1. Long-term trends of the quality of COSMO-EU forecast expressed as the universal score COSI and others scores for temperature 2 m and wind 10 m - related to A global score for COSMO models - recommendations from “The Score Meeting of 20th August 2007 in Zurich” Ulrich Damrath

2. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 2 Outlook The COSMO-Index COSI Time series of the index and ist parts @ DWD starting @ 2003 Time series of RMSE-values starting @ 2000 Time series of BIAS-values starting @ 1994

3. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 3 Approach Application of a score like the UK-index - basic values Continuous elements Wind Skill score for wind and continuous elements related to persistence Skill score for categorical elements related to chance

4. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 4 Approach Application of a score like the UK-index - final score

5. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 5 Scores in MOVI and UKMO Continuous parameters: Reduction of variance RV = 1 – (RMSE prog / RMSE ref) 2 where ref = persistence Categorical parameters: ETS ETS = (R – „chance“) / (T –“chance“) R= number of obs events correctly forecast T = number of events which were either observed or forecasted  global score S like COSMO-index COSI = S/S 0 x100

6. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 6 Parameters total cloud amount [threshold: 0-2, 3-6, 7-8 temperature [t2m, later: tmin, tmax] 10m- windvector precipitation [thresholds: 0.2, 2, 10 mm/6h]

7. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 7 Verification frequency Every 3h T2m, 10m-wind and cloudiness: @ 00, 03,…, 18, 21 UTC later on: tmin & tmax over 12h 6h-sums: precipitation

8. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 8 Persistence one day before forecast day Cloud cover wind and temperature 6h-sums: precipitation Verification frequency 0312061518092124 12061824 Forecast day 0312061518092124

9. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 9 Verification frequency 0312061518092124 12061824 Forecast day Persistence day before forecast day 0312061518092124

10. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 10 Final definition of the score: 1 Continouos elements, sum over 8 time steps: (start: vv=3, end: vv=24, step: 3) Equal weights for all forecast times!

11. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 11 Final definition of the score - 2 Categorical elements, sum over N time steps: (start: vv=vvb, end: vv=vve, step: vvs) Cloud cover: vvb=3, vve=24 vvs=3 Precipitation: vvb=6, vve=24 vvs=6 Equal weights for all forecast times and categories!

12. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 12 Final definition of the score - 3 Sum over all elements: Equal weights for all elements! COSMO-index COSI = S/S 0 x100: This is not defined up to now because there is no agreement concerning the date for S 0. But it seems to be no major problem..

13. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 13 German list: 10015 Helgoland............. 10028 St Peter-Ording........ 10035 Schleswig............. 10055 Fehmarn................ 10091 Arkona................ 10113 Norderney.............. 10129 Bremerhaven........... 10131 Cuxhaven............... 10147 Hamburg Fuhlsbuettel.. 10161 Boltenhagen............ 10170 Rostock-Warnemuende.... 10184 Greifswald............. 10200 Emden-Flugplatz....... 10224 Bremen................. 10270 Neuruppin.............. 10291 Angermuende............ 10315 Muenster/Osnabrueck.... 10321 Diepholz............... 10338 Hannover............... 10348 Braunschweig........... 10361 Magdeburg.............. 10379 Potsdam................ 10382 Berlin-Tegel........... 10384 Berlin-Tempelhof....... 10385 Berlin-Schoenefeld..... 10393 Lindenberg............. 10400 Duesseldorf............ 10427 Kahler Asten........... 10453 Brocken................ 10460 Artern................. 10469 Leipzig-Schkeuditz..... 10480 Oschatz................ 10488 Dresden-Klotzsche...... 10496 Cottbus................ 10499 Goerlitz............... 10501 Aachen................. 10506 Nuerburg-Barweiler..... 10513 Koeln/Bonn............. 10532 Giessen................ 10544 Wasserkuppe............ 10548 Meiningen.............. 10554 Erfurt-Bindersleben.... 10557 Neuhaus a.R........... 10567 Gera-Leumnitz.......... 10577 Chemnitz............... 10578 Fichtelberg............ 10609 Trier-Petrisberg....... 10616 Hahn................... 10637 Frankfurt/M.-Flughafen. 10655 Wuerzburg.............. 10685 Hof.................... 10688 Weiden................. 10708 Saarbruecken-Ensheim... 10738 Stuttgart-Echterdingen. 10763 Nuernberg.............. 10776 Regensburg............. 10788 Straubing.............. 10805 Lahr................... 10836 Stoetten............... 10852 Augsburg............... 10870 Muenchen, Flughafen.... 10895 Fuerstenzell........... 10929 Konstanz............... 10946 Kempten................ 10962 Hohenpeissenberg.......

14. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 14 COSI@DWD T 2m V 3.22 V3.19 COSMO-EU SSO

15. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 15 COSI@DWD - Scores for day 1

16. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 16 COSI@DWD - Scores for day 2

17. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 17 COSI@DWD - Scores for day 3

18. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 18 COSI@DWD - Scores for different forecast times

19. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 19 COSI@DWD - Cloud cover for day 1

20. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 20 COSI@DWD - Cloud cover for day 2

21. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 21 COSI@DWD - Cloud cover for day 3

22. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 22 COSI@DWD - Wind vector for day 1

23. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 23 RMSE - Wind speed for vv=12

24. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 24 RMSE - Wind speed for vv=24

25. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 25 RMSE - Wind speed for vv=36

26. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 26 COSI@DWD - Wind vector for day 2

27. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 27 COSI@DWD - Wind vector for day 3

28. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 28 COSI@DWD - Temperature for day 1

29. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 29 RMSE - Temperature

30. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 30 BIAS - Temperature

31. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 31 RMSE - Temperature

32. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 32 BIAS - Temperature

33. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 33 COSI@DWD - Temperature for day 2

34. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 34 COSI@DWD - Temperature for day 3

35. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 35 COSI@DWD - Precipitation for day 1

36. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 36 COSI@DWD - Precipitation for day 2

37. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 37 COSI@DWD - Precipitation for day 3

38. U. Damrath: Long term time series of forecast quality of COSMO-EU - COSMO GM, Offenbach 2009 38 Summary Replacement of LM with COSMO-EU lead at first to remarkable deterioration of COSI. Main effect: worse results concerning wind which is the element that contributes most to the score (not in the sense of the weight but in the sense of it has a higher value compared to the other elements) A lot of model changes lead to a remarkable improvement of COSI. Changes of cloud microphysics brought essential improvement of temperature forecasts. The new diagnostic scheme for T2m amplified this effect. The new SSO-scheme was a jump! Now COSI is better for all days compared with the beginning of calculation of the score.