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COSMO Workpackage No. 5.1.8 13.04.2015 - 1 - First Results on Verification of LMK Test Runs Basing on SYNOP Data Lenz, Claus-Jürgen; Damrath, Ulrich

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Presentation on theme: "COSMO Workpackage No. 5.1.8 13.04.2015 - 1 - First Results on Verification of LMK Test Runs Basing on SYNOP Data Lenz, Claus-Jürgen; Damrath, Ulrich"— Presentation transcript:

1 COSMO Workpackage No First Results on Verification of LMK Test Runs Basing on SYNOP Data Lenz, Claus-Jürgen; Damrath, Ulrich

2 COSMO Workpackage No Overview survey on LMK test runs performed verification results summary and outlook

3 COSMO Workpackage No Survey on LMK experiments performed (1) - center of model area 10° E, 50° N x 461 grid points horizontally - grid length: 2.8 km - 50 vertical layers, height of lowest layer: 40 m, height of lowest half level: 22 m above ground - values for initialisation and boundaries from operational LM run

4 COSMO Workpackage No Survey on LMK experiments performed (2) testsuites performed for winter (Januar 2004)

5 COSMO Workpackage No Survey on LMK experiments performed (3) testsuites for summer (July 2004) und autumn (September 2004) - time integration: TVD Runge-Kutta 3. order, time step: Δt = 30 s - scheme for horizontal advection: upwind 5. order - prognostic calculation of precipitation - thermodynamics: advection of T=T 0 +T* - relaxation at lateral boundaries: explicit formulated cosine function

6 COSMO Workpackage No LM and LMK: TSS precipitation rates > 0.1 mm/h (top left), > 2 mm/h (top right), > 10 mm/h (left) January 2004, 00 h runs

7 COSMO Workpackage No Frequency Bias (FBI) for coverage due to low clouds July 2004, 00 h runs cloud coverage <= 2/8 cloud coverage >= 6/8

8 COSMO Workpackage No Bias (mean error) for 2 m temperature, July 2004, 00 h runs

9 COSMO Workpackage No LM and LMK: TSS for precipitation rates > 0.1 mm/h (top left), > 2 mm/h (top right), > 10 mm/h (left) September 2004, 00 h runs

10 COSMO Workpackage No Bias (mean error) for 2 m temperature, September 2004, 00 h runs

11 COSMO Workpackage No sensitivity of TSS for precipitation with respect to Latent Heat Nudging July 2004, 12 h runs prec. > 0.1 mm/h prec. > 2 mm/h prec. > 10 mm/h

12 COSMO Workpackage No sensitivity of TSS for precipitation with respect to interpolation method LMK, experiment 701 September 2004, 12 h runs prec. > 0.1 mm/h prec. > 2 mm/h prec. > 10 mm/h

13 COSMO Workpackage No Summary: - gusts (not shown here): enhanced forecast accuracy in LMK due to finer grid resolution - precipitation: results of the smaller scale model lead to partly better verification results than the LM routine forecast - different tests (e.g. introduction of a parameterization scheme for shallow convection, data assimilation) lead to higher accuracy for some parameters, but other parameters may be affected negatively - interpolation method during verification: higher TSS values at small precipitation rates and lower TSS values at higher precipitation rates using a larger averaging area than the nearest grid point

14 COSMO Workpackage No Outlook: - further continuous work on verification of past and future LMK experiments - development of a tool for application of conditional verification is ongoing - calculation of synthetic radar images using the radar simulation model by Haase (1998) - verification of LM and LMK using the synthetic radar images


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