1. Measuring Cohort Change in South Dakota Counties Eric Guthrie 2014 Applied Demography Conference San Antonio, Texas

2. Rural Decline, the usual story…

3. Rural Decline and Urbanization The best and the most promising students go off to college or leave to pursue other interests, or join the military, and seldom return. The plague of rural poverty and drug abuse has taken its toll on some of the most rural areas.

4. Rural Population Rebound The other story you may have heard is that of rural resurgence. Vibrant communities and areas that are attracting people to a high quality way of life where there is a sense of community. Population rebounds of the 1970s and 1990s.

5. Research Question Is there a generational difference in the migration patterns in rural South Dakota?

6. South Dakota Population Over Time

7. South Dakota’s Rural/Urban Mix

8. Beale Code Descriptions Metropolitan Counties CodeDescription 1Counties in metro areas of 1 million population or more 2Counties in metro areas of 250,000 to 1 million population 3*Counties in metro areas of fewer than 250,000 population Nonmetropolitan Counties 4Urban population of 20,000 or more, adjacent to a metro area 5*Urban population of 20,000 or more, not adjacent to a metro area 6*Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, adjacent to a metro area 7*Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, not adjacent to a metro area 8*Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, adjacent to a metro area 9*Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, not adjacent to a metro area

9. South Dakota’s Rural/Urban Mix

10. South Dakota Population by Beale Code

11. Average Population by Beale Code

12. How am I defining the generations GenerationBornAge in 2010 CensusCommon Generation Name 1930Between 1920 and 193080-90Good Warriors 1940Between 1930 and 194070-80Lucky Few 1950Between 1940 and 195060-70Lucky Few/Baby Boomers 1960Between 1950 and 196050-60Baby Boomers 1970Between 1960 and 197040-50Baby Boomers/Gen X 1980Between 1970 and 198030-40Gen X

13. Building the Generations I used the data from the 9 decennial censuses that have occurred since 1930. I made tables that put the generations together such that the population for one cohort was matched with the cohort ten years older in the following census. I did this for each of South Dakota’s 66 counties.

14. Building the Generations For example the 1930 generation was built my using the populations from the following cohorts: CensusAge Cohorts Used 19300-9 194010-19 195020-29 196030-39 197040-49 198050-59 199060-69 200070-79 201080-89

15. Calculating the Rates of Change Fairly straight forward calculation for all of the cohorts for all of the counties in South Dakota first by sex then in total. P (X+10) -P X ______________ P X

16. Results Is there a difference between the cohort change patterns for people currently between 30 & 40 (generation 1980) and 40 & 50 (generation 1970) and generations 1930 through 1960 in rural South Dakota?

17. Counties with significant positive differences between older and younger Generations CountySig.Beale Aurora.001 9 Beadle.041 7 Brule.046 9 Butte.039 6 Campbell*.017 9 Clark.016 9 Deuel.019 9 Douglas.008 9 Edmunds.032 9 CountySig.Beale Faulk.049 9 Gregory.006 9 Hamlin.006 9 Hanson.002 8 Harding.030 9 Hutchinson.033 8 Jerauld.023 9 Kingsbury.026 9 Lincoln.001 3 CountySig.Beale Marshall.024 9 McCook.002 3 McPherson.048 9 Mellette.000 9 Turner.036 3 Union.007 3 Walworth*.031 7 Ziebach.007 8

18. Results by Beale Code Beale Code Number of Significant Results 916 83 72 61 50 34

19. The results for the cohort in their 40s was less significant, but there are some. CountySig.Beale Beadle.000 7 Bon Homme †.050 9 Brown.003 5 Brule.045 9 Grant.006 7 Lincoln.038 3 Marshall.049 9 Perkins.042 8 Spink.003 9 Beale Code Number of Significant Results 94 81 72 60 51 31

20. Some of the most significant results Harding County

21. Some of the most significant results Butte County

22. Thank you I could go on for quite a while, but that is all I have time for today. Thank you very much for the opportunity to present my research to you today. Are there any questions?

23. General References Carr, P. J., & Kefalas, M. (2009). Hollowing out the middle : the rural brain drain and what it means for America. Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press Economic Research Service. (2013) 2013 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes. United States Department of Agriculture. Accessed on October 25, 2013. Retrieved from http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/rural-urban-continuum-codes.aspx. Johnson, K. M., & Fuguitt, G. V. (2000). Continuity and Change in Rural Migration Patterns, 1950- 1995. Rural Sociology, 65(1), 27-49. Michael McCurry, E. G., et al. (Forthcoming). Population Projections for South Dakota and its Counties. Reding, N. (2009). Methland : the death and life of an American small town (1st U.S. ed.). New York: Bloomsbury. Winchester, B. (2012). Continuing the Trend: The Brain Gain of the Newcomers. In M. V. Joyce Hoelting (Ed.), (pp. 23). Minnesota: Extension Center for Community Vitality.

24. Census References US Census Bureau. (1930/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org. US Census Bureau. (1940/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org. US Census Bureau. (1950/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org. US Census Bureau. (1960/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org. US Census Bureau. (1980/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org. US Census Bureau. (1990/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org. US Census Bureau. (2000). Census of Population and Housing. Retrieved from http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_Q TP1&prodType=table. US Census Bureau. (2010). Census of Population and Housing. Retrieved from http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_SF1_Q TP1&prodType=table.