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1. Day trading, short term trading, options trading, and futures trading are extremely risky undertakings. They generally are not appropriate for someone.

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Presentation on theme: "1. Day trading, short term trading, options trading, and futures trading are extremely risky undertakings. They generally are not appropriate for someone."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Day trading, short term trading, options trading, and futures trading are extremely risky undertakings. They generally are not appropriate for someone with limited capital, little or no trading experience, and/ or a low tolerance for risk. Never execute a trade unless you can afford to and are prepared to lose your entire investment. All trading operations involve serious risks, and you can lose your entire investment. No trades are recommendations or advice and we cannot be sued for losses of capital. All trades are for educational purposes only. Contact your broker or RIA for execution, margin, and other capital requirements. Everyone watching presentation adheres to ALL disclaimers on www.optionhacker.com and www.keeneonthemarket.com RISK DISCLAIMER

3 Andrew Keene - Studied Finance at the University of Illinois before becoming a market maker on the trading floor at the CBOE.

4 Andrew Keene -Now trades and moderates From San Diego,CA. -Regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, BNN Canada. -Floor Trader @ CBOE for 10+ Years

5 James Ramelli Active Trader in Futures, FX, Stocks & Commodities and Options Regular Contributor to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, BNN Canada. Writes for Futures Magazine, Active Trader, Resource Investor, CME OpenMarkets

6 The Ichimoku works BEST for Forex

7 "The key to trading success is emotional discipline." - Paul Tudor Jones Remember even the best trading plan doesn’t work if you don’t follow it.

8 The Ichimoku cloud is a technical analysis method that uses the past, present, and future to help traders identify at a single glance if a security is in bullish or bearish territory. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo actually translates to “One Glance Equilibrium Chart” The cloud is made up of 6 key components, each of which we will examine individually. When combined, these components construct the Ichimoku Cloud. 8

9 The Tenkan-sen Line: Short Term Trend: Similar to 10 Period MA = (highest high + lowest low)/2 over the last 9 periods 9 tenken-sen line (red line)

10 The Kinjun-sen Line: Longer Term Trend: Similar to 30 DMA = (highest high + lowest low)/2 over the past 26 periods 10 Kinjun-sen line (green line)

11 Senkou Span A: Future Short Term Trend = (tenkan-sen + kinjun-sen)/2 plotted 26 bars in the future 11 Senkou Span A

12 Senkou Span B: Future Long Term Trend: Fib 50% Retracement = (highest high + lowest low)/2 over the past 52 bars plotted 26 bars in the future 12 Senkou Span B

13 Kumo “the cloud”: How Hard or Easy it is to Break the Trend 13 Kumo

14 Chinkou Span Line: How does the Today’s Price compare to last Month = current bar’s closing price plotted 26 bars back 14 Chinkou Span Line

15 Remember, each component tells us something different. I can use them as different levels of confirmation and as a way rule out weaker setups I can use different time frames as levels of confirmation depending on the type of trade I am looking for. 15

16 Why the FOREX Market is the best market to TRADE especially for Ichimoku Cloud

17 Forex – This is the biggest market in the world. This means that it is the most liquid most saleable market around. You can take bets of nearly any size in the forex market so any trader of any account size or skill level can trade.

18 Forex – This is the biggest market in the world. Forex Markets are Used by: Large banks and institutions to hedge and speculate Multinational firms that collect revenue in multiple currencies Retail traders speculating on price movement

19 Understanding the Forex Market: There are both forex brokers and forex market makers that a retail trader can trade with. Brokers charge commissions (execute your trades in broader market) Market makers take the other side of your trades (profit off of the spread, trade commission free)

20 Trading With Leverage: The leverage brokers offer retail traders in forex in unmatched in any other market. Brokers offer as much as 200:1 Leverage Forex does not fluctuate like stock, that is why brokers allow this much leverage.

21 Get the BEST Possible Signals in the FOREX Markets NOW

22 A Swing Trade can have a large time frame: Swing trades have a holding period of one day to 6 months. Outside of 6 months this becomes more of an “investment” or a “position.” http://bit.ly/1wwCyxf

23 Increase Probability With the Cloud: By using confirmation and the proper time frames I can confirm setups and take the highest probability swings. http://bit.ly/1wwCyxf

24 Scaling in Swing Trades: In swing trading it is important to be able to scale in and out of trades. If I buy a 1 lot option I cannot scale out of the trade With the leverage forex brokers give me I can put on a position with any amount of risk and still be able to take multiple targets

25 I cannot use too fast of a time frame: Forex trades best on the 4 hour bar: The 4 hour bar is when the trend starts to get smoother There are less traps on the 4hr bar. Higher time frames can then be used for confirmation. Setups with confirmation have a higher probability of success.

26 Forex On The Cloud: Forex trends very well and responds well to technical levels. Many institutional trades are made based on technical levels. Look at the trends on the 4hr bar in AUD/USD

27 The cloud catches several profitable downside breaks this year. The 4hr bar did not produce many traps. AUD/USD Example

28 USD/CAD Example The 5 min bar produces too much chop and way too many traps, trends don't develop well.

29 USD/CAD Example We can see the broader trends on the 4hr bar. My stops may be wider but I will have less traps

30 The BEST Signals/Pairs with BEST ROI first Time EVER shown

31 Tested Setups: We tested setups against historical data to determine over the past 3 years what the most profitable setups are. We have 3 different setups we tested and found positive results with. Each setup uses the Ichimoku Cloud to determine entry and find confirmation

32 Tested Setups: In testing we wanted our results to be as smooth as possible so we removed EUR and CHF. Removing any pair tied to either of these increased our ROI and win rate. Stop losses and profit targets were calculated the same way every time

33 Aggressive Trading Plan: All signals are taken on breaks of the 4 hour bar No extra confirmation is required. Pairs for this Strategy: GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/CAD GBP/JPY AUD/CAD AUD/NZD CAD/JPY NZD/USD

34 Aggressive Trading Plan: With this more aggressive trading strategy a trader will take every break of the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4 hour bar regardless of confirmation on broader time frames. Lets look at some examples on the following slides

35 GBP/USD Example There are several large breakouts on the cloud Notice that there are some traps on this chart, mostly to the long side…

36 Aggressive Trading Plan: The trades are entered on the break of the 4hr bar on the Ichimoku Cloud. Stop loss is above/below the cloud Stop loss is set on the onset of the trade Profit targets are placed at the onset of the trade: Target #1 50% of stop Target #2 100% of stop Target #3 150% of stop Target #4 200% of stop

37 AUD/USD Example The short entry is at the close of the 4hr bar. Stop is above the cloud +20 ticks

38 Aggressive Trading Plan: The signal called for entry at the close of the bar at.77170 with a stop at.77645 (cloud + 20 ticks) As soon as I am in the trade my profit and stop loss orders are placed GTC. Target #1 50% of stop: 0.76933 Target #2 100% of stop: 0.76696 Target #3 150% of stop: 0.76459 Target #4 200% of stop: 0.76222 All 4 targets hit in just over 1 day!

39 AUD/USD Example The short entry is at the close of the 4hr bar. Stop is above the cloud +20 ticks All 4 of these targets were hit.

40 We tested this simple strategy on the 9 pairs listed earlier with great results. Over the past 3 years: Signals: 366 Target #1:59.24% Target #2 50.21% Target #3 37.61% Target #4 28.78% Stop Losses: Cloud + 20 Ticks ROI: 34.94%

41 More conservative plan This produced a lot of signals, a trade every few days. A more conservative trader can look for Triple Confirmation We tested the same 4hr bar entry setups but used multiple levels of confirmation to rule out weaker setups. Look at an example and the results…

42 CAD/USD Example Breaks of the cloud are checked against wider time frames. This setup was on Mar 6 th.

43 CAD/USD Example We are above the cloud on the daily bar, this is confirmation. We now check for the same confirmation on a weekly bar

44 CAD/USD Example We are above the cloud on the weekly bar, this is final confirmation. With all levels confirmed I want to take the trade.

45 Confirmation: When swing trading we want ALL of these charts to line up, if they don’t then it is not the highest probability trade setup. All levels line up here so I want to take the trade.

46 CAD/USD Example Enter at the close of the bar 1.25631 with a stop below the cloud +20 pips at 1.25040

47 Conservative Trading Plan: The signal called for entry at the close of the bar 1.25631 with a stop below the cloud +20 pips at 1.25040 As soon as I am in the trade my profit and stop loss orders are placed GTC. Target #1 50% of stop: 1.25926 Target #2 100% of stop: 1.26221 Target #3 150% of stop: 1.26516 Target #4 200% of stop: 1.26811 It took over 2 days but all 4 targets were hit!

48 CAD/USD Example All Targets hit and never comes close to a stop.

49 Triple Confirmation gives us a smaller ROI but more consistent results Over the past 3 years: Signals: 34 Target #1: 73.53% Target #2 64.71% Target #3 50.00% Target #4 38.24% Stop Losses: Cloud + 20 Ticks ROI: 16.00%

50 Swing Trading Forex Trades

51 The Long term Trading Plan: We also tested signals off of the daily bar with confirmation. These signals are longer tem trades than those based off of the 4hr bar. Daily bar signals entry and the weekly and monthly provide the confirmation. This is for the most conservative trader as the holding period will be the longest for these trades.

52 GBP/USD Example Break to the downside on the daily, need confirmation on weekly and monthly

53 GBP/USD Example We are well below the cloud on the weekly bar. Confirmation

54 GBP/USD Example We are well below the cloud on the monthly bar as well this is the final level of confirmation. I want to take the trade off of the daily bar signal

55 GBP/USD Example Short the close of this bar at 1.50204 with a stop at 1.53905 (cloud + 20 ticks)

56 Longer Term Trading Plan: The signal called for a short of the close of this bar at 1.50204 with a stop at 1.53905 (cloud + 20 ticks) As soon as I am in the trade my profit and stop loss orders are placed GTC. Target #1 50% of stop: 1.48354 Target #2 100% of stop: 1.46504 Target #3 150% of stop: 1.44654 Target #4 200% of stop: 1.42804 So far 2 targets have been hit, remember this is a longer term strategy.

57 GBP/USD Example 2 Targets already hit, remember this is the longer term strategy. A trader can have on a small amount of risk for weeks or months

58 While this is a longer term plan it produces VERY consistent results Over the past 3 years: Signals: 15 Target #1:93.33% Target #2 86.67% Target #3 53.33% Target #4 26.67% Stop Losses: Cloud + 20 Ticks ROI: 15.26%

59 Only 15 Signals? The longer term plan produces the fewest number of signals but the most consistent results. For a more conservative, less active trader this is a strategy that is much easier to manage and still very profitable.

60 Summary of Topics Forex is the biggest most liquid market in the world. Traders of any skill level can trade forex with any account size. The Ichimoku cloud works best in trending markets making it very powerful for forex. Forex markets tend to respond well to technical levels used by many traders. The best signals in forex come off of the 4hr bar. This is the most profitable time frame for forex but for more conservative or beginner traders confirmation can be used. Confirmed setups have a higher probability of success, it helps a trader focus on the best setups. Stops and profit targets are always set the same way Orders are GTC orders, no moving targets, this removes emotion from the equation. Forex trades can be carried for a very long time with a small amount of capital.


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