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Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 1 Human Appropriation of NPP (HANPP) An accounting framwork for analysing land use.

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Presentation on theme: "Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 1 Human Appropriation of NPP (HANPP) An accounting framwork for analysing land use."— Presentation transcript:

1 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 1 Human Appropriation of NPP (HANPP) An accounting framwork for analysing land use processes in the Earth system Karlheinz Erb Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna in collaboration with: H. Haberl, V. Gaube, S. Gingrich, C. Plutzar, F. Krausmann, W. Lucht, A. Bondeau, et al. GEOSS support for IPCC assessments Geneva, Feb. 3, 2011

2 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 2 Overview Background: the integrated land system & the current mainstream state-of-the-art in LULC science The framework Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production: conceptual background & method Results: Global HANPP 2000 Examples: global production-consumption link, global bioenergy potentials Conclusions: data requirements, gaps, challenges and opportunites

3 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 3 State-of-the-art of LU science –Classification systems creating nominal-scale data –Focus on land cover (biophysical structures, ecological systems) –Focus on forest / non-forest dynamics –Strategy: increasing spatial resolution From current mainstram land-use research towards an integrated understanding of land use + Focus on society-nature interactions + Broad range of land uses + Continuous (rational) scales + Explicitly addressing a wide range of spatial scales

4 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 4 Bridging disciplinary boundaries: the integrated land system SocietyEcosystems Outputs - Benefits Inputs - Investments management Steffen et al. Science 1998Matthews et al. 2000

5 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 5 HANPP – the human appropriation of net primary production Society Outputs - Benefits Inputs - Investments Potential NPP Actual NPP NPP remaining after harvest dNPP LC NPP h HANPP Ecosystems Change induced through land use natural ecosystem managed ecosystem

6 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 6 Data integration NPP 0 : LPJ-DGVM Non-used areas Irrigation Degradation Erb et al., J of Land Use Science, 2007 NPP act N PP h

7 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 7 HANPP%: Aggregated effect of land use and harvest > Result: Global HANPP 2000 NPP LC %: Productivity changes due to land coversions > Source: Haberl et al PNAS 2007 Krausmann et al., 2008 Land use activities Biomass consumption

8 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 8 Summary of results HANPP 2000 Global HANPP amounts to 24% of NPP0 (aboveground 30%) Agriculture is the most important driver: –Cropping and grazing contribute 3/4 of global HANPP. –Feeding of livestock consumes 2/3 of the total amount of biomass used by humanity Considerable regional variation of HANPP, mainly depending on –Consumption level (per capita HANPP in industrialized countries is about twice that of developing countries) –Population density –Technology: yields

9 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 9 HANPP data integration: old and new challenges EcosystemsSocioeconomic Systems Area Land cover e.g. Modis GLC2000 Globcover Land use e.g. Census statistics: agriculture, forestry, grazing, settlements e.g. national economic data (SNA) Flows Ecosystem flows DGVMs: GPP, NPP, Respiration, water, nutrients Inputs - Outputs (Census) Statistics: agriculture, forestry, grazing Socioeconomic models CONSISTENCY ! CONSISTENCY ! CONSISTENCY

10 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 10 The HANPP framework: Data integration Consistency –extents and flows: yields [=flow per area and year] –Prioritizing: correspondence of (national) land use census statistics and the (national) spatial extent more important than the accuracy of spatial information. But: how to deal with flawed census data? Comprehensiveness –all relevant land use types, inclusive non-land-use areas: –100% of each gridcell

11 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 11 Applications

12 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 12 HANPP Example I Linking ecosystem impacts and socio-economic drivers eHANPP consumption Source: Erb et al, EE 2009a, Erb et al., 2009b

13 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 13 Difference of production and consumption of embodied HANPP Source: Erb et al,EE 2009 Example I Linking ecosystem impacts and socio-economic drivers

14 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 14 Example I: Conclusions A considerable flow: international transfer = 1.7 PgC/yr in 2000 [global deforestation: ~1.5 PgC/yr], increasing Large, densely populated countries, which do not yet participate, will soon do so (e.g. China, India) Drivers AND consequences of land use are global. No simple causal chains between drivers and associated impacts Sustainability challenge: –High degree of international interdependence (vulnerability, resilience) –high risk of shifting the environmental burdens to distant locations and withdrawing it from environmental legislation –markets will not minimize burdens, as many ecosystems services have no price – need for global monitoring and management of biomass demand & supply

15 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 15 Example II Global bioenergy potentials

16 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 16 A scoping study: Explore the scale and option space on basis of HANPP analyses Systematic combination of existing (e.g. FAO) assumptions and 2 – 4 modulations on developments until 2050 of: diets (4) livestock efficiency (2) agricultural yields (4) cropland expansion (2) 64 combinations (scenarios)

17 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 17 Results: Feasibility Analysis: 43 of 64 scenarios feasible Probably feasible Feasible Highly feasible Not feasible Source: Erb et al., 2009c For feasible scenarios: bioenergy potential 1)on free cropland 2)on high-quality grazing land 3)crop residues

18 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 18 Results Energy crop area [km²] (2.1 – (6.3) – 10.9 mio. km²) Energy crop yield [gC/m²/yr] Histogramm: feasible scenarios Source: Erb et al., forthcoming Haberl et al., 2010, COSUST Haberl et al., 2011, Biomass & Bioenergy Primary energy supply

19 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 19 Example II: Conclusions Feeding a growing world population is – in principle - possible with ecologically sound agricultural production. Dietary levels will be most important. Energy crop potentials – conventional wisdom needs to be reconsidered: Sustainability constraints are decisive: –Conservation / biodiversity –Subsistence agriculture, food security, etc. –GHG balance Climate change impacts are poorly understood but could be strong Bioenergy and globalization: Largest bioenergy potentials in Subsaharan Africa and Latin America: Caution – problem shifting! Cascade utilization – focus on recycling, re-use and efficiency improvement of biomass flow-chains

20 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 20 Conclusions: HANPP studies illustrate Link land use – land cover is complex: no easy look-up table. Spatial seggregation between appropriation and consumption: Issues of scale, governance: drivers as well as consequences of land use are global. Important for the construction of causal chains Future biomass demand-supply: Options/potentials for sustainable biomass utilization are limited – requires integrated perspectives

21 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 21 Data challenges... Land-use assessments require land-cover and additional (socio-economic) information Many socio-economic drivers, mechanisms, processes of LU (change) and their impacts are not (yet) well documented. Basic research (still) required. List of EHV not ready yet. –Links to MaB (UNESCO), LTER-LTSER The spatial and temporal scales of natural and socioeconomic processes are different –Increasing spatial resolution is only a partial solution: the gain in detail allows to better describe LC, but contextual information is required to assess LU; social systems are not organized in grids Move beyond the S-o-A in LU-LC data: consistency and comprehensiveness abandon hybrid, ambiguous legends complement dominance classes or discrete classification schemes with continuous parameters. Gradients are equally important, for LC and LU move beyond agriculture, deforestation, and urban land use land management is key

22 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | and opportunities Data gaps/deficits are ubiquitous: missing socio-economic data flawed, incomplete census data...and RS can contribute –forestry (used vs. unused forests, forest degradation) –grazing (intensity, spatial pattern of grazing, biomass harvest through grazing; effects of grazing) –cropland fallow (where, frequency) –rural infrastructure –soil/vegetation degradation (where? how much land? how intensive?) –( )NPP, ( )Biomass stocks yield the mutual benefits of combining RS data and ground data

23 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 23 Thank you for your attention! The End Further information/maps/data: ERC Start Grant LUISE

24 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 24

25 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 25 Explore the scale and option space: a NPP perspective NPP0 NPPact Harvest Solid consistent empirical data- bases for 2000 Land use: Consistency between pixels (5 min, 10x10 km) and statistical data at country level (cropland and woodlands according to FAO, FRA und TBFRA). Erb et al J. Land Use Sci. 2, National biomass balances : Production and consumption of biomass: Feed balances, processing losses, trade, incl. trends Krausmann et al Ecol. Econ. 65, HANPP: Spatially explicit integration of NPP flows (LPJ-DGVM) and anthropogenic biomass flows (5 min, 10x10 km). Haberl et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104,

26 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 26 Grazing livestock grazing is the largest fraction of the global biomass harvest (32%), a major driver of the human transformation of terrestrial ecosystems Statistics comprise only market feed – no information on grazed biomass available. Grazing Gap must be modelled as difference between demand & market feed supply very loose relation of land use and land cover (occurs in almost all ecosystems (hampers application of remote sensing techniques) Census statistics are of limited practicability, inconsistent, heterogenous definitions (e.g. artificial grasslands vs. natural grasslands) Grazing Gap Source: Krausmann et al. Ecological Economics 2008

27 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 27 Data Gap: grazing land Result Remaining area = Grazing land

28 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 28 Estimates on global grazing lands

29 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 29 Grazing land Russ Fed. India Egypt Finnland Norway China Mexico Brazil Saudi Arabia Western Sahara Yemen

30 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 30 consequences of land use: Biodiversity S pecies richness is well correlated with NPP t – indirect support for HANPP/biodiversity hypothesis Case study 1: Correlation between NPP t and autotroph species richness (5 taxa) on 38 plots sized 600x600 m, East Austria Haberl et al., 2004, Agric., Ecosyst. & Envir. 102, p213ff Case study 2: Correlation between NPP t and breeding bird richness in Austria, 328 randomly chosen 1x1 km squares. Haberl et al., Agric., Ecosyst. & Envir. 110, p119ff Case study 3: Correlation between NPP t and vertebrate richness in the Americas, 10,000 randomly chosen 5min gridcells Haberl et al., forthcoming = 0.708

31 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 31

32 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 32


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