1. High-resolution Climate Projections for Vietnam: Facilitating effective climate adaptation Dr Jack Katzfey December 2012
climate adaptation flagship

2. Project aims Improve Vietnam's understanding of climate change
Integrate past and current research for a more complete assessment of the potential effects of climate change
Provide information necessary for appropriate planning and investment to adapt to climate change
Develop innovative communication tools to ensure that the data generated is widely accessible
Capacity building
Develop collaboration

3. Approach/Plan
Providing an evidence base for planning for Climate change
Collaborate with IMHEN and HUS to increase technical skills and strengthen capacity to develop climate change scenarios
Incorporate the latest global climate model information
Use a number of different regional climate models to help capture the range of factors that contribute to climate change and its impacts at high resolution
Build on existing research and analysis
Promote a comprehensive approach that can be applied consistently to avoid duplication of future effort

4. Project components Component 1: Observations/analyses/drivers
Component 2: Dynamical downscaling
Component 3: Analysis of climate projections
Component 4: Regional sea-level projection
Component 5: Assessing response options from climate change projections
Component 6: Communication and management

5. Project outcomes
Capture and analysis of existing data in order to better understand the current climate and its trends
Completion of high-resolution dynamical downscaled projections for a range of scenarios and methods
Analysis of the implications of the results for the various regions of Vietnam
Building the capacity of Vietnam to analyse, understand and complete future climate change projection
Communication of the results to key stakeholders in order that the results are used in adaptation planning

6. To provide updated climate change projections for Vietnam
To provide basic information assessing CC impacts and
to develop action plans for responding to CC
Method
Dynamical downscaling Tm Tx 6

7. Component 1: Observations/analyses/drivers
Collect and analyze station observations for current observed trends
Create gridded downscaled analyses
Determine key climate drivers for Vietnam
Monsoon
Tropical Cyclones
El Nino

8. Observed trends in temperature and rainfall

9. Inter-annual variability of TC0 anomaly and SSTA - Annual
Trends in East Sea surface temperatures and tropical storms
No_TC_0_vs_annual: aim to show that the trend in SST over the East Sea may cause the increase of TS over the region.
the two trend lines has similar slope ( i.e and ) which suggests that the two time series
increase at the similar rate.
The correlation coefficient between the two timeseries is which is above 95th
significant level (0.25 for N=60, here is N=67 years)
Inter-annual variability of TC0 anomaly and SSTA - Annual

10. Component 2: Dynamical Downscaling
Select six CMIP5 global climate models to downscale for two representation concentration pathways (4.5: low and 8.5: high)
CSIRO will run the stretched-grid, Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model at about 10 km resolution over Vietnam
HUS will run two regional climate models (WRF and RegCM) over Vietnam at 20 km
IMHEN will compare new results with previous studies
Access and use other downscaled data as available

11. Recent news
The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C, 2012, Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew, Tom Boden, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Corinne Le Quéré, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach and Charlie Wilson, Nature Climate Change

12. Annual cycle of precipitation (previous run by IMHEN)
20/04/2017
Double-peaks
Peak magnitude ~ 40%
The model also can capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation well
Tend to be wetter than OBS during Feb-Aug 12

13. Variability of JJA rainfall (IMHEN)
20/04/2017
The PRECIS model provides a reasonable simulation of IAV of precipitation compared to observed data
annual rainfall anomaly 13

14. Number of CMIP5 global models agreeing on future rainfall change (RCP8
Number of CMIP5 global models agreeing on future rainfall change (RCP8.5 – high, end of century)
First Intermonsoon
Southwest monsoon
Annual
Second Intermonsoon
Northeast monsoon
Decrease
Increase

15. Downscaling Global climate model (GCM) projections
6 GCMs and 2 RCPs (4.5, 8.5)
Driven by sea surface temperatures (SST) only
CCAM 50 km
CCAM 10 km
GCM SST

16. Vietnam and orography
Orography at 10 km resolution

17. SUMMER MONSOON MEAN RAINFALL
April to September
High rainfall on the windward side and less rain on the lee ward side (rain shadow)

18. Component 3: Analysis of climate projections
IMHEN will lead in analysis of climate projections from downscaled simulations
All will help analyze high-resolution projections and summarize in final report and scientific journal articles
Focus on climate change projections for periods around 2050 and 2090:
Changes in mean climate, seasonality and extreme events
Ensembles of model simulations to assess the range of uncertainty
Results to be included in final technical report and in relevant communications
CSIRO will develop the Climate Futures Tool for Vietnam
For 7 regions across Vietnam
Incorporate CMIP5 global model data and downscaled data
Communicate range of future projections

19. OBS
CCAM
Linda
Keith
Tropical depression < 34 knots

20. Climate Futures tool: Managing Risk 20/08/12
This mouse has done some risk management:
It has assessed the risk of being killed and decided to reduce the risk by wearing a helmet
Has it made a good choice?? 20

21. Typical Climate Projections
20/08/12
Typical Climate Projections
Radiation: (-1.2 to +1.8) %
Rainfall change: (-15 to +10) %
-5 %
+5%
Radiation
The typical climate projection information that you would find in a scientific report is presented for individual climate variables such as temperature or rainfall, for a particular time period and emission scenario. Often you are given the average change across all the climate models used, with a range presented beside it.
This is OK for awareness-raising, but it is not suitable for risk assessments involving multiple climate variables, e.g. an agricultural risk assessment driven by changes in temperature, rainfall, sunshine, evaporation and humidity, because some combinations of variables may not be simulated by climate models. In this example, drier futures are associated with increase in radiation (less rain, less clouds) and increase in rainfall associated with less radiation (more rain more clouds!)
A decrease in radiation and rainfall would have serious implications for agriculture such as increasing the time crops take to mature. You may be tempted to use these numbers in an impact assessment but in reality this relationship may not exist due to the physics of the climate system.
-20 %
+20 %
Rainfall

22. This is an example for Timor Leste, showing projections information for
2090 under the medium (or A1B) emissions scenario
The page also provides simple plots showing how each of the key climate futures change over time:
Showing mean change values for:
Temperature,
And rainfall,
For 2030, 2055 and 2090
Under the selected emissions scenario
Notice how the difference between the most likely and extreme climate futures increases over time
The web-tool will be continually improved over time in response to feedback from users as well as our own plans for implementing additional features
Climate Futures Tool

23. Component 4: Regional sea-level projection
CSIRO will develop regional sea-level projections for Vietnam
Sea-level rise will not be uniform due to changes in ocean circulation, gravitational effects, glaciers, etc.

24. Sea-level rise will not be uniform
Updated regional projections
Glacier and ice cap Fingerprint
Antarctic Fingerprint
Greenland Fingerprint
Gomez et al. 2011

25. Building capacity & designing assessment needs
Component 5:
Building capacity & designing assessment needs
5.1 Training of IMHEN staff and other relevant agencies
Seminar 1: Why integrated assessment and what methods are available?
Seminar 2: Training in Agent-based modelling
Seminar 3: Hands-on tasks for model design & model analysis
Seminar 4: In-depth training of model design and model use
5.2 Participatory design
What are the assessment needs of Vietnam’s coastal communities?
Decision on methodology: Agent-based simulation & flood plan model
Development of systems diagram
5.3 Data preparation
Collate necessary data: GIS, soil, hydrology, households, economics…
This slide takes them through the other steps of our component 5.

26. Downscaled projection a key input for assessing adaptation options
climate
projection
Methods & skills
Identify & assess
adaptation options
Sea-level rise
projection
Other hydrological
data
In this slide I try to explain that the component for downscaling climate projections will produce data that is required for the assessment process. Also required are many other data sets. Also required are the actual tools and the skills to develop and use them for the assessment. Our component is about designing the tool and developing the skills to develop and use integrated assessment tools.
Economic
data
GIS
data
Social household
data

27. Building capacity & designing assessment needs
…the impact of…
Changes in sea-level, rainfall, temperature, extreme events
Weather monitoring /early warning
Dykes/sluice gates, water treatment and urban drainage,
Resettlements,
Crop &land use changes, deforestation
Road upgrades
Building code changes
International water sharing & dam operation agreements
Awareness raising & new crop research
…on…
Vulnerability, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, Risk
Agricultural Production
Hydrology
Household Economics, wellbeing and poverty
Population growth
Food security. Nutrition
Biodiversity, Environment, endangered species
Gender equality
Migration
Public health, diseases,
Livelihoods (incl. job changes)
Freshwater access and salinity intrusion
Here the key slide as these are the first results: One the left hand side what workshop participants told us is required, or what an assessment tool should be able to assess. And on the right hand side what such a tool should report on. So the impacts of (left hand side) on (right hand side). Tell them that we held the workshop in Han Noi and HCMC and maybe who was invited.

28. Component 6: Communication and management
Activity 6.1: Dissemination of downscaled data (IMHEN, CSIRO)
Data, images, documentation, reports and brochures downloadable from the website
Web-based delivery system of data
Activity 6.2: Workshops
July 2012 in Hanoi, Dec 2012 Melbourne and May/June 2013 – Launch in Vietnam
Activity 6.3: PhD Training
IMHEN and HUS have each sent two students to Melbourne for two months for training

29. Component 6: Communication and management
Activity 6.4: Training on downscaling and analyses
As part of workshops
Activity 6.5: Final report
With nation-wide and regional summaries
Activity 6.6: Scientific publications in international journals
Publication and communication plan will be developed to coordinate outputs by the research team

30. Component 6: Communication and management
Active engagement with Vietnam government representatives
Explain project to stakeholders to maximise application of the projections in local adaptation planning and action
Develop and maintain effective links with contributing researchers, including international and regional agencies
Ensure sound collaboration between researchers participating in the project
Monitoring and evaluation plan

31. Component 6: Communication and management
Headline Statement:
The Regional Projections will help Vietnam better understand the likely change of climate throughout the country.
Improving the knowledge of climate change will help identify the people and sectors at risk and, in doing so, will support Vietnam in the challenging task of prioritizing its climate change response.
Funded by the Australian Government’s aid program, AusAID, the project is delivered by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in collaboration with Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment and Hanoi University of Science.

32. Thank you CSIRO Jack Katzfey Project Leader Phone: +61 3 9239 4562
Web:
Thank you
Phone: or Web:
Climate Adaptation Flagship