1. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Topics: 1.Early warning in the context of risk management. 2.Current status of Early Warning in Latin America and the Caribbean. 3.Trends in Early Warning, EWCII and Mitch + 5 Initiatives. 4.Challenges in Early Warning. 5.Conclusions.

2. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Basic thoughts concerning risk: Contrast the 2001 Washington state earthquake versus de 1976 Guatemalan or the 1972 Nicaragua or the 1985 Mexican earthquakes. Contrast Mt St. Helens eruption and the eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia and the Armero catastrophe. If we conceive risk as a process, then the result of this process is what we call a disaster. Disasters seem to attack the poorest. Developed nations have resources which have been employed to promote measures which inhibit the generation of risks (for example: enforcement of building codes and zoning laws). Casita Volcano Landslide, 1998, courtesy INETER

3. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Two views concerning risk: as an entity and as a process. CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION OF RISK:

4. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Conceptual framework concerning risk management. Early Warning Systems (EWS) are examples of measures related to preparedness, and complement other measures such a the implementation of emergency committees, emergency planning, posting evacuation routes, simulations, and exercises.

5. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Conceptual framework concerning Early Warning. Early Warning Systems (EWS) operate on a very simple operational framework. Precursors to events are monitored on a continuous basis. Data is analyzed to generate a forecast. If there is a forecast of a large event, a warning is issued. In the modern framework of EW the emergency committees will begin actions as proposed in the emergency plans. Forecasting: Will there be an event? Monitoring of precursors to natural events. Initiate actions according to emergency plans YES NO Issue a Warning or an Alert.

6. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Early Warning as a strategy for the transition from Disaster Response to Risk Management. Before Mitch, Central America had typically national-level institutions devoted to disaster response, called National Emergency Councils. National Emergency Councils Early Warning In several cases, Mitch became a catalyst to transform these from military to non-military institutions, and the concept of risk management was embedded in their new mandates (prevention, mitigation & preparedness, as well as response). National Institutions for Disaster Reduction

7. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Community-operated Early Warning Systems (C-EWS) in Central America are based on three pillars. Civil Society plays a role in monitoring phenomena (rainfall, river level) and reporting to a central station. Using standard procedures, the central station can issue a forecast. National level institutions devoted to disaster preparedness provide instrumentation, training and technical sustainability to the system. Tech. institutions provide tools and methods to operate the EWS. Early Warning System Institutions Instrumentation Civil Society C EWSs

8. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Current status of Early Warning Systems in Latin America & Caribbean All countries in the Caribbean and Central America operate national-level EWS for hurricanes, based on information provided by US institutions such as NOAA and NHC; WMO, and national weather stations. Several countries operate sophisticated EWS for floods using telemetric equipment. Several countries operate basic EWS for floods using simple rain-gauges and river level gauges.

9. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Current status of Early Warning Systems in Latin America & Caribbean Mexico city operates an EWS for earthquakes. North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) and Brazil operate EWS for forest fires using satellites. Some countries operate some kind of EWS for tsunamis. This effort is led by US (Hawaii) and Chile. Several countries are developing EWS for volcanic eruptions. There are attempts to develop EWS for landslides based on intensity of rainfall and geological studies.

10. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Current status of Early Warning Systems in Latin America & Caribbean US-AID sponsored and provided technical assistance to implement telemetric early warning systems for several rivers in Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala. ECHO, GTZ, SIDA and other government organizations sponsored the implementation of community-operated early warning systems throughout Central America, in South America, and the Caribbean. Colombia, Venezuela, and other South American nations operate telemetric EWS for floods. Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Montserrat, and Nicaragua head efforts in EWSs for volcanoes. Cuba, Jamaica, Ned. Antilles, Panama, Dom. Rep, Mexico, and several South American countries operate weather radars as part of their EWSs for floods. Regional centers such as CRRH, CIIFEN, and CATHALAC, stimulate applied research which benefits EW. CEPREDENAC, CDERA, and CAPRADE are regional institutions promoting EW as part of disaster prevention.

11. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Current status of Early Warning Systems in Latin America & Caribbean Disasters such as Hurricane Mitch in Central America and Georges in the Caribbean are opening avenues of communication and understanding among scientific /technical and social institutions. International projects such as AID-CAMI and GTZ-FEMID have made significant contributions to this effort of uniting institutions with a common goal of disaster reduction via early warning and risk management projects. Early warning systems have been implemented throughout the region, and are now evolving as tools of national and local emergency committees and Centers for Emergency Operations (EOCs) for disaster preparedness. Early warning has provided a window of opportunity to share a variety of experiences regarding risk management and disaster preparedness.

12. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Trends in Early Warning; EWCII & Mitch+5 There have been regional and international events to discuss early warning trends. EWC II in Bonn, Germany, October 2003. RCEW in Guatemala, June 2003. www.ewc2.org Mitch + 5, Honduras, December 2003. www.cepredenac.org Regional Symposium on EW, Guatemala, Nov 2001. Regional forums in the Caribbean and Central America.

13. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Trends in Early Warning Systems in Latin America & Caribbean Typical conclusions from such forums. EW is becoming a tool to integrate scientific/technical institutions with Disaster Preparedness institutions. EW is becoming a tool also to integrate local citizens as volunteers, as well as local organizations to promote disaster preparedness. EW projects are focusing on the whole picture of disaster preparedness and risk management via the inclusion of many actors and the elaboration of risk maps and emergency plans. EW is offering the expected results regarding saving lives and property in some cases. EW has been supported greatly via international support (technical/scientific institutions, Intnl Org. Such as OAS, AID, SIDA, UNDP, ECHO; as well as by NGOs and national institutions.) In some countries, EW has become an activity of National Emergency Committees.

14. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Trends in Early Warning Systems in Latin America & Caribbean Typical recommendations from such forums. There is a need to strengthen EWS capacities at the national and local levels. Developed nations should continue to support research to understand the dynamics of natural phenomena as part of their technical assistance to developing nations. Developed nations should continue to share information regarding the status of natural phenomena. EW must be tied to the new Risk Management framework, and given its proper place in it. EW must be supported from all levels (international, regional, national, and local). There is a need to design and implement regional programs which target EW to promote its applications and development. There is a need to promote exchanges of ideas, experiences, lessons learned, and those things we should not repeat (mistakes), in order to improve EWSs.

15. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Trends in Early Warning Systems in Latin America & Caribbean Lessons Learned from various experiences on EW: EW is gradually encompassing the onset of emergency operations. Its being re-defined to go beyond the warning itself. Sustainability has to be built- in order for systems to operate successfully. For example, in rural areas the human-operated radio networks are finding uses to solve social problems (medical assistance, coordination of activities, etc.) Recent disasters such as hurricanes Mitch and Georges have provided an opportunity to advance dramatically in EW concepts and applications. Hi-tech EWS allow for high precision, but in Central America & Caribbean, cost is still an issue. Low tech EWS have been successful in involving community members and local governments in rural communities, specially in the case of small river basins. However, tools and instruments have to be adapted to their limitations.

16. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Challenges in Early Warning Systems Modeling drought and its impacts in the region. Improvements to basic EWSs in areas such as hydrologic modeling to: Create forecast algorithms. Create high-resolution hazard maps. Introduce the concept of period of return associated to the intensity of events to generate risk scenarios. Systematize successful and unsuccessful experiences and distribute them. Sustainability of High-Tech systems in developing nations. The cost of high precision. How can we afford it in developing nations? Scientific research to understand the dynamics of such regional phenomena as Climate Change and El Niño. Scientific research to understand the dynamics of landslides triggered by rainfall. Introduce Benchmarking and indicators to catalog EWSs.

17. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Challenges in Early Warning Systems Challenges lying ahead in meteorological applications: El Niño: Understanding its impacts in the various regions of the world. Understanding and modeling its effects in other sectors such as agriculture, cattle farming, energy, and urban growth. Climate Change: Understanding its impacts in the various regions of the world. Evaluating and interpreting local variations in climate (delay in the onset of rainfall, extension of periods without rainfall). Understanding the role of regional deforestation in local climate changes. Understanding and modeling its effects in other sectors such as agriculture, cattle farming, energy, and urban growth. Drought; Understanding its impacts in the various regions of the world. Understanding and modeling its effects in other sectors.

18. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Challenges in Early Warning Systems The how to do it, some thoughts… REGIONAL PLATFORMS ON EARLY WARNING: Gather and systematize experiences from around the world to generate, print, and distribute documentation in various languages. Serve as a means to link those who are facing problems with those who have already solved them. Promote a forum for discussion and sharing of experiences in EW. Elaborate and distribute guidelines, manuals, and blueprints to implement or upgrade EWSs. REGIONAL PROJECTS: Promote and carry out regional projects which focus on critical issues such as climate change or landslides, where scientists from various countries develop, systematize, and implement techniques to monitor precursors, analyze data, and elaborate algorithms and procedures to establish and operate early warning systems.

19. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination CONCLUSIONS: Early Warning is healthy and alive, But disasters continue to disrupt development in poorer countries. We must find how best to integrate resources to promote a better understanding of natural phenomena which are affecting us. We need to take advantage of the new information technology to enhance the exchange of experiences and to disseminate knowledge gathered via research. We need to find mechanisms to tie risk management, including EW into the political arena and as part of the sustainable development. Thanks for your attention.