1. 17/12/2013 Renewable energy and sustainable energy balances Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok @kornelisblok

2. © ECOFYS | | The growth of renewable energy …. > What may renewable energy contribute in 2030? > How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems? > How to incentivize renewable energy? 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok2

3. © ECOFYS | | What may renewable energy contribute in 2030? 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok3

4. © ECOFYS | | Renewable energy: 40% in 2030 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok4 Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU

5. © ECOFYS | | Renewable energy by sector 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok5 Buildings Manufacturing industry Transport Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU

6. © ECOFYS | | Investments and return-on-investment (energy efficiency + renewable energy) 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok6 Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU

7. © ECOFYS | | How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems? 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok7

8. © ECOFYS | | Germany, business-as-used-to-be 11/12/20138Kees van der Leun

9. © ECOFYS | | Germany, the new world (June 2013!) 11/12/20139Kees van der Leun

10. © ECOFYS | | Germany, prices-as-used-to-be 11/12/201310Kees van der Leun

11. © ECOFYS | | Germany, prices in the new world (June 2013!) 11/12/201311Kees van der Leun

12. © ECOFYS | | Flexibility options for power systems System Energy Storage Supply Net- work Demand 17/08/201512

13. © ECOFYS | | The impact of grid constraints 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok13

14. © ECOFYS | | Grid constraints and total system costs 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok14

15. © ECOFYS | | How to incentivize renewable energy? 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok15

16. © ECOFYS | | 17/08/2015Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse Still diversity of support schemes in Europe but with some converging trends Source: Ecofys based on Ragwitz et al. (2012). RE- Shaping Ecofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels sustainability.

17. © ECOFYS | | 17/08/2015Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse The MS are currently on track with their 2011/2012 trajectory but projections do not look good for 2020 Source: Ecofys based on Ecofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels sustainability.

18. © ECOFYS | | Lessons from MS experience tell us how to design effective and efficient RES-E support schemes 17/08/2015Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse Provide reliable framework: frequent and unexpected policy changes undermine investor confidence Policy changes transparent and predictable (e.g. automatic degression, clear formula for quota setting, pre-set revision agenda) No retroactive changes Long term political commitment Guarantee support level for long term Consultation with stakeholders Lessons learntBest practice design criteria Reflect and limit investment risks: risk-conscious (triple-A) policies increase growth and reduce support costs by up to 50% Tailor support scheme to RE market deployment status and electricity market readiness No abrupt or retroactive policy changes Avoid rigid budget or capacity caps Simple, transparent permitting process Priority grid access and dispatch Quota: long term horizon and serious penalties Government facilitates access to capital (e.g. participation, financial guarantees, loans) Adjust level of support to technology and market conditions Apply technology specific support levels Calculate level of support based on LCOE, so support neither too low nor too high Planned and transparent adjustments based on technology and market changes

19. © ECOFYS | | Thank you! Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok Director of Science Ecofys Kanaalweg 15-G 3526 KL Utrecht Phone: 030-6623399 E-mail: k.blok@ecofys.comk.blok@ecofys.com Twitter: @kornelisblok www.ecofys.com 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok19

20. © ECOFYS | | sustainable energy for everyone 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok20

21. © ECOFYS | | Back-up slides 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok21

22. © ECOFYS | | Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok22 IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation

23. © ECOFYS | | 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok23 IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation

24. © ECOFYS | | CO 2 emissions from fossil and renewable sources 11/12/2013Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok24 Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU