1. © 2004 by David T. Olson The Map of the American Church

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson2 This is a sample presentation of “The State of the American Church.” It contains 39 selected slides of the 132 found in the complete presentation. For a limited time, the complete Powerpoint costs $9.95 - 50% off the regular price. It is available for immediate download by following this link: www.theamericanchurch.org/snord.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson3 The purpose of this Powerpoint Presentation is to provide the most up-to-date information about the present state of the American Church. Reliable statistics regarding what is happening in the American Church are hard to find! In recent years, membership numbers have ceased to provide an accurate picture of the true state of the church. Increasingly, researchers are looking at weekend worship attendance figures as the best single indicator of yearly growth, decline and health in churches (see slide 130 for additional comments). This research study uses 10 years of consecutive worship attendance data collected from over 200,000 individual churches in 20 denominations, combined with additional denomination research to provide accurate estimates of the attendance at the other 100,000 Christian churches in the United States. This presentation will provide a clear picture of the present state of the church, and will address the reasons why the American Church is not keeping up with population growth.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson4 “If you want to know whether a man is religious, don’t ask him, observe him.” - Ludwig Wittgenstein A good place to begin is to find out what percentage of people attend church on a given weekend. The two preeminent pollsters on religion in American life are George Barna and George Gallup. Their polling results of church attendance have been nearly identical. According to Barna, 43% of American adults attended church in a typical weekend in 2002. According to Gallup, 43% of American adults attended church in a typical weekend in 2000. Both are based on a very specific question, “Have you attended a church or a house of worship in the last 7 days?” Because their polling results are identical, it seems likely that each poll represents the actual response to the question. But are people telling the truth about their behavior?

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson5 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People present themselves as having engaged in activities that make themselves look better to their peer group than they really are. Americans over-report socially desirable behavior and under- report socially undesirable behavior. Does the Halo Effect cause people to overestimate their church attendance when polled? Yes! The actual rate of attendance from ‘head counts’ is less than half of what the pollsters report. Numbers from actual counts of people in orthodox Christian churches show that 20.4% of the population attended church on any given weekend in 1990. That percentage dropped to 18.7% by 2000. * This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches (these are churches that are widely considered to have traditional Christian theology.) Approximately 3 million people a weekend attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 2 million attend a religious service of another religion. This would add another 35,000 ‘houses of worship’ to the 300,000 Christian churches and would increase the 2000 percentage of attendance to 20.5%.

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7. 7 A little simple math can confirm the accuracy of these percentages. The average attendance of a church in the United States is 127 (the median is 72). There are about 275,000 Protestant churches in America. That means about 35 million people attend a Protestant church on a weekend. There are 21,000 Catholic parishes, with an average attendance of 800 per parish on a weekend. That’s an additional 17 million attending mass. (The other major group, Eastern Orthodox churches, represent less than 1% of church attendance in America, so is used in this simple math calculation.) Those 52 million attenders equal 18 1/2 percent of the 2000 American population of 282 million. If the percentage of Americans that attend church is surprisingly low, an even more troubling aspect is the decline in the percent of people attending a Christian church from 1990 – 2000. Why is the percentage declining? There is both good news and bad news here. The good news is that the actual number of people who attend church on any given weekend increased during the last decade by 3%, from 51 million to 52 million. The next slide reports those numbers. Numerically, Evangelical churches grew by 10%, while Mainline ones declined by 2% and Catholic parishes declined by 3%.

8. © 2004 by David T. Olson8

9. 9 The bad news is that population growth for the decade was 13%, so the numerically-growing church lost ground in terms of percentage. (The rest of this presentation primarily uses ‘percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend’ as the most accurate and helpful statistic for evaluating whether the Christian church is growing or declining.) The next slide shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any give weekend in every state in 2000. Dark yellow states have the highest percentage of attendance, while white states have the lowest rate of attendance. The map graphically shows that the Southern and Midwest regions have the highest percentage of people in a Christian church on any given weekend, while the Northeast and West lag behind. And the winner for the state with the highest percentage in church on a weekend is...

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11. © 2004 by David T. Olson11 The complete Presentation contains 7 additional slides with 5 national maps showing growth or decline of Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches by state. The following slide is an example.

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson12

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson13 The complete Presentation contains 17 additional slides with 10 national maps showing concentrations of Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches, and the county by county growth or decline of each. The following slide is an example.

15. © 2004 by David T. Olson15 Why is the percentage of people attending church declining in the United States? This is a critical question to be answered. What can churches do to reverse this trend? The rest of this presentation is devoted to providing an accurate and fascinating picture of American Christianity in all of its diversity. There we will find a complex picture of regional differences, age vitality issues, changing growth patterns, theological variations and vastly different church planting results. Eventually, the picture will become clear enough to help us make an honest evaluation of why this is happening, and offer solutions to move the American Church toward greater health and vitality.

16. © 2004 by David T. Olson16 What happens if the present pattern continues for another 10 years, or 20 years or 50 years? The following chart shows the actual 1990 and 2000 percentages, followed by estimates for 2010, 2020 and 2050. This was done by using each denomination’s growth or decline rate from 1990 – 2000 and assuming the same rate of change for the next 10, 20 and 50 years.

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18. © 2004 by David T. Olson18 All 3 groups face significant challenges. The future is not promising! Is there any hope at all? Yes! To understand the hope, it is necessary to look at other dimensions of church life in America. This is best done by answering 12 questions that will fill out the profile of the American Church.

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson19 1. Is the American church-going population primarily urban, small town or rural? The following 4 slides show the composition for Evangelical, Mainline, Catholic and all Christian churches. Counties are divided into 5 groups – large metropolitan counties (with more than 250,000 in the metropolitan area), small metropolitan counties (with less than 250,000 in the metropolitan area), city counties (with a city of more than 20,000), town counties (with a town of 2,500 – 20,000), and rural counties (with no town over 2,500). Notice how the evangelical and mainline profile is the exact opposite of the Catholic profile.

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson20 The complete Presentation contains 9 additional slides with 7 charts showing Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic church attendance by the 5 categories. The following slide is an example.

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22. © 2004 by David T. Olson22 2. How is the church doing in urban and suburban areas of metropolitan counties? The next chart looks only at metropolitan counties, and divides them into predominantly urban or suburban counties. Evangelical churches are the only grouping that is doing well in metropolitan areas. Evangelical and Catholic churches are doing significantly better in suburban counties than urban counties. Mainline churches are doing substantially worse in suburban counties. Once again, Evangelical churches are doing very well in the well- to-do suburban areas. (Many counties encompass both urban and suburban areas. For this study, if a county contained a major urban area, it was considered urban, even if it also contained suburbs.)

23. © 2004 by David T. Olson23 The complete Presentation contains 4 additional slides. The following slide is an example.

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25. © 2004 by David T. Olson25 3. Is there a correlation between American church attendance and income? The next 2 charts shows the percentage of attendance on any given weekend for the 5 income categories based on each county’s 1990 average household income. The first slide shows the correlation between the household income of the county and the percent of the population that attends a Christian Church on any weekend. The higher the income, the lower the percentage of attendance. The second and third slides show how the evangelical graph and the Catholic graph are reversed – Evangelicals are stronger in poorer counties and Catholics are stronger in richer counties. (There is a strong correlation between the population of a county and its household income – in urban and suburban counties salaries are higher, but it also costs more to live.)

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson26 The complete Presentation contains 5 additional slides. The following slide is an example.

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28. © 2004 by David T. Olson28 4. How are different sized churches doing in America? The following research is from a study of 120,000 Protestant Churches, one half evangelical and one half mainline. It is based on churches that were started before 1990 (so it is possible to get a ten year growth rate (referred to as the Decadal Growth Rate)). The next slide shows how churches grew, divided into categories by their attendance size in 1990. The smallest churches and the large churches did the best. Churches in the middle (an attendance of 50 – 399) are being squeezed. Note that even the fastest growing column (churches from 1000 – 1999) is far below population growth for the decade (13.2%). Denominational megachurches are just barely growing. (This is contrary to conventional wisdom. What is usually forgotten is that almost all megachurches are new churches, started within the last 25 years, and are experiencing early lifecycle growth. Older megachurches experience the same lifecycle decline as other churches as they age – look for a lot of the boomer megachurches to begin to decline in the next 10 to 15 years.)

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson29 The complete Presentation contains 5 additional slides. The following slide is an example.

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31. © 2004 by David T. Olson31 5. What are typical sizes for churches in America? For Protestant churches, the average worship attendance is 127, and the median is 72. For Catholic churches, the average attendance at mass is 800. The next slide shows the percentage of total attendance by the size of the churches. Mainline churches have more small churches (pink sectors), while evangelical churches are comprised of more large churches (yellow sectors). (For example, 27.4% of mainline attendance is in churches with attendances from 1 – 99, while the evangelical figure is 19.7% - shown in the pink slices. On the other hand, 12.4% of evangelical attendance is in churches with attendance over 1000, while the mainline figure is 6.2% - shown in the yellow slices.) The second slide shows the average and median size for 12 denominations. Average and median sizes vary greatly by denomination. (Average is the attendance of the group divided by the number in the group; median is the size of the middle church if they were all lined up by size.) *Explanation of denominational abbreviations is at the end of the presentation.

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson32 The complete Presentation contains 2 additional slides. The following slide is an example.

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34. © 2004 by David T. Olson34 6. How are different denominational families doing? The next two slides divide worship attendance into nine denominational families. The height of each column shows the relative size of weekend attendance in each group. The blue column is 1990 size, while the maroon column is 2000 size. Some groups are self-explanatory. Others need some explanation. The Holiness family consists of non-pentecostal churches that came out of the pentecostal-holiness revivals of the first decade of the last century. Reformed includes reformed and presbyterian churches. Three Sisters are three historically Swedish ‘sister’ denominations (the Evangelical Free Church, the Evangelical Covenant Church and the Baptist General Conference.) Christian churches are the Churches of Christ and Christian Churches of the Restorationist movement.

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson35 The complete Presentation contains 2 additional slides. The following slide is an example.

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37. © 2004 by David T. Olson37 7. Are established churches growing or declining? Most people do not know the truth of this. The next slide is from a study of 70,000 established churches (over 10 years old). It grouped churches by the decade in which they were started. The startling result was that every decade of churches that were started from 1840 to 1960 have declined in numbers! (This uses only attendance numbers, and does not even consider the effect of population growth.)

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson38 The complete Presentation contains 3 additional slides. The following slide is an example.

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40. © 2004 by David T. Olson40 Questions 8 – 11 are discussed in a total of 31 slides: 8. How many churches in America close each year and how many new churches begin each year? 9. How ethnically diverse are denominations in the United States? 10. What is the age and gender profile of churches? 11. How are new churches doing?

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson41 12. When existing church growth and new church growth are combined, how is the American church doing compared to population growth? The growth or decline of the American church is based exclusively on these two factors. It is as simple as that. If the growth of its new churches do not more than neutralize the decline of its established churches, then that denomination will decline numerically. If the growth of its established churches plus the growth of its new churches do not together exceed the population growth, then that denomination will decline in percentage of the population attending a weekend service.

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson42 The combined effect of established churches plus new churches can be shown in looking at following graph that illustrates what is happening throughout the whole country from 1990 – 2000 using raw attendance numbers. Mainline established churches declined by 4.0%. Mainline church plants added growth to the total of 1.5%. Therefore, mainline groups declined by a total of 2.5% during the decade. Population growth was 13.2%. Evangelical established churches grew by 3.1%. Evangelical church plants added another 6.0%. Therefore, evangelical groups grew by a total of 9.1% during the decade. Population growth was 13.2%.

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44. © 2004 by David T. Olson44 When evangelical churches and mainline churches are combined, the next slide shows that Protestant churches grew by less than half of what was needed to keep up with population growth. (A total growth of 5.7% compared to population growth of 13.2%.)

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46. © 2004 by David T. Olson46 Is it even possible for the American Church to keep up with population growth? The next two slides show two possible scenarios that statistically would keep the American church growing at a rate equal to population growth. Both involve the potential of established churches doing better and church planting increasing.

47. © 2004 by David T. Olson47 The presentation makes conclusions and potential solutions to the decline of the American Church in the final 7 slides.

48. © 2004 by David T. Olson48 This has been a sample presentation of “The State of the American Church.” It contained 39 selected slides of the 132 found in the complete presentation. For a limited time, the complete Powerpoint costs $9.95 - 50% off the regular price. It is available for immediate download by following this link: www.theamericanchurch.org/snord.htm

49. © 2004 by David T. Olson49 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.

50. © 2004 by David T. Olson50 VCF=Vineyard Christian FellowshipEC=Episcopal Church ECC=Evangelical Covenant ChurchCOTN=Church of the Nazarene IPHC=International Pentecostal Holiness Church FM=Free Methodist BGC=Baptist General ConferenceUMC=United Methodist Church NAB=North American BaptistLCMS=Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod PCA=Presbyterian Church of AmericaELCA=Evangelical Lutheran Church of America WC=Wesleyan ChurchPCUSA=Presbyterian Church - USA SBC=Southern Baptist ConventionCOTB=Church of the Brethren EFCA=Evangelical Free Church of America CRC=Christian Reformed Church AG=Assemblies of GodDC=Disciples of Christ

51. © 2004 by David T. Olson51 This presentation is based on a nationwide study of American Christian church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches throughout the country. It also uses supplementary information (such as actual membership numbers extrapolated with membership to attendance ratios) to accurately project the attendances of other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 Christian churches. Division into Evangelical and Mainline Protestant is taken from the Glenmary decadal study of church membership. A list of evangelical denominations can be found at http://www.thearda.com/RCMS/2000/Denoms/evangelical.html; http://www.thearda.com/RCMS/2000/Denoms/evangelical.html A list of mainline denominations are at http://www.thearda.com/RCMS/2000/Denoms/mainline.html. http://www.thearda.com/RCMS/2000/Denoms/mainline.html This study does not include non-orthodox Christian groups or non-Christian religions in America. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States.

52. © 2004 by David T. Olson52 For More Information... Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. Dave Olson is the Director of The American Church Research Project as well as the Director of Church Planting for the Evangelical Covenant Church. He has been collecting research information on American Churches for the last 17 years. For more information, please go to www.theamericanchurch.org or contact Dave at DaveTOlson@aol.com.www.theamericanchurch.org DaveTOlson@aol.com