1. U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2006 Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 32nd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 22-26, 2007 Morristown, TN, Sep. 12, 2007

2. Georgia gets tough on water use!

3. Outline Current Drought and 12-month EvolutionCurrent Drought and 12-month Evolution Drought in Historical PerspectiveDrought in Historical Perspective Selected Drought ImpactsSelected Drought Impacts Current Drought OutlookCurrent Drought Outlook Recent Changes to the OutlookRecent Changes to the Outlook Some ideas for future OutlooksSome ideas for future Outlooks

4. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor

5. Year-to-Date Drought Change: Wetness Plains Book-ended by Droughts West and East

6. October vs April Drought

7. Winter Percent of Normal Precipitation Downtown Los Angeles had driest “rain season” since at least 1877: 3.21 in., 21% of normal.

8. Western Snowpack 2007 vs 2006

9. Streamflow Forecasts 2007 vs 2006

10. Spring-Summer Changes

11. Fires Spread Dramatically Across the West in July

12. Mid-Atlantic Drought Worsens Sep-Oct 5 Maryland wells at Record lows mid-October Charles County well sets record Record 34 days without measurable rain at DCA thru October 18, 2007

13. Southeast Virginia: Little Creek Reservoir near Newport News October 15, 2007 Photo by Don Aspinall

14. Historical Drought in Alabama http:// lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/sep/Reg001Dv00_palm06_01000907_pg.gif One of 2 worst droughts past 50 years

15. Georgia Drought

16. Lake Lanier October, 2007 90-day supply left for Atlanta?

17. Tennessee Drought Worst in over 50 yrs.

18. Cherokee Lake in E. Tennessee Sep 12, 2007 Photo by Brian Boyd

19. North Carolina Drought 2 nd worst in over 50 years Driest May-Sep

20. Kentucky Drought 2 nd worst in over 50 yrs

21. Rankings http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/sep/national.html

22. Lake Okeechobee Drops to New Lows Levels remain ~ 5 feet lower than normal in October 2007

23. Selected Drought Impacts to Crops in the Southeast Corn Yield vs 2006Corn Yield vs 2006 Virginia -33%Virginia -33% Maryland -40%Maryland -40% North Carolina -33%North Carolina -33% Tennessee -15%Tennessee -15% Kentucky -15%Kentucky -15% Alabama +1%Alabama +1% Georgia +5%Georgia +5% Peanut Yields vs 2006Peanut Yields vs 2006 Virginia -37%Virginia -37% North Carolina -25%North Carolina -25% Georgia +6%Georgia +6%

24. The Seasonal Drought Outlooks

25. Last Night’s 5-Day QPF

26. One Week Soil Moisture Forecast

27. Recent Changes Began twice/month schedule (1 st and 3 rd Thursday)Began twice/month schedule (1 st and 3 rd Thursday) Expanding CPC authorsExpanding CPC authors Changed wording of headings (“Tendency”, valid dates)Changed wording of headings (“Tendency”, valid dates)

28. Drought Verification Jul-Sep 2007

29. Improvement over Persistence Percent of Grid Points Correct vs a Forecast Based on Persisting Droughts Long-term mean = 13%

30. Two Path Approach to Improving Drought Forecasts at CPC Continue to produce and refine seasonal drought outlooks for the general publicContinue to produce and refine seasonal drought outlooks for the general public a. Consider adding monthly forecasts b. Consider adding probability information to map Develop objective seasonal probability forecasts for drought (guidance useful for an array of users)Develop objective seasonal probability forecasts for drought (guidance useful for an array of users) a. Drought probabilities (soil moisture, runoff, drought indices) at some point in the future b. Probabilities for change c. Consider NIDIS goals d. Climate Test Bed products to contribute

31. One Prototype Suggestion of a Probabilistic Forecast

32. University of Washington Forecasts http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtml

33. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)