1. SAMI Consulting St Andrews Management Institute www.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain times Scenarios for higher education in the 21 st century Gill Ringland October 2009

2. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Agenda What questions might we ask? Scenarios & Forecasts Case study – Scenarios for Scotland Case Study – Forecasts and scenarios What scope for scenarios? What timescale? Case study – scenarios for higher education in Estonia Case study – using scenarios to think about future skills What happens next? Case study – developing and using scenarios in a University Questions revisited

3. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Formed in 1989 Until 1999 based at St Andrews University Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows Strategic support for senior managers Forecasts, scenarios, options, choices, planning, targets, metrics, change management Resources: 7 Fellows, all with Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, teach & write on business, strategy and futures 6 Principals, experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and change management, 10 Consultants and 30 Associates with specialist expertise Library of data, sources of information, networks of people, shared virtual space, wide knowledge of methods and tools SAMI Consulting

4. robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk What questions might we ask? How do we define Higher Education? What is the purpose of HE? What economic and societal changes will shape HE? What influence can HE have on the economy and society? What aspects? When (what life stage) can/should people undertake HE? How can HE be delivered?

5. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Forecasts Scenarios Hope! Uncertainty Predetermined Distance into the futures Forecasts and Scenarios

6. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Forecasting is good for Technology Products for next 10 years in lab now Products for next 20 years discussed now But – adoption - surprises Demographics Reducing population in developed world World population may peak at 8.8 billion But – migration – surprises Next five years in most sectors But – scenarios in marketing – use for recognising new customer behaviour for new products within a year Forecasts use the current mental model St Andrews Management Institute (SAMI)

7. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk What are scenarios useful for? Scenarios are “ an internally consistent view of what the future might be ” “ not a forecast but one possible future outcome ” Professor Michael Porter, Harvard University Scenarios deal with uncertainty and change Frame mental models to anticipate change Create a space for dialogue and exploring options Expose default assumptions Early indicators allow for signals of change to be picked up

8. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Case Study – Forecasts and Scenarios Example comparing both scenarios and forecasts Scenarios for Scotland Set agenda for new devolved government Use scenarios for University in Scotland New Head (Principal) and Senior Management Team (SMT) Purpose: set new strategy Use global drivers of change with SMT Five years later Update strategic plan

9. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Scenarios for Scotland Purpose: set agenda for new devolved government – what sort of country should Scotland aspire to be? Timing as new Scottish Parliament set up 10 sponsors, from private sector & Government, managed by SAMI plus two Universities, 1,000 interviews, 50 + focus groups Launch on St Andrews Day 1999 High Road scenario, “can do” Low Road scenario, “government’s fault” Used by Scottish Enterprise, Scottish Executive & politicians to formulate policy and strategy

10. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Scenarios for Scotland SAMI Consulting 2006 2000 2005 2010 2015 Low Road -“government’s fault” – Business as Usual Economy and Quality of Life High Road scenario - “can do” possible upward triggers GraduateEntrepreneursNatural educationadvantages

11. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Using scenarios New University Head (Principal) and new Senior Management Team Needed to create a common language and strategic plan Used the Scenarios for Scotland to frame a discussion What scenario for Scotland? Did the University need to share the Scotland scenario? Two day workshop discussion led to 37 actions and new Strategic Plan To change from technical college with mostly local, undergraduate engineering students Target: Use positives of Edinburgh brand to become global Use positives of Edinburgh Festival to connect with Arts Develop Master courses with global focus

12. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Local Global Possible futures for the University University Scotland Low Road High Road X ? ? ? Graduate education New courses, new students

13. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Five years later Phone call to SAMI We’ve done that, will you help us with a plan for the next five years? Did not use scenarios, the University had a mental model Used our five global drivers of change Globalisation Climate change Raw materials Technology People Within the SMT had experts on each but no effective communication Two day workshop discussion allowed them to calibrate what was achievable, desirable, set targets for next five years.

14. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Why scenarios work Ingvar, a neurobiologist, found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are asleep “memories of the future” Models of the world provide a context for these explorations “memories of the future” act as a filter to signals. Scenarios provide several alternative model future worlds for the brain to explore increases the range of “what we have experienced” and “what is relevant to our future” increases the ability of the brain to perceive.. Source: D. Ingvar, “Memory of the Future”, Human Neurobiology, 4 (3), p127-136, 1985

15. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Lessons learnt Scenarios are important for forming mental models Facilitate a discussion about options Explore assumptions Forecasts and knowledge of drivers may be what is needed for a strategic plan Though good plans include analysis of decision points where review of the data is needed to be sure that the world view is still correct Example – population in London

16. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk London projections 1991 forecast

17. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Scenario scope & timescale Change comes from outside the domain Japanese Foresight study Scope needs to be wide, eg for HE consider demographics, the economy, changing skill needs, technology ---- Timescale Longer than strategic planning horizon Relevant to the community

18. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk GE Oil & Gas Planning Horizon Changes from outside the horizon Planning Horizon Timescale New technologies Other industries Politics, economics Societal change Competitors Customers Regulators 3 5 10

19. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Japan Foresight Review Foresight started in Japan early 50’s Review of accuracy after 25 years Found that accuracy better if used a wide set of inputs, eg: Future of surface chemistry Consulted surface chemists plus other chemists, chemical engineers, physicists, biologists, economist, mathematicians Changes come from outside the domain of the current experts Where change comes from Source: B.R. Martin and J. Irvine, “Research Foresight: Priority-Setting in Science” (Pinter Publishers, London & New York, 1989).

20. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Scenarios for HE in Estonia What problem were we trying to solve? Demographic dip related to 1989-91, few Estonian students Facilities in place, plus ageing academic and support staff What could be done? Attract international students to Estonian Universities Using ICT to support distance learning based in Estonia Scenarios to explore options How are the scenarios being used? To outline possible solutions To develop a plan for EU funding

21. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Construction Skills The UK Sector Council for Construction Skills was faced with a problem: Training in the industry takes 3-5 years The Council is responsible for qualifications which are lagging today’s needs, Will the requirements be the same in say 10 years time? The workforce is ageing – how many people are needed to replace the retirees? Much of the workforce in construction has always been migrant – how stable is this?

22. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Using scenarios Interviews with all the major employers and Trade Unions Built a model to extend existing scenarios for the UK to 2020 Took into account changing technologies & productivity Also possible economic and social patterns & effect of climate change and raw materials Extend existing model used by the Sector Council Results tested in workshops around the country

23. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Interdependence Autonomy Four Scenarios IndividualCommunity Conventional development World marketsGlobal sustainability Local stewardship National enterprise Governance Values

24. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk What were the findings? In all scenarios there is continuing demand for construction workers But mix of skills will be different Need for multi-skilling & end of “silos” Climate change and resource efficiency demands will cause changes in the methods used, Potential increase in productivity eg from modularisation, need for multi-skilling Construction companies will need to pay more attention to recruitment and retention because of global war for talent and increased mobility of workers Results challenge the culture of the industry but are difficult to argue against

25. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Lessons learnt National scope for scenarios can be useful for engaging with decision makers Though global forces need to be considered Combining scenarios with existing well-respected models works Enables people who use the output from the model to understand the role of assumptions And to question their assumptions Timescale for scenarios may be beyond the planning horizons But effective scenarios will mean decisions in the short term

26. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk What happens next? Scenarios are useful mental models Basis for discussion Who decides? Do the decision makers need to be part of the scenario creation process? Evidence is that no, From University SMT and Construction Skills How to engage decision makers? Scenarios need to be plausible and provide approaches to recognised issues Project designers need to identify the decision making forum and process

27. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk “Typical” scenarios project Scenarios project in 2000 led by the new Vice Chancellor Team formed mostly from administrative staff Created four scenarios for Higher Education in 2010 Workshops across the University What are the implications of each scenario for the University? What scenario do we want to make happen? Strategy Group of about 80 people set up Senior academics and young high flyers, met three times at monthly intervals To take output from workshops and create a strategy Strategy outlined Senate needed to agree changes in strategy Senate has over 800 academic members Decision process still stalled SAMI Consulting 2006

28. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Lessons learnt Decision process Need to think through in advance Who makes decisions Why they should decide for change Scenarios are tools to think about uncertainty and change Like any project, need to know what is the aim what the steps are to getting there

29. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Scenarios for higher education Universities UK scenarios Common assumptions Main increase is in part time demand & part distance learning Tiering of institutions – top 100 globally, long tail Scenario 1: adapt slowly Scenario 2: market-driven, i.e. by students Scenario 3: employer-driven Useful background to our thinking today

30. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Questions revisited How do we define Higher Education? What is the purpose of HE? Will demand be driven by students or by employers? Or by national governments? Or the EU? What societal and economic changes will shape HE? What influence can HE have on the economy and society? When (what life stage) can/should students undertake HE? What proportion of people can/should undertake HE? What sort of organisations can/should deliver HE? How can HE be delivered? (technology, face-to-face. part time, full time)

31. SAMI Consulting St Andrews Management Institute www.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain times Thank you discussion, the floor is yours