1. ETHIOPIA SUSTAINABLE TOURISM DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (ESTDP) Impact Evaluation Plan Dakar, February 3, 2010

2. LALIBEL A ADDIS ABABA AXUM

3. ESTDP-Development Objective Enhance quality and variety of tourism products Increase the volume of tourism, Jobs Creation Increase Foreign Exchange Earnings Development Objective

4. Title of the Evaluation Evaluation of the Impact of Implementing a Matching Grant Scheme for the Enterprises in the Tourism Value Chain.

5. Contents of the Evaluation Plan 1. Intervention Description 2. Evaluation question 3. Evaluation Design 4. Sampling and Data 5. Resources 1. Intervention Description 2. Evaluation question 3. Evaluation Design 4. Sampling and Data 5. Resources

6. 1.Intervention Description  Ethiopia has just launched a tourism development project (ESTDP) with a purpose of narrowing the gap between its tourism potential and the economic value the country is currently making out of its historical, cultural and natural attractions and wonders.  The project is a multi-thematic and multi destination integrated project  Matching Grant Scheme (MGS) is one of the components of the project used as a vehicle to support private sector initiatives aimed at improving Ethiopian competitiveness in the tourism market  The MGS seeks to finance proposals submitted by the enterprises which prove to be innovative and significantly enhance the value chain in tourism sector

7. 1.Intervention Description..ctd  The Scheme in particular will help the skills beneficiary enterprises:  Upgrade the technological and managerial  Improve market intelligence and success and  Foster backward and forward linkages with in the private sector and eventually increase the spill-over effects of the entire tourism sector  As a demand-Driven intervention, the application to the Matching Grant should come from business enterprises  The applicant commits to bearing 50% of the cost of the proposal prepared as a business plan  A total of 3 mill. USD is allotted for the MGS and a maximum cumulative grant per firm will be 50,000 USD  The expected outcome of this intervention will be the provision of improved products and services to tourists at the destinations which will lead to more spending and longer stay by tourists

8. 2. Evaluation Questions 1. Did the beneficiary firms of the MGS increase the range and standard of the services they provide to tourists 2. Did tourist satisfaction improve due to the improved services provided by the MGS beneficiaries 3. Are more tourist coming into the country due to the effort of the MGS enterprises (increase in firm clients) 4. Have the annual turnover and profit of the enterprises shown significant increment for the MGS beneficiaries more than the control group 5. Are more gender equitable new jobs created by the MGS beneficiary enterprises (male vs female jobs created) 6. Has the growth and progress shown among the MGS beneficiary enterprises resulted in spillover effects on other smaller enterprises

9. 3. Evaluation Design  National statistics show that more than 300 enterprises are licensed to engage in the tourism sector service provision  It is estimated that out of the total number of enterprises in the sector, about 200 firms shall apply for the MGS  Assumption is made that most of the enterprises demand for the grant of the maximum 50,000 USD and accordingly the project can reach 60 enterprises  It is expected that at least 120 of the 200 enterprises will be selected as eligible for the grant and also these selected enterprises would be capable of submitting a viable proposal and deliver if all secured the resource  The 120 enterprises selected will represent appropriate proportion of key industry segments of the value chain

10. 3. Evaluation Design…ctd.  Now we have a list of 120 eligible enterprises and this group of enterprises will be stratified based on the typology of the enterprises (Tour operators, Hoteliers and Travel and other service agents)  Then each of the strata will be divided in to two equal group each element in the group will be selected by lottery method and this process will result in having two groups each with 60 members and constituting appropriate proportion from each type of enterprises in the value chain,  The financed group will be the treatment group and the other will serve as the control group.

11. 4. Sampling and Data  Regarding sampling procedure for the evaluation, due to the fact that the number of units in both treatment and control group are small, then census is recommended and shall be implemented  The pool of data and information required to answer the evaluation question shall be collected using the following methods  Carry out firms survey (including all tour operators in Ethiopia)  Carry out clients survey  Design and implement tourism information system and use the data so generated

12. 5. Resource Requirement  The evaluation work demands the use of a consultant, enumerators installing and administrating tourist information system. Therefore the major cost items will be:  Consultancy  Training  Information system design and administration  Currently, the total project budget for M&E is about $640K  Support from the Impact Evaluation Researcher.

13. 6. Time line  Publicize the MGS March-June/2010  Call for Expression of Interest (EoI)-May/2010  Review the EoI and determine the treatment and control groups July/2010  Conduct Baseline Survey (Firm and client surveys) –August/2010  Support prospective beneficiaries in designing their business plan (BP) July-August/2010  Monitor the implementation of the BP of the selected enterprises Sep.2010-June/2011  Follow up surveys in July 2011  Carry out the analysis ---Impact evaluation August-December 2011

14. Thank You