1. Economic Conditions Society of American Military Engineers July 26, 2012 William W. Hall, Jr. Professor of Economics Department of Economics and Finance and Senior Economist H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services Cameron School of Business The University of North Carolina Wilmington hall@uncw.edu

2. Web Slides http://www.csb.uncw.edu/cbes/events/index.htm

3. Population Change 20002010 % Change 2000- 2010 Brunswick County 1 73,143107,43146.9 New Hanover County 2 160,307202,66726.4 Wilmington 3 75,838106,47640.4 Pender County41,08252,21727.1 Wilmington MSA274,532362,31532.0 North Carolina8,049,3139,535,48318.5 United States281,421,906308,745,5389.7 Source: Bureau of the Census, US Department of Commerce. 1 2 nd fastest growing county in the state 2 9 th largest county in the state 3 8 th largest city in the state

4. Wilmington MSA, NC, & US Economic Growth Source: US Department of Commerce; Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary, Economics Group, Wells Fargo Securities, July 20, 2012; Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast, UNC Charlotte, Babson Capital Management, LLC, June 5, 2012; Ravija Badarinathi and William W. Hall, Jr., for the H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School of Business, UNC Wilmington.

5. Forecast Risks “Fiscal cliff” Restrained export growth Inflation Federal Reserve action

6. “Fiscal Cliff” n. A moment in early 2013 when Federal tax cuts expire and automatic spending reductions take effect (see sequestration), removing $600 billion (4% of US GDP) from the already shaky economy over the coming year.

7. Options for Dealing with the “Fiscal Cliff” Congress and the White House could – Agree to a large package of tax hikes and spending cuts or – Rewrite the laws to postpone the cliff to another day

8. Options for Dealing with the “Fiscal Cliff” Congress and the White House could – Agree to a large package of tax hikes and spending cuts or – Rewrite the laws to postpone the cliff to another day (most likely)

9. Unemployment Rates Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.

10. Unemployment Rates Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.

11. Wilmington MSA Employment “Spider” Chart (10 Quarters Before and After the End of the Recession) Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School of Business, UNC Wilmington.

12. Wilmington, NC, MSA 2011 Employment and Wages Average Annual Wage NAICS Sector 2 % of Total Employment Wage ($) % of All-Sector Average % of State Sector Health Care & Social Assistance15.341,222109.396.3 Retail Trade14.223,83463.296.7 Local Government13.541,284109.2105.6 Accommodations & Food Services12.814,09537.494.7 Educational Services8.637,744100.194.9 Construction6.945,659121.1110.5 Public Administration6.042,940113.998.4 Professional & Technical Services5.861,371162.891.7 Manufacturing5.666,754177.1126.9 Administrative & Waste Services5.028,23074.993.3 All Sectors37,70089.5 Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce. 1 Largest ten employment sectors

13. Retail Sales Growth Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue.

14. Retail Sales Growth Rates (Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) Source: NC Department of Revenue.

15. Wilmington International Airport Air Passenger Traffic Growth Rates Source: Wilmington International Airport.

16. Wilmington International Airport Air Passenger Traffic Growth Rates (Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) Source: Wilmington International Airport.

17. Port of Wilmington Container Tonnage Growth Rates Source Source: NC State Ports Authority.

18. Port of Wilmington Container Tonnage Growth Rates (Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter) Source: NC State Ports Authority.

19. 2010 Travelers’ Expenditures County Expenditures ($ M) Payrolls ($ M) Employment (000) Sales Tax Revenues ($ M) Local Tax Revenues ($ M) Brunswick395.38 1 73.634.6020.4425.71 New Hanover400.88 2 91.625.0421.5915.72 Pender72.83 3 12.310.712.165.20 Wilmington MSA869.09177.5610.3545.7136.63 Source: NC Department of Commerce. 110 th in the state 29 th in the state 342 nd in the state

20. Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes (5-Month Centered Moving Average) WRARBCAR Source: NC Association of Realtors.

21. Average Annual Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes Source: NC Association of Realtors.

22. Average Quarterly Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes Source: NC Association of Realtors.

23. Foreclosures Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts. Brunswick County New Hanover CountyPender CountyNorth Carolina 20089001,10732753,938 % Change 2007-0883.341.336.89.0 20091,6421,48347360,251 % Change 2008-0982.445.844.611.7 20101,6931,88152166,282 % Change 2009-103.126.810.110.0 20111,4581,55941953,240 % Change 2010-11-13.9-17.1-19.6-19.7 ---------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- June 2010-May 20111,5771,79049962,277 % Change Previous Period-15.966.2-12.6-9.8 June 2011-May 20121,3231,77738950,996 % Change Previous Period-16.1-0.7-22.0-18.1

24. Eastern NC Military Installations 2010 Impact Camp Lejeune MCAS New RiverFort BraggPope AFB Seymour Johnson AFB Assigned Military Personnel48,00034053,0005,4005,600 Military Dependents10,5006,40016,2707,0005,200 Civilian Employees5,00048012,7001,000 Military and Civilian Payrolls$249.6 M$2.9 B$275.6 M$331.7 M Contracts with Local Vendors$3 B$261 M$457.8 M$131.9 M$199.6 M Source: Web Sites.

25. Upcoming Events Economic Outlook Conference – Tuesday, October 9, 2012 – Burney Center, UNC Wilmington campus

26. Special Thanks

27. Quarterly Barometer http://www.csb.uncw.edu/cbes/newsletter/index.htm

28. North Carolina’s Southeast http://www.ncse.org/