1. Food Security Concerns and Agricultural Policy: Their Environmental Implications for Indian Punjab R.S. Sidhu

3. Issues 1.What are the changes in crop pattern? 2.What is the relationship between production and procurement? 3.What are the implications of high growth in foodgrain production w.r.t. ground water resources and soil?

4. Gross value of crop output at 2001-02 prices (Rs. crore) RiceWheatCottonOilseedsPulses Sugarcan e Other cereals Aggregat e 1967-682394210361020345717637432587252145 %4.5940.3419.578.7714.650.8311.26100 1980-8118757483651749026776675353411198428 %19.0649.1417.772.726.780.364.18100 1990-91377357660229062115078725402272155232 %24.3149.3518.720.745.070.351.46100 2001-0251133982171956993020068382696175389 %29.1556.0011.160.531.140.481.54100 CGR (%)8.564.101.35-4.58-1.351.38-3.173.53 Source: Singh and Sidhu, 2004

5. Crop1970-711980-811990-912001-02 Rice8.2720.4930.5035.74 Wheat48.7748.7249.4849.09 Maize11.756.622.842.37 Gram7.594.470.910.86 Groundnut3.691.440.170.05 Rapeseed & Mustard2.192.181.120.70 Sugarcane2.721.231.532.05 American Cotton4.508.7010.477.28 Cropping Pattern in Punjab (% of GCA)

6. Inputs use pattern in Punjab YearArea under HYV Fert.UseIrriga- ted area (%) Tube- wells (In ’000) TractorsCropp- ing Intensit y (%) Rice (000h a) Wheat (000ha) Total (000 Nutrient tons) Per Ha NSA (nutrient kgs) Total (In Thousands) No./000 ha 70-71130158921350711925.31.3140 80-81109527577621808160011928.4161 90-911906327112202909380028968.5178 02-03253033751441340951150451106.8185

7. Average use of inputs for wheat and rice in Punjab (Per ha) Year/CropFertilizer use (kg of nutrients) Chemical Use (Rs. at 1980-81 prices) Wheat 1981-84156.7057.31 1998-2000224.00202.27 Paddy 1981-84180.50113.69 1998-2000182.80267.75

8. Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons) YearRice Wheat PunjabIndia% sharePunjabIndia % share 1981-82 to 1985-86181454185143.4276504619359.9 1986-87 to 1990-91204264832442.3270514222264.1 1991-92 to 1995-96239286131939.0312085156860.5 1996-97 to 2000-01283738006735.4399227307954.6 Source: Economic Survey, Government of India, various issues.

9. Changes in consumption expenditure (Rs/capita for 30 days at 1980-81 prices) Punjab All India Items1987-881999-001987-881999-2000 Rural Cereals18.6320.3028.6829.61 Pulses5.026.184.355.08 Milk and Milk products31.1435.159.4611.70 Meat, fish, egg1.061.553.554.44 Vegetables7.459.855.718.24 Fruits, fresh2.662.601.781.89 All food97.54106.7069.9779.36 Urban Cereals18.1320.7625.6629.01 Pulses5.436.885.866.66 Milk and Milk products29.3935.7016.5420.38 Meat, fish, egg1.922.576.147.36 Vegetables10.0711.359.1012.06 Fruits, fresh4.644.754.354.58 All food103.37116.3996.98112.90 Source: NSS data.

10. Brief Contours of Agricultural Policy in India India Land reforms 1950s Public Investments on Irrigation Development Setting up of Agricultural Prices Commission and Food Corporation of India for procurement of foodgrains, 1965 Green Revolution, 1966-70 Land ceiling and distribution of surplus land, 1972 Integrated Rural Development Program, 1976- National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development, 1982 Setting up of RRBs Economic Reforms, 1991 Implementation of WTO agreement, 1995 Targeting of PDS, 1997 Doubling flow of Institutional Agricultural Credit, 2005 Encouraging Agro-processing, 2005 Expanding Micro Irrigation, 2005 Agricultural Market Reforms, 2005

11. YearPaddyWheatBarleyMaizeGram Musta rd Cotton (Am) 1980-81 113130 105 165 250 304 1990-91 225 200180450600 620 2000-01 54061050044511001200 1625 2004-05590640540 525 14251700 1760 CGR (%) 1980-81 to 90-915.984.935.394.568.517.35 5.84 1990-91 to 2000- 019.2810.438.708.888.616.22 10.32 1999-00 to 2004- 05 2.451.703.744.547.219.14 2.12 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 WheatRapeseedGramBarleyPaddy Cotton Am Cotton DesiG'nutMaize 16.9516.418.321.29.025.822.524.621.5 Growth and Variability in Output Prices

12. Input and Output Prices Index for Wheat and Paddy in Punjab Year OutputFertilizerChemicals Wheat 1981-82100 1991-92176126.68205.10 1998-99366.9192.16317.9 Paddy 1981-82100 1991-92203.7112.6158.3 1998-99378.5180.6339.6

13. Agricultural subsidies in Punjab (Rs 10 millions) Year FertilizersElectricityCanal Irrigation 1985-862669411 1995-9656769330 1999-20001061193965 2003-041088807*37 * as per calculations of Punjab State Electricity Regulatory Commission. Source: Economic Survey of India and Punjab, various issues.

14. Realisation of cost and level of subsidy on power supply to agriculture 1991- 92 1992- 93 1993- 94 1994- 95 1995- 96 1996- 97 1997- 98 1998- 99 1999- 00 ACR (%) 10.449.3913.8122.2723.8316.34000 Subsidy Rs. million 4664.26448.47706.57201.67226.29250.414701.916903.920161.8

15. Share of different crops/enterprises and other activities in the research budget of the University YearResearch Budget (Rs. Million) Percentage of Research budget to Whe at & rice Cotton and S’cane Other field crops Horticu ltre Livesto ck and fishery Post harvest ing Market ing Others 198041.5161512 1651.223 1990144.1181218131130.524 2000547.1191012 40.730 2001608.520911 50.731

16. Growth and Variability in productivity of different crops in Punjab CropCGR 1965/66 to 2001-02CV of de-trended yield 1970-71 to 2001-02 Paddy2.729.08 Cotton0.2725.74 S’cane1.6615.65 Maize1.3913.33 Wheat2.764.88 Gram0.2519.57 Rapeseed2.5713.15

17. Increase in proportionate area of the central zone under water table depth of more than 10 meter YearCentral zoneSouth west zone 5-10 mt>10 mt5-10 mt>10 mt 19966925478 199849424312 20004153509 200410905210 In per cent

18. Per cent area under different water table depths in central zone

19. Ground Water Status in Punjab Rate of Exploitation (%) Blocks (in per cent of total) Sub- Mountainous Central (Paddy zone) South West (Cotton zone) Punjab Below 10078177647 100-20022631241 200-30001569 300-4000332 Above 4000231 Total Blocks366933138

20. Rise/ fall in Water table Sangrur 43  Patiala 33  Jalandhar 22  Amritsar 18  Kapurthala 17  Faridkot 13  Ludhiana 13  Ropar 08  Hoshiarpur-1 02  Gurdaspur 02  Hoshiarpur-2 05  Mansa 09  Ferozpur 17  Bathinda 21 

21. Average water table depth (m) in different zones ZonesMeasuredPredicted 1993200320132023 Sub- montane 17.618.519.420.3 Central11.116.221.326.5 South- west 6.88.910.913.3

22. N, P, K Status of Punjab Soils, 1981 through 2002 (In per cent samples deficient) Nutrient availability LowMediumHigh 1981-901991- 2002 1981-901991- 2002 1981-901991- 2002 N (OC)7866223202 P48622923 15 K8945514640

23. Deficiency of Micro nutrients in Punjab Soils (% samples deficient) DistrictYearCuFeMn Ludhiana1970002 20042722 Sangrur1990470 200001835 Amritsar1984000 20010412 Patiala1985142 2002053

24. Incidence of Diseases In 1970s Wheat -Yellow and brown rust -Flag smut -Karnal bunt Rice: -Disease free Cotton: -Disease free Present Position Wheat: -New HYVs became susceptible to new races of brown rust -Flag smut minimized -Karnal bunt became wide spread -Other important diseases: head scab, leaf blight Rice: -Bacterial leaf blight major disease; -Other diseases: sheath blight, sheath rot, false smut, kernel smut Cotton: -Leaf curl virus of cotton

25. Incidence of insect-pests In 1970s Rice: -Pest free crop Cotton: -Cotton white fly was a minor pest -American cotton bollworm reported in localized areas Present Position Rice: -Yellow stem borer and leaf folder are key pests -Others important are white backed plant hopper and rice hispa Cotton: -Cotton white fly became key pest -American cotton bollworm became epidemic

26. Incidence of Weeds In 1970s Rice: -Echinocloa (swank) was predominant Wheat: -Broad leaf weeds and wild oats were predominant Present Position Rice: -Echinocloa is predominant -New weeds: Ischeamum ruzosum (kanaki), Ceasulia axillaris (ghrilla), Sphenochlea zylancia Wheat: -Phalaris minor is predominant and has become resistant to Isoproturon through continuous use -New weeds in some areas: Rumex spinosus (jangli palak), Medicago denticulata (Maina)

27. Share of Livestock in Agriculture (Rs crore at 1980/81 prices) YearAgri.LivestockAgri+Milk Prod.Exp. on milk and milk products at 1985/86p (Rs/capita) Livestock000’ tonsRuralUrban 1985-862036944.82980.8403539.3637.15 (68.3)(31.7)(100)(33.17)(28.43) 1990-9123031271.33574.3514240.9637.65 (64.4)(35.6)(100)(33.17)(29.86) 2001-0228762026.74902.7793039.6945.2 (58.7)(41.3)(100)(34.62)(34) The figures in parentheses in case of expenditure on milk and milk proucts represent percent of food expenditure.

28. Factors affecting Milk Production YearMilk Prod. (000 tons) Milk Processing Capacity (‘000 lit/day) Coop. Milk collecting centers (No.) Per Capita Income (Rs at 1979-81 wholesale prices) Milk Prices (Rs/liter at 1980/81 consumer prices) 1980-8132219502593225882.82 1990-9151422090526334163.74 2001-0279305535581251114.14 CGR (%)4.579.113.083.112.40 Reg. Coeff. (Dependent: Milk prod.) 0.4620.2180.589442.50 (8.46)(4.28)(3.60)(3.83) Elasticity of Milk prod. -0.2350.1880.4000.282

29. Share of Livestock in NSDP of Primary Sector in different regions/districts (%) 1980-811990-912000-01 Sub-Mountain Zone 38.0835.52 38.65 Gurdaspur40.2737.7840.02 Hoshiarpur36.2432.6335.31 Ropar37.835.7743.09 Central Zone 34.3232.26 38.56 Amritsar37.4732.6944.97 Kapurthala32.825.4434.76 Jalandhar38.231.2535.04 Ludhiana34.0237.6144.9 Sangrur31.629.3332.79 Patiala32.1431.1634.4 South Zone 23.6520.93 25.4 Ferozpur28.0821.3527.22 Faridkot26.8920.4925.1 Bathinda12.420.9623.75

30. Determinants of Livestock Growth Depend: Share of Livestock in NSDP (primary) Sub- Mountainou s Zone Central Zone South Zone Reg. Coeff. (linear) Share of Livestock38.6538.5625.4 Economic Factors Av. Milk Yield4.264.683.84 Crop Productivity (Rs/ha)197732515324430-0.88 Real PCI (Rs at1980/81p)5430686660860.954 Institutional and Infrastructural Factors Milk Soc/100 sq km area19136 Villages/milk society2.342.231.910.59 Animals/Vet. Hospital307735554257 Road Density12612584 Urbanisation (%)2634270.27 Literacy (%)7871580.25

31. Thank You