2. INDONESIA FINALLY SEES END IN SIGHT OF THE TRIPLE DISASTER THAT STRUCK ON OCTOBER 25, 2010 October 25-27 – November 24, 2010 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

3. A M7.7 EARTHQUAKE, A 3 M-TSUNAMI- WAVE RUN UP, AND A LONG ERUPTION OF MOUNT MERAPI CAUSED LOSSES IN THE TENS OF MILLIONS, DISPLACED OVER 340,000, KILLING NEARLY 1,000, AND POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE HEALTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE FOR THOUSANDS,

4. INDONESIA HAS MORE THAN 17,000 ISLANDS

5. Sandwiched between two active earthquake belts, the Pacific “Ring of fire,” and the Alpide Belt, Indonesia experiences some of the most powerful earthquakes and volcanic eruptions on Earth.

6. Indonesia is home to 129 active volcanoes, with the two most active ones — Mount Kelut and Mount Merapi — located on the island of Java, which also contains the Indonesian capital of Jakarta, roughly 500 km (300 mi) northwest of them.

7. INDONESIA’S 129 ACTVE VOLCANOES (MOUNT MERAPI IS BOTTOM LEFT CENTER)

8. Monday and Tuesday: Oct 25-26 Indonesia endured two days of environmental extremes after a powerful earthquake, a tsunami, and a volcanic eruption struck the Java region of the Indonesian archipelago.

9. CASUALTIES: 538 ON OCT 26, BUT TOLL LIKELY TO RISE IN THE FUTURE The earthquake and tsunami run up left at least 500 dead, and the initial volcanic eruption left 38 dead, BUT, health impacts associated with Mount Merapi’s continuing eruption may have long-term impacts.

10. THE RESPONSE TO A HUGE HUMANITARIAN NEED BEGINS The Indonesian government started by constructing 4000 shelter homes, while Aid workers were scrambling to provide tents, food, clothing, and medicine to evacuees while awaiting international assistance.

11. THE M7.7 EARTHQUAKE Early r esponse was hindered by twenty-two aftershocks ranging from M5- 6.2

12. TECTONICS OF THE REGION The Australian and Eurasian plates meet in Indonesia, creating a tectonic setting favorable for generating earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions.

13. TECTONICS OF THE REGION (Continued) The Australian plate is moving northward and being subducted under the Eurasian plate in a zone marked by a submarine trench that can be traced from the northern tip of Sumatra to the Lesser Islands.

14. SUBDUCTION ZONE

15. SEISMICITY MARKS THE PLATE BOUNDARIES

16. THE TSUNAMI RESPONSE WAS EXACERBATED BY REMOTENESS OF THE ISLANDS

17. INDONESIA: LOCATION OF HISTORICAL TSUNAMIS INDONESIA: LOCATION OF HISTORICAL TSUNAMIS

18. The M7.7 earthquake generated a near-source tsunami with 3 m (10 ft) waves that struck within 5 minutes after the quake---so quickly that the regional tsunami warning system that was improved after the December 26, 2004 tsunami disaster, was ineffective..

19. The tsunami, triggered by the 7.7-magnitude undersea quake, hit the Mentawai Islands late Monday, leaving thousands homeless, killing at least 500 people, and sweeping hundreds out to sea.

20. TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP IN MENTAWAI ISLAND TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP IN MENTAWAI ISLAND

21. MENTAWAI ISLAND: MANY SWEPT OUT TO SEA MENTAWAI ISLAND: MANY SWEPT OUT TO SEA

22. SEARCH AND RESCUE HINDERED BY POOR COMMUNICATIONS SEARCH AND RESCUE HINDERED BY POOR COMMUNICATIONS

23. KNOWING WHERE, WHEN, AND WHY A TSUNAMI OCCURS IS A VITAL PART OF THE ART AND SCIENCE OF INTELLIGENT RISK REDUCTION.

24. Tsunamis Are Associated with Subduction Zone Earthquakes M7 or larger earthquakes that occur in oceanic subduction zones can cause:  Tsunamis

25. A TSUNAMI WAVE CAN REACH 10 M OR MORE IN HEIGHT A TSUNAMI WAVE CAN REACH 10 M OR MORE IN HEIGHT

26. TSUNAMI HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES WAVE RUNUP FLOODING WAVE RETREAT SHORELINE EROSION

27. HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

28. THE ART AND SCIENCE OF KNOWING WHEN TO EVACUATE BEFORE A TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVES AND WHERE TO GO CAN BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH.

29. INTELLIGENT EVACUATION:LEAVE THE AREA OR EVACUATE VERTICALLY LEAVE, IF ENOUGH ADVANCE WARNING EVACUATE TO A TALL BUILDING OR A HIGHER ELEVATION TO GET BEYOND REACH OF THE TSUNAMI’S WAVE RUNUP. LEAVE, IF ENOUGH ADVANCE WARNING EVACUATE TO A TALL BUILDING OR A HIGHER ELEVATION TO GET BEYOND REACH OF THE TSUNAMI’S WAVE RUNUP.

30. YOU CAN’T OUTRUN OR DIVERT 10-M-HIGH, DEBRIS-LADEN, OCEAN WAVES THAT ARRIVE WITH A HIGH VELOCITY (E.G., 30 TO 300 KM/HR) AND MOVE INLAND FOR 2-3 KM, OR MORE

31. EXAMPLE 1: GREAT SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE-INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI DISASTER DECEMBER 26, 2004 (A Sunday morning)

32. ABOUT ½ HOUR FOR TSUNAMI WAVES TO REACH BANDA ACHE; LONGER FOR OTHER LOCATIONS

34. THE FACTS THE TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY A SHALLOW, M 9.3 EARTHQUAKE LOCATED 260 KM (155 MI) FROM BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA

35. THE FACTS THE TSUNAMI WAVES HAD HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 10 M AND RUNUP OF 3.3 KM OR MORE ON THE COAST LINES OF 12 NATIONS

36. THE FACTS THE EXISTING TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM WAS INEFFECTIVE. LITTLE OR NO EVACUATION.

37. THE FACTS (Continued) AN ESTIMATED 220,000 PEOPLE WERE KILLED (120,000 IN INDONESIA) AND 500,000 INJURED IN 12 COUNTRIES BORDERING THE INDIAN OCEAN

38. KNOWING THE ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO IS A VITAL PART OF THE ART AND SCIENCE OF INTELLIGENT EVACUATION.

39. THE CURRENT VOLCANIC ERUPTION --- BUT, MOUNT MERAPI MAY NOT BE FINISHED YET!

40. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS

41. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) LAVA FLOWS LAHARS EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) “VOLCANIC WINTER”

42. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES PURPOSE LAND-USE CONTROL EVACUATION PURPOSE LAND-USE CONTROL EVACUATION TECHNIQUE MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS COMMUNITY EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN TECHNIQUE MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS COMMUNITY EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN

43. YOU CAN’T OUTRUN OR DIVERT A PYROCLASTIC FLOW OF HOT ASH AND ROCK FRAGMENTS THAT TYPICALLY FLOW DOWN A VOLCANO’S SLOPES AT SPEEDS UP TO 60 MI/HR.

44. MOUNT MERAPI, INDONESIA Mount Merapi has a history of starting full scale erupt- ions with a pyroclastic cloud and flow.

45. MOUNT MERAPI ERUPTED THREE TIMES: OCT 26, 2010

46. SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER MERAPI’S ERUPTION

47. MERAPI’S ERUPTION CONTINUES: NOV 1

48. 70,000 EVACUATED AS ERUPTION CONTINUES: NOV 2

49. A LARGE ERUPTION: NOV 3

50. FLAWS IN EVACUATION FACILITIES EXPOSED : NOV 2 Tens of thousands of evacuees, who were anxious to go home to check on livestock and homes, found the camps cramped and unsanitary, but they were unable to go because there was no lull or clear end in Merapi’s eruption cycle.

51. In consideration of the violence of the eruption on November 3 rd, the government widened the radius of the evacuation zone around Merapi from 5 to 10 km, and eventually to 12 km.

52. Aid workers say the conditions in the evacuee camps are very poor, with some shelters having as few as five lavatories for every thousand residents.

53. MERAPI’S ERUPTION ON NOV 5 WAS VERY VIOLENTT Just before midnight, Merapi erupted with a 10 km ash plume that affected locations 250 km away and a pyroclastic cloud of ash and rock fragments that raced down the slopes at speeds of up to 100 km per hour.

54. ERUPTIONS CONTINUES : NOV 6

55. FLIGHTS TO JAKARTA CANCELED BECAUSE OF THE ASH CLOUDS.

56. Deaths continued to climb daily from the continuing eruption of Mount Merapi: 38 (Oct 26) to 56 to 118 to 138 to 156 (Nov 8) to 191(Nov 10).

57. NOV. 6 TH : A massive aid operation is underway to provide humanitarian assistance to some 200,000 people who fled the most violent eruptions in 100 years, especially on Thursday night (Nov 4 th ), which killed over 70 people.

58. Local government, the security forces, the Indonesian Red Cross, NGOs and hundreds of volunteers are distributing food, water and organizing basic medical care.

59. The European Commission decided to provide Euro 1.5 million (US$ 2.1 million) through its Humanitarian Aid department (ECHO) for assistance to the survivors of the tsunami in western Sumatra and to those displaced by the volcano.

60. MERAPI’S ERUPTIONS CONTINUE : NOV 10

61. USA SENDS THREE VOLCANO EXPERTS WITH EXPERIENCE IN THE MAY 1980 ERUPTION OF MOUNT ST HELENS TO ASSIST INDONESIAN EXPERTS IN THEIR ASSESSMENTS OF MERAPI.

62. Merapi’s eruptions, which began on Oct. 26, passed the 120-hour mark on Nov. 11, eclipsing its old record set in 1872.

63. NEW HEALTH CARE PROBLEMS: HIGH SULFUR DIOXIDE : NOV 11

64. NOV 11: According to the National Disaster Management Agency, 194 deaths, 598 people are hospitalized, and 343,909 people have been evacuated to the safety zone, 12.4 miles (20 km) away from Merapi.

65. NEW THREAT-FLASH FLOODS: Volcanic debris has clogged many of the rivers (e.g., Code River) that begin on Merapi's slopes, and officials are now worried that cold lava could overwhelm these rivers and create conditions for flash floods.

66. ASH-COVERED SCHOOL: NOV 14

67. NOV 15 th Evacuees begin returning home to take care of livestock and to assess vitality of resuming their former livelihoods

68. AS OF NOV 16 th Merapi had emitted more than 140 million cubic meters of materials, higher than the 100 million cubic meters emitted in 1872 and the 14 million cubic meters emitted in 2006.

69. ASH-COVERED TERRAIN: NOV 18

70. The month-long eruptions of Mount Merapi also damaged 867 hectares of forested land on the volcano`s slopes in Sleman District, Yogyakarta, with material losses estimated at Rp33 billion.

71. Deaths from the ongoing eruption of Mount Merapi continued to climb daily, going from: 38 (Oct 26) to 56 to 118 to 138 to 156 (Nov 8) to 190 (Nov 10) to 250 (Nov 14) to 275 (Nov 18).

72. IMPATIENT EVACUEES BEGIN RETURNING HOME: NOV 18

73. NOV 18 th The Government spent an estimated $10 million to buy cattle as a means of keeping the farmers from returning home too soon to face almost certain health-care problems and death.

74. NOV 19 th The Government declared that it will end the emergency response period for the Mount Merapi volcanic eruption disaster on November 24 th

75. After the end of the emergency response period, the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) will begin implementing the reconstruction and rehabilitation programs for Mt Merapi victims

76. The BNPB has at its disposal Rp397 billion to help disaster victims, with 80 percent allocated to meet the victims` physical needs and 20 percent allocated for operational expenses..

77. "Houses that have been damaged or destroyed will be rebuilt; people who have lost cattle will be financially compensated, and food will be provided for those who lost crops.

78. But there also was more than Rp3 trillion in stand-by funds to respond to the needs of reconstruction and rehabilitation