1. Divided Korea: Genesis of a Nuclear Flashpoint Whence the “Axis of Evil?”

2. Two Koreas Today  South Korea  GDP Per Capita $20,400  Military Expenses $21.06 billion  Military as share of GDP 2.6%  Population 48,846,823  Infant mortality 6.16 deaths/1,000 live births  North Korea  GDP Per Capita $1,800  Military Expenses $5.21 Billion  Military as share of GDP 31%  Population 23,113,019  Infant Mortality 23.29 deaths/1,000 live births

3. Geography

4.  Division roughly along the 38 th Parallel  North Korea: Communist, anti- American  South Korea: Capitalist, pro- American

5. Korean History  1910 Japanese Annexation Western and US Complicity  Taft-Katsura Agreement Domestic Independence Movements  March 1 st Movement, 1919 Independence Movements in Exile  US Based: Syngman Rhee  China and Soviet Based: Kim Il Sung

6. Korean History  Repression under Japan Japanese Language Japanese Names Japanese Education Forced labor and military service, “Comfort Women”

7. WW II in Korean History  World War II  Pearl Harbor  US Plan: Germany first, then Japan

8. WW II in Korean History  Cairo Conference: 1943 Korea to be occupied Korean Independence “in due time”

9. WW II in Korean History  Yalta Conference: Feb. 4—11, 1945 USSR to join war on Japan 3 months after German surrender USSR to participate in occupation of Korea  Potsdam Conference July 17—Aug. 2, 1945 Yalta Conference arrangements for Korea Confirmed

10. WW II in Korean History  August 6, 1945, Atom bomb on Hiroshima  August 8, 1945, Russians enter the war against Japan, fulfilling their Yalta Conference agreement  August 9, 1945, Atom bomb on Nagasaki  August 10/11, 1945 (about midnight), young colonels, Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel, under orders from Gen. McArthur, draw a division line at the 38th parallel, keeping the capital city, Seoul, in the American area.  August 15, 1945, Japan Surrenders.

11. Cold War History: Korea  USA/USSR tensions emerge almost at once  USA envisions capitalist democracy  USSR envisions communist government

12. South Korean History  October, 1945  Syngman Rhee returned to South Korea from the US  Welcomed as a nationalist resistance leader by US leadership.

13. North Korean History  October, 1945  Kim Il Sung returns to North Korea from Manchuria  Welcomed by Soviets as a nationalist resistance leader

14. Cold War History: US  Containment 1947  George Kennan writes Mr. X article  Coins term and policy of Containment

15. Two Koreas  Emerging Cold War conflict between USA and USSR  Joint elections impractical  Two separate Korean Governments established  1948 “Elections” in both North and South Korea

16. Two Koreas  Republic of Korea (South)  Syngman Rhee’s Government 1948- 1960  Pro-American  Capitalist  Anti-communist  Pro Christian  Authoritarian  Corrupt  Inept  Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North)  Kim Il Sung’s Government 1948- 1994  Pro-Soviet / Pro- Chinese  Anti-American  Communist  Becomes anti-religion  Authoritarian  Isolationist

17. Korean War  January 12, 1950  United States Secretary of State Dean Acheson  US Press Club: RE: America's Pacific defense perimeter  Implies that the U.S. might not fight over Korea  This omission encouraged the North and the Soviets

18. Korean War  War begins June 25, 1950: North Korea Invades  Incheon landing, September 15 - September 28, 1950  Chinese entry, October, 1950  January 4, 1951, Communist Chinese and North Korean forces recapture Seoul.  MacArthur was removed from command by President Truman on April 11, 1951.  Stalemate, July, 1951

19. Korean Division  Originally 38 th parallel  Post Korean War: Red line called the DMZ

20. Korean War Ends  Cease Fire July 27, 1953  Neither Korea Signed Armistice  State of war continues  Both Koreas considered themeslves the only legitimate authority  Both Koreas had aurhoritarian dictatorships at least through 1987

21. Post Korean War History  South Korea: 40,000 US troops remain to guard South Korea US supports pro American authoritarian regimes  North Korea: Chinese troops leave North argues that South Korea is an occupied country, not independent North sees US troops as a threat

22. South Korean History  South Korea  Corruption, incompetence, and cheating on elections leads to Syngman Rhee’s departure 1960  Military Coup brings Military to power in South Korea

23. South Korean History  Park Chung Hee leads South Korea Military Dictator Harsh discipline Anti-communist Economic development for national security Fantastic economic growth Terrible human rights

24. North Korean History  Kim Il Sung in North Korea  Juche Ideology National independence  Aligned with USSR and China  Plays them off against each other until 1991  Standard pattern of brinksmanship to get what he wants

25. North Korea  North Korea sees 40,000 US troops on its southern border as a major threat South Korea is simply a colony of the US. NO need to work with SK, it is the US that matters.  Develops Juche ideology of independence Economic independence Military independence Focus on People’s needs In reality, Juche is a failure both in independence and in People’s needs.

26. North Korea  Authoritarian  Anti religious persecution  Inefficient production, very little economic growth  Becomes progressively less secure as South Korea outgrows the North

27. North Korea  Cold War ends  Communist Block Collapses 1991  North Korea can’t play China and Russia against each other  South Korean President Roh Tae Woo (1988-1993) launches “Norde Politic” drive and normalizes relations with China and Russia, Isolating North Korea

28. Northern Crisis  Isolated North Korea has difficulty feeding its population Bad weather Communist incentive structure Poor distribution No more cheap resources from China and Russia 25-30% of GDP spent on military

29. Nuclear Crisis North Korea launches Nuclear program, 1990 1994: NK Withdraws from membership with International Atomic Energy Agency  Jimmy Carter visits Korea representing Clinton Administration 1994 Agreed Framework negotiated  N. Korea gives up nuclear weapons for energy support  Korean Economic Development Organization (KEDO) formed to help N. Korean energy development.

30. Relevant History  Kim Il Sung dies in 1994  Kim Jong Il succeeds his father and continues his father’s government patterns  US and most experts expected North Korea to collapse under economic strains and leadership transition.

31. Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework  DPRK's nuclear power plants would be replaced with light water reactor (LWR) power plants by a target date of 2003.  Oil for heating and electricity production would be provided while DPRK's reactors were shut down, until completion of the first LWR power unit.

32. Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework  The two sides would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.  The U.S. would provide formal assurances to the DPRK, against the threat or use of nuclear weapons by the U.S.  The DPRK would take steps to implement the Korean Peninsula Denuclearization Declaration.

33. Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework  The DPRK would remain a party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.  IAEA ad hoc and routine inspections would resume for facilities not subject to the freeze.  Existing spent nuclear fuel stocks would be stored and ultimately disposed of without reprocessing in the DPRK.  DPRK would come into full compliance with its safeguards agreement with the IAEA

34. Nuclear Crisis US compliance with Agreed Framework is spotty North Korea doesn’t get adequate energy NK continues pattern of “brinksmanship” to improve their position

35. South Korean Response  President Kim Dae Jung (1998-2003) Initiates “Sunshine Policy” Attempts for the first time to engage NK with positive incentives Negotiates some trade and family exchanges

36. Axis of Evil and Bush Doctrine 2002 State of the Union President Bush includes North Korea in “Axis of Evil” with Iraq and Iran Iraq Invasion President Bush declares the “Bush Doctrine” of preemptive war US invades Iraq

37. North Korean Reaction 2003 Withdraw from Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty Declares NK a nuclear power Insists on addressing only US, not 6-party talks

38. South Korean Response  President Roh Moo Hyun (2003--) Continues Sunshine policy Disagrees with Bush administration on hard line approach

39. Conclusions North Korea’s Nuclear threat derives from North Korean perception of insecurity Korea’s division created that insecurity North Korea sees US as the core threat (40,000 US troops aimed at them) Bush Doctrine and US behavior since 2001 reinforces perception of threat

40. Conclusions North Korean leadership is NOT crazy nor suicidal North Korea uses aggressive negotiating tactics to achieve its ends North Korea is unlikely to USE nuclear weapons Panic or over-reaction to North Korean provocations are counterproductive