1. SOYBEAN OUTLOOK More Questions than Answers Midwest, Great Plains, and Western Outlook Conference Louisville, Kentucky
Jim Hilker
Department of Agricultural, Food, And Resource Economics
Michigan State University
August 15-16, 2011

2. 2011-2012 Continued Volatility Weather, Frost Scare, U.S. and World
U.S. and World Economy
Energy Prices
Value of the Dollar
Fight for Acres
South America plants knowing our crop size
It is hard enough to forecast when we are in the range of our data. And when we are not?

4. Monthly Soybean Futures

5. Weekly Soybean Futures

6. Nov 2011 Soybean Futures

7. Cumulative Probability Distribution November 2011 Soybean Futures
Current Futures Price =
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity =
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity =
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8. Cumulative Probability Distribution November 2008 Soybean Futures

9. Cumulative Probability Distribution November 2012 Soybean Futures
Current Futures Price =
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity =
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity =
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28. Day Soybean Meal Futures

32. Day Soybean Oil Futures

44. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

45. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

46. Export Pace vs. Last Year
Source: USDA, FAS

67. Day Soybean Futures

68. Nov 2011 Soybean Futures

69. Cumulative Probability Distribution November 2011 Soybean Futures
Current Futures Price =
Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity =
Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity =
perc =
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70. 2012 and Beyond Predict the Price of Corn
Calculate the Corn Gross Margin
Add Corn G.M. To Soybean V.C.
Calculate Soybean Breakeven Price
Now you have the Soybean Price Forecast

71. 2012 and Beyond Continued Volatility U.S. and World Economy
Weather, U.S. and World
U.S. and World Economy
Value of the Dollar
U.S. and World Trade Policy
U.S. and World Energy Policy
A very short world soybean crop
A very large soybean crops
Fight for acres

72. Pricing Considerations
What should Sellers Do?
Can we predict the basis?

75. Day Soybean Futures

76. Nov 2011 Soybean Futures

77. Pricing Considerations
What should Buyers Do?
Buying opportunity?
Soymeal
Corn
DG’s
Other

79. Day Soybean Meal Futures

80. Dec 11 Soymeal Futures

81. Thanks Questions/Discussion
Jim Hilker’s Web Page