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Interest Rate Monitor May 5 th 2009. 2 Internationally.

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Presentation on theme: "Interest Rate Monitor May 5 th 2009. 2 Internationally."— Presentation transcript:

1 Interest Rate Monitor May 5 th 2009

2 2 Internationally

3 3 Recap of the Week: End of a Strong April Indices this week Stocks rose Friday, as a few better-than-expected economic reports and a rally in oil stocks gave a boost to the broader market. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 44 points or 0.5%,the S&P 500 (SPX) index added 5 points or 0.5%, the NASDAQ composite (COMP) rose 2 points, or 0.1% Indices this month All 3 major gauges ended higher for the week. The Dow and S&P 500 have now gained for 7 of the last 8 weeks. The NASDAQ has gained for 8 weeks in a row. Stocks are coming off a strong April in which bets that the economy is close to stabilizing fueled a big run up. For the month, the NASDAQ gained 12.3%, the S&P 500 gained 9.4% and the Dow Jones gained 7.3%.

4 4 Recap of the Week: Other Markets Currencies: The U.S. dollar and yen fell Friday as improving risk appetite sparked by better- than-expected U.S. economic data pared demand for both currencies as a refuge against a global slowdown. The dollar fell for a fourth straight session versus the euro, while the yen dropped to a two-week low against both the euro and dollar, with volumes thin given the May Day holiday in Europe. In early afternoon trading, the euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to $1.3258 and touched a two-week high against the yen at ¥132.33. The euro last traded at 131.90, up 1.2% from late on Thursday.

5 5 Recap of the Week: Other Markets Crude Oil: Oil prices ended above $53 a barrel Friday for the first time in more than a month as new economic reports showed that the nation's recession may be easing. Oil climbed as high as $53.65 earlier in the session. The last time oil settled above $53 a barrel was March 26, when oil ended the session at $54.34 a barrel. Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.15% from 3.14% Thursday, after the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 40.1 in April from 36.3 in March versus forecasts for a rise to 38.4. Any reading under 50 indicates the sector is contracting, but the report contained signs the decline in manufacturing is slowing.

6 6 Not Too Huge to Fall Chrysler Files For Bankruptcy Chrysler LLC filed for bankruptcy Thursday. But a deal has been reached to combine the company with Fiat in order to allow Chrysler to stay in business. The bankruptcy filing, which was made in federal court in New York, comes after some of Chrysler's smaller lenders refused a Treasury Department demand to reduce the amount of money the troubled automaker owed them. In remarks at the White House, President Obama said that the bankruptcy filing is not a failure for the company but "one more step on the path to Chrysler's revival.“

7 7 Chrysler Files For Bankruptcy Obama vowed the bankruptcy process would be quick, efficient and controlled. A senior administration official predicted it would be completed within 30 to 60 days. The combination with Fiat is also due to close during that period of time. According to government officials, a new company will be formed that will buy the assets of Chrysler - its plants, brands, land, equipment, as well as its contracts with the union, dealers and suppliers - from the bankruptcy court. The company's liabilities and an unspecified number of Chrysler's 3,300 dealerships which now sell the Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep brands will be left behind in the bankruptcy court.

8 8 Next Week: Economic Calendar 4-8 May 09 DateGMTCcyEventCons.Previous 4 May 14:00USDPending Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)0.0%2.1% 5 May 09:00EUREuro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)-0.5% 5 May 14:00USDBernanke Testifies Before Joint Economic Committee-- 5 May 14:00USDISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (APR)42.040.8 6 May 08:00EUREZ Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)43.1 6 May 09:00EUREuro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)0.1%-0.6% 6 May 12:15USDADP Employment Change (APR)-643K-742K 7 May 11:45EUREuropean Central Interest Bank Rate Decision1.00%1.25% 7 May 12:30USDNon-Farm Productivity (1Q P)0.9%-0.4% 7 May 12:30USDUnit Labor Costs (1Q P)2.5%5.7% 7 May 12:30USDInitial Jobless Claims (MAY 2)--631K 7 May 13:30USDBernanke Speaks on Banking to Chicago Event-- 7 May 19:00USDConsumer Credit (MAR)-3.3B-7.5B 8 May 12:30USDChange in Non-Farm Payrolls (APR)-620K-663K 8 May 12:30USDUnemployment Rate (APR)8.9%8.5% 8 May 14:00USDWholesale Inventories (MAR)-1.0%-1.5%

9 9 Fed Fund 30 Day Product Rates 4/5Rates 27/4Product 0.21%0.19% FFK9 May 09 0.22%0.2% FFM9 June 09 0.23%0.22% FFN9 July 09 0.25% FFQ9 Aug 09 0.265%0.25% FFU9 Aug 09

10 10 US Treasury Yield Curve Yield 4/5/09 Yield 27/4/09 Yield 20/4/09 Tenure 0.05070.08110.05071 M 0.15210.12170.14203 M 0.29440.31480.35556 M 0.90680.91590.94812Y 2.01561.88171.85955Y 3.16092.93432.906110Y 4.07133.83953.753630Y

11 11 LIBOR Rates Tenure USD 17/4/2009 USD 27/4/2009 USD 4/5/2009 O/N0.2350.2050.23625 1-wk0.34750.321250.33125 1-mth0.44750.4350.41438 3-mth1.101881. 07251. 00688 6-mth1.636251.621251.54938 12-mth1.9151.930631.86438

12 12 Locally

13 13 Investments Increase In 1st Quarter Investors with around JD250 million of investments have applied to benefit from incentives and tax exemptions during the 1 st Q of this year compared to about JD227 million during the same period of 2008. Maen Nsour, the chief executive officer of Jordan Investment Board (JIB), mentioned that 85% of investments were industrial. Other sectors were transport (6.5%), tourism/hotels (4%) and health/hospitals (2%). The total registered capital of investments benefiting from investment laws in Jordan between 2004 and 2007 stood at JD1.1 billion with accumulative assets of JD4.7 billion. Of the total volume of investments registered in the 2004-2007 period, about 67% have already materialized and started operations or are­ under establishment and will be opened soon, according to a follow-up field study on projects benefiting from the Investment Promotion Law.

14 14 Investments Increase In 1st Quarter Investments Benefiting From Incentives And Tax Exemptions Foreign Investments Local Investments Total Investments 1Q 08 1Q 09 Investors with around JD250 million of investments have applied to benefit from incentives and tax exemptions during the 1st Q of this year compared to about JD227 million during the same period of 2008.

15 15 Interest Rate Watch Excess Liquidity As of May 4 th 2009, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ JD( 2,913.8 ) million. Unified Coupon Size of the Issue Maturity Date Issue DateLatest 3 yr Tbond 6.588%JD 50 mio22/1/201222/1/2009 T309 6.361%JD 50 mio29/1/201229/1/2009 T409 5.270% JD 70 mio26/3/201226/3/2009 T609 5.293% JD 50 mio2/4/20122/4/2009 T709 Latest 5 Years Tbonds 6.013% JD 50 mio9/4/20148/4/2009 T809 5.2% JD 50 mio16/4/201216/4/2009 T909 4.697% JD 50 mio23/4/201223/4/2009 T1009

16 16 Interest Rate Watch Corporate CDs 15M12M6M3M N.A.3.50%2.75%2.25%USD Capital Bank

17 17 Prime Lending Rates BankRateBankRate ARBK8.25%THBK8.50% AJIB7.75%HSBC8.50% BOJK8.75%JIFB8.50% JOCB8.75% JOKB8.80% CABK8.75%JONB8.50% EFBK8.50%Arab Land8.50% Audi8.50%Union Bank9.00% NBK8.25%BLOM8.50%

18 18 Prime Lending Rates

19 19 Chart of the Week

20 20 How Barack Obama Compares With Other Presidents At 100 Days The 100 th day of his presidency fell on Wednesday April 29th and Barack Obama remains popular. Despite the dire economic situation, his overall approval rating is a healthy 65%, only three percentage points lower than when he first took office, according to Gallup. Over the past 50 years, the approval ratings of presidents at the 100-day mark have varied widely. Democrats seem to do badly: Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter suffered a similar dip in their fortunes. But every Republican had gone up in the public's estimation after 100 days. Source: The economist

21 21 Disclaimer THIS REPORT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SELL OR HOLD ANY SECURITY. CAIRO AMMAN BANK HAS PREPARED THIS REPORT FROM SOURCES THOUGHT TO BE RELIABLE, THEREFORE; CAIRO AMMAN BANK DOES NOT HOLD ANY RESPONSIBILITY TO THE INFORMATION ENCLOSED HEREIN NOR TO THE DECISIONS BASED UPON.


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