1. Analyzing Historical Performance

2. 1 The Importance of Historical Analysis Understanding a company’s past is essential for forecasting its future. Using historical analysis, we can test a company’s ability to create value over time by analyzing trends in operating and financial metrics compete effectively within the company’s industry In this presentation, we will examine how to effectively evaluate a company’s previous performance, competitive position, and ability to generate cash in the future by: rearranging the accounting statements, digging for new information in the footnotes, making informed assumptions where needed A good historical analysis will focus on the drivers of value: return on invested capital (ROIC) and growth. ROIC and growth drive free cash flow, which is the basis for enterprise value.

3. 2 Evaluating Historical Performance To analyze a company’s historical performance, we proceed in four steps: Reorganize the company’s financial statements First convert the company’s financial statements to reflect economic, rather than accounting performance, creating such new terms as net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT), invested capital, and free cash flow. Analyze ROIC & Economic Profit Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures the economic performance of a company’s core business. ROIC is independent of financial structure and can be disaggregated into measures examining profitability and capital efficiency. Analyze Revenue Growth Break down revenue growth into its four components: organic revenue growth, currency effects, acquisitions, and accounting changes. Evaluate credit health and financial structure Assess the company’s liquidity and evaluate its capital structure in order to determine whether the company has the financial resources to conduct business and make short and long-term investments. Step 1:Step 2:Step 3:Step 4:

4. 3 Traditional measures of performance, such as ROE and ROA, include non-operating items and financial structure that impair their usefulness. ROE mixes operating performance with capital structure, making peer group analysis and trend analysis less meaningful. ROE rises with leverage if ROIC is greater than the after-tax cost of debt. ROA measures the numerator and denominator inconsistently (even when profit is computed on a pre-interest basis). To ground our historical analysis, we need to separate operating performance from non-operating items and the financing to support the business. The Problems with Traditional Financial Analysis Why do we need to reorganize the company’s financial statements?

5. 4 Modern Financial Analysis To prevent non-operating items and capital structure from distorting the company’s operating performance, we must reorganize the financial statements. We will create two new terms: NOPLAT. The income statement will be reorganized to create net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT). NOPLAT represents the after-tax operating profit available to all financial investors. Invested Capital. The balance sheet will be reorganized to create invested capital. Invested capital equals the total capital required to fund operations, regardless of type (debt or equity). By reorganizing the income statement and balance sheet, we can develop performance metrics that are focused on core operations: FCF = NOPLAT – Net Increase in Invested capital

6. 5 Reorganizing the Balance Sheet: An Example Operating liabilities are netted against operating assets Non-operating assets are not included in invested capital. Accountant’s Balance Sheet Economic Balance Sheet Assets Prior year Current year Prior year Current year Liabilities and equity Total funds invested Inventory Net PP&E Equity investments Total assets 200 300 15 515 225 350 25 600 Inventory Accounts payable Operating working capital 200 (125) 75 225 (150) 75 Invested capital375 Net PP&E300350 425 Equity investments Total funds invested 15 390 25 450 200 50 200 450 225 50 115 390 Interest-bearing debt Common stock Retained earnings Total funds invested Accounts payable Interest-bearing debt Common stock Retained earnings Total liabilities and equity 125 225 50 115 515 150 200 50 200 600 Note the redundancy of total funds invested Let’s rearrange the accountant’s balance sheet into invested capital and total funds invested for a simple hypothetical company (i.e. a company with only few line items).

7. 6 Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT) is after-tax operating profit available to all investors NOPLAT equals revenues minus operating costs, less any taxes that would have been paid if the firm held only core assets and were financed only with equity. Unlike net income, NOPLAT includes profits available to both debt holders and equity holders In order to calculate ROIC and free cash flow properly, NOPLAT should be defined consistently with invested capital. For instance, if a non-operating asset is excluded from invested capital, any income from that assets should be excluded from NOPLAT. Reorganizing the Income Statement: NOPLAT

8. 7 NOPLAT Taxes are calculated on operating profits Revenues1,000 Operating costs Depreciation Operating profit (700) (20) 280 Revenues 1,000 Operating costs Depreciation Operating profit (700) (20) 280 Interest Nonoperating income Earnings before taxes (EBT) (20) 4 264 Taxes* Net income (66) 198 * Assumes a flat tax of 25% on all income Operating taxes NOPLAT (70) 210 A/T nonoperating income* Total income to all investors 3 213 Reconciliation with net income Net income After-tax interest* Total income to all investors 198 15 213 Do not include income from any asset excluded from invested capital as part of NOPLAT Treat interest as a financial payout to investors, not an expense 3 213 Accountant’s income statement NOPLAT includes only operating-based income. Unlike net income, interest expense and non-operating income is excluded from NOPLAT.

9. 8 Calculating NOPLAT – Top-Down Approach To build NOPLAT, start with revenues and subtract traditional operating expenses, such as COGS, SG&A, and depreciation. NOPLAT Revenues 1,000 Operating costs Depreciation Operating profit (700) (20) 280 Do not subtract goodwill amortization From this number, subtract operating taxes. Operating taxes are the cash taxes that would have been paid, if the company held only core assets finance entirely with equity. Operating taxes NOPLAT (70) 210 To compute operating taxes, proceed in two steps: 1.Compute operating taxes by adjusting reported taxes for non-operating items 2.Adjust reported taxes by the increase in net deferred tax liabilities.

10. 9 Calculating NOPLAT – Advanced Issues Capitalizing R&D If a company has significant long-term R&D, do not subtract the annual R&D expense. Instead, capitalize R&D on the balance sheet and subtract an annualized amortization of this capitalized R&D. Capitalizing Operating Leases If a company has significant operating leases, capitalized the operating lease on the balance sheet and add back lease-based interest to operating profit. Convert the remaining rental expense to depreciation. Excluding Recognized Pension Gains & Losses. Pension gains & losses booked on the income statement are usually hidden within cost of goods sold. Remove any recognized gains or losses from NOPLAT. Unrecognized gains do not flow through the income statement, so no change is required for unrecognized gains.

11. 10 Evaluating Historical Performance To analyze a company’s historical performance, we proceed in four steps: Reorganize the company’s financial statements First convert the company’s financial statements to reflect economic, rather than accounting performance, creating such new terms as net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT), invested capital, and free cash flow. Analyze ROIC & Economic Profit Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures the economic performance of a company’s core business. ROIC is independent of financial structure and can be disaggregated into measures examining profitability and capital efficiency. Analyze Revenue Growth Break down revenue growth into its four components: organic revenue growth, currency effects, acquisitions, and accounting changes. Evaluate credit health and financial structure Assess the company’s liquidity and evaluate its capital structure in order to determine whether the company has the financial resources to conduct business and make short and long-term investments. Step 1:Step 2:Step 3:Step 4:

12. 11 Using ROIC to Compare Operating Performance Having reorganized the financial statements, we now have a clean measure of total invested capital and its related after-tax operating income. To measure historical operating performance, compute return on investment by comparing NOPLAT to invested capital: 20012002 2003 Home Depot (%)Lowe's %) ROIC: Home Depot vs. Lowes Home Depot’s outperforms Lowes when measured by ROIC.

13. 12 Measuring Value Creation: Economic Profit Home Depot ROIC improved between 2001 and 2003, but is the company using its investors funds more effectively than could be expected in the capital markets? To answer this question, we examine economic profit, defined as follows: 200220012003 Return on invested capital (ROIC) Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) 15.0% 10.1% 16.8% 9.0% 19.4% 9.3% Economic spread x Invested capital Economic profit 4.9% 21,37 9 1,048 7.9% 23,63 5 1,857 10.1% 26,18 5 2,645 Economic Profit = Invested Capital x (ROIC-WACC) Home Depot earned $2.6 billion more than “expected” based on the company’s risk profile

14. 13 Understanding Value Creation: Decomposing ROIC Compared to both its weighted average cost of capital, and that of its rival Lowes, Home Depot has been earning a superior return on invested capital. But what is driving this superior performance? Can these advantages be sustained? To better understand ROIC, we can decompose the ratio as follows: EBITARevenues Invested Capital ROICxx(1 - Cash Tax Rate)= As the formula demonstrates, a company’s ROIC is driven by its ability to (1) maximize profitability, (2) optimize capital efficiency, or (3) minimize taxes Profit MarginCapital Efficiency This equation can be organized into a tree…

15. 14 Understanding Value Creation: Decomposing ROIC  Home Depot benefits from a more efficient use of capital and a better cash tax rate. ROIC 18.2 13.9 Pre-tax ROIC 25.5 20.5 Cash tax rate 28.6 32.5 Average capital turns 2.3 1.9 Operating margin 11.0 10.7 Gross margin 31.8 31.2 SG&A/ revenues* 19.1 18.0 Depreciation/ revenues 1.7 2.5 Operating working capital/ revenues 4.2 4.6 Fixed assets/ revenues 38.9 47.4 Home Depot Lowe’s  This capital efficiency comes primarily from fixed assets, which in turn come from more revenues per dollar of store investment…

16. 15 Evaluating Historical Performance To analyze a company’s historical performance, we proceed in four steps: Reorganize the company’s financial statements First convert the company’s financial statements to reflect economic, rather than accounting performance, creating such new terms as net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT), invested capital, and free cash flow. Analyze ROIC & Economic Profit Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures the economic performance of a company’s core business. ROIC is independent of financial structure and can be disaggregated into measures examining profitability and capital efficiency. Analyze Revenue Growth Break down revenue growth into its four components: organic revenue growth, currency effects, acquisitions, and accounting changes. Evaluate credit health and financial structure Assess the company’s liquidity and evaluate its capital structure in order to determine whether the company has the financial resources to conduct business and make short and long-term investments. Step 1:Step 2:Step 3:Step 4:

17. 16 Analyzing Revenue Growth The value of a company is driven by return on invested capital, the weighted average cost of capital, and growth. And the ability to grow cashflows over the long-term depends on a company’s ability to organically grow its revenues. Calculating revenue growth directly from the income statement will suffice for most companies. The year-to-year revenue growth numbers sometimes can be misleading, however. The three prime culprits affecting revenue growth are: 1.Currency Changes. Foreign revenues must be consolidated into domestic financial statements. If foreign currencies are rising in value relative to the company’s home currency, this translation, at better rates, will lead to higher revenue. 2.Mergers and Acquisitions. When one company purchases another, the bidding company may not restate historical financial statements. This will bias one-year growth rates upwards 3.Changes in accounting policies. When a company changes its revenue recognition policies, comparing year-to-year revenue can be misleading.

18. 17 Organic Growth vs. Reported Growth To demonstrate how misleading year-to-year revenue growth figures can be, consider the following example from IBM. When IBM reported its first rise in reported revenues in three years in 2003, it became the subject of a Fortune magazine cover story. “Things appear to be straightening out dramatically,” reported Fortune. “Last year Palmisano's company grew for the first time since 2000, posting a 10% revenue jump.” But where is this revenue growth coming from? 200120022003 Organic revenue growth Acquisitions Divestitures Currency effects Reported revenue growth 0.5% 0.5 0.0 (2.9)% (1.8)% 2.1 (3.3 ) (2.5 ) (5.5)% (2.6)% 5.4 0.0 (3.9)7.0 9.8% IBM Revenue Growth IBM purchased two companies: Rational Software and PwCC Nearly 7% of IBM growth caused by the weakening dollar.

19. 18 Analyzing Revenue Growth: Currency Changes Companies with extensive foreign business will report revenues using both current, as well as constant exchange rates (CER). For instance, IBM reports a “year-to-year revenue change” of 9.8%, but a “year-to- year change constant currency” of only 2.8%. Had currencies remained at their prior year levels, IBM revenue would have been $83.5 billion, rather than the $89.1 billion reported. IBM Annual Report, Page 51

20. 19 Analyzing Revenue Growth: M&A Growth through acquisition may have very different ROIC characteristics than growth through internal investments (this due to the sizable premiums a company must pay to acquire another company). The bidder will often only include partial-year revenues from the target after the acquisition is completed. To remain consistent, reconstructed prior years must only include partial year revenue as well: Estimated 2002 revenue Partial year adjustment Transaction date Revenue adjustments IBM reported 2002 revenue Ten months of Rational Software Nine months of PwCC revenue IBM adjusted 2002 revenue 2/21/200 3 10/1/200 2 689.8 5,200. 0 10/12 9/12 81,186.0 574.8 3,900.0 85,660.8 Rational was a publicly traded company, so revenues are exact. PwCC was private and estimated using Hoover’s data. Three months of PwCC data was included in IBM’s 2002 financials. Therefore, we must add the remaining nine months, to make 2002 & 2003 consistent. Compute growth by comparing 2003 to this number

21. 20 Analyzing Revenue Growth: Accounting Changes Each year the Financial Accounting Standards Board (U.S.) and International Accounting Standards Board (Europe) make recommendations concerning the financial treatment of certain business transactions. Consider EITF 01-14 from the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which concerns reimbursable expenses. –Prior to 2002, U.S. companies accounted for reimbursable expenses by ignoring the expense entirely. Starting in 2003, U.S. companies can recognize the reimbursement as revenue and the outlay as an expense. –This “new” revenue will artificially increase year-to-year comparisons. Reimbursable Expenses As a result of the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s (FASB’s) Emerging Issues Task Force 01-14 (EITF 01-14), formerly known as Staff Announcement Topic D-103, “Income Statement Characterization of Reimbursements Received for ‘Out-of-Pocket’ Expenses Incurred,” the Company has included reimbursements received for outof- pocket expenses as revenue. Historically, TSYS had not reflected such reimbursements in its consolidated statements of income. Total System Services, Annual Report, page F-7 …

22. 21 Understanding Value Creation: Decomposing Growth Once revenues have been disaggregated, analyze revenue growth from an operational perspective. The most standard decomposition is: Revenue 11.3% 16.4% Revenue per store (0.1) 4.4 Number of stores 11.4 11.5 Dollars per transaction 3.7 4.2 Number of transactions per store (3.7) 0.2 Number of transactions per square foot (7.6)% (2.5)% Square feet per store 4.2% 2.7% Home Depot Lowe’s Home Depot (%) Lowe’s (%) Growth trees can be built using advanced versions of the decomposition formula presented above. How is Home Depot driving revenue growth?

23. 22 Evaluating Historical Performance To analyze a company’s historical performance, we proceed in four steps: Reorganize the company’s financial statements First convert the company’s financial statements to reflect economic, rather than accounting performance, creating such new terms as net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT), invested capital, and free cash flow. Analyze ROIC & Economic Profit Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures the economic performance of a company’s core business. ROIC is independent of financial structure and can be disaggregated into measures examining profitability and capital efficiency. Analyze Revenue Growth Break down revenue growth into its four components: organic revenue growth, currency effects, acquisitions, and accounting changes. Evaluate credit health and financial structure Assess the company’s liquidity and evaluate its capital structure in order to determine whether the company has the financial resources to conduct business and make short and long-term investments. Step 1:Step 2:Step 3:Step 4:

24. 23 Credit Health and Capital Structure In the final step of historical analysis, we focus on how the company has financed its operations. We ask: How is the company financed, i.e. what proportion of invested capital comes from creditors versus equityholders? Is this capital structure sustainable? Can the company survive an industry downturn? To assess the aggressiveness of a company’s capital structure, we examine Liquidity – the ability to meet short-term obligations. We measure liquidity by examining the interest coverage ratio. Leverage – the ability to meet long-term obligations. Leverage is measured by computing the market-based debt-to-value ratio.

25. 24 Credit Health and Capital Structure - Liquidity The interest coverage ratio measures a company’s ability to meet short-term obligations: EBITDA / interest measures the ability to meet short-term financial commitments using both profits, as well as depreciation dollars earmarked for replacement capital. EBITA / interest measures the ability to pay interest without having to cut expenditures intended to replace depreciating equipment. Home Depot ($ Million) EBITA6,847 EBITDA7,922 EBITDAR*8,492 Interest62 Rental expense570 Interest plus rental expense632 EBITA/Interest EBITDA/Interest127.8 EBITDAR/Interest plus rental13.4 110.4 2003 Interest Coverage at Home Depot * R stands for rental expense

26. 25 Credit Health and Capital Structure - Leverage To better understand the power (and danger) of leverage, consider the relationship between ROE and ROIC. The use of leverage magnifies the effect of operating performance. The higher the leverage ratio (IC/E), the greater the risk. Specifically, with a high leverage ratio (a very steep line), the smallest change in operating performance, can lead to enormous changes in ROE.

27. 26 Typical Leverage Ratios Across Industries Note:Market value of debt proxied by book value. Enterprise value proxied by book value of debt plus market value of equity Information technology Healthcare Aerospace and defence Industrial machinery Consumer discretionary Consumer staples Oil and gas Chemicals, paper, metals Telecommunications Airlines Utilities Median Debt-to-Equity, 2003 In percent To place the company’s current capital structure in the proper context, compare its capital structure with those of similar companies. Industries with heavy fixed investment in tangible assets tend to have higher debt levels. High-growth industries, especially those with intangible investments, tend to use very little debt.

28. 27 Closing Thoughts Understanding a company’s past is essential for forecasting its future. Through historical analysis, we can test a firm’s ability to create value… over time by analyzing trends in operating and financial metrics, and as compared to other companies within the firm’s industry When analyzing historical performance, keep the following in mind: Look back as far as possible (at least 10 years). Long term horizons will allow you to evaluate company and industry trends and whether short-term trends will likely be permanent Disaggregate value drivers, both ROIC and revenue growth, as far back as possible. If possible, link operational performance measures with each key value driver. Identify the source, when there are radical changes in performance. Determine whether the change is temporary or permanent, or merely an accounting effect.