1. Realities of Shipping Through the Northern Sea Route By Chris Hanson December 3, 2009 CEE 129/229 By Chris Hanson December 3, 2009 CEE 129/229

2. Beluga Breaks Through! (New York Times 9/11/2009)

3. Journey through the Arctic (Beluga 2009)

4. Beluga Route Map (Beluga 2009)

5. The Northern Passages (AMSA 2009)

6. The Science (Beluga 2009)

7. The Arctic Is Warming Faster

8. Sea Ice Is Diminishing

9. Sea Ice Minimums

11. Why utilize the NSR? What are the benefits? (Beluga 2009)

12. Because time is money... “By using the Northern Sea Route we could reduce the bunker consumption of the used low sulphur Intermediate Fuel Oil 380 by roughly 200 tons in total per vessel. This resulted in financial savings of about 100,000 US-Dollars alone for bunker costs with Beluga F-class vessels plus 20,000 US-Dollars daily for each day travelling the Northeast-Passage shortens the usual voyage time.” --Niels Stolberg, President and CEO of Beluga Shipping GmbH (Peresypkin and Vasilyev 2008)

13. ...and less time means less emissions. “We can use the Northeast- Passage only because of the effects of global warming, yet by doing so we reduce the bunker consumption and cut down emissions. With regard to the global CO 2 -balance this is a beneficial achievement.” -- Niels Stolberg, President and CEO of Beluga Shipping GmbH (Beluga 2009)

14. Beyond Shipping eTourism ePetroleum eRaw minerals eTimber © arcticfocus.com © adventures.ca

15. NSR Ports PORT PROFILE: MURMANSK Main range of cargoes: non-ferrous metals and alloys in packages (aluminum, copper, nickel) rolled ferrous metals coal in bulk apatite concentrate in bulk alumina in bulk scrap and iron-ore pellets in bulk chemical products in bags and big-bags construction materials Foodstuffs technological equipment in cases and without packing different cargoes in containers ISO-20 and ISO-40 Greatest cargo flows (2003 data): coal (5.5 mln tn) apatite concentrate (2.3 mln tn) cargoes in containers and general cargoes (638 th tn) Main export receivers: countries of Western Europe, in particular: Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Great Britain (Google 2009)

16. NSR Alternatives Due to seasonal limitations, environmental sensitivity, bureaucratic claims, safety concerns, and a slew of other issues, the NSR is not necessarily the preferred avenue of transit for all freight between Europe and Asia, or between Europe and the western coast of the Americas. However, under certain circumstances, the NSR proves to be a more appealing alternative than either the Suez Canal or the Trans-Siberian Railway. (Peresypkin and Vasilyev 2008)

17. So, what is holding us back? Why isn’t the NSR more heavily utilized? (Beluga 2009)

18. NSR Risks and Obstacles eNavigational hazards eLimited support eEmergency response eEnvironmental concerns eCollapse of indigenous communities eBureaucratic quibbles (Beluga 2009)

19. Now What? (Beluga 2009)

20. Brigham’s 20 Key Uncertainties Stable legal climate Radical changes in global trade dynamics Climate change is more destructive sooner Safety of other routes Socio-economic impact of global weather changes Oil prices (55-60 to 100-150 USD?) Major Arctic shipping disasters Limited windows of operation (economics) Atlantic circulation changes Maritime insurance industry China and Japan become Arctic maritime nations Transit fees Conflict between indigenous and commercial use Arctic enforcers (police force) Escalation of Arctic maritime disputes Shift to nuclear industry New resource discovery World trade patterns Catastrophic loss of Suez or Panama Canals Global agreements on construction rules and standards

21. Chris’ Key Uncertainties/Suggestions eImproved icebreaker fleet, ice- strengthened vessels eSpecific training for Arctic mariners eImproved meteorological services eMore navigational aids ePiloting services eImproved/expanded emergency response network eImproved/expanded port facilities eRevised tariff structure eInclude all stakeholders

22. What lies ahead? (Beluga 2009)

23. (Brigham 2008)

24. NSR Future eShipping in the NSR will remain largely regional, driven by natural resource development, increased tourism, and supply/import of goods. eTrans-Arctic passages will remain at a low frequency eACIA (2004): “Trans-Arctic shipping will be feasible in decades.”

25. For more information, check out these sources: e2009 AMSA Report (download at arcticportal.org) eACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge U. Press, 2004. http://www.acia.uaf.edu eNational Snow and Ice Data Center eNational Ice Center