1. Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi

2. 1955- 2003 Lambert and Chiang, (2007)

3. OLS regression for 1955-2003 Model Φ GFDL CM 2 01.4 +/- 0.2 GFDL CM 2 11.5 +/- 0.2 GISS E-R1.5 +/- 0.1 MIROC 1.5 +/- 0.2 MRI0.9 +/- 0.2 Observations1.6 +/- 0.1

4. OLS regression for 1955-2003: residual variance Modelr GFDL CM 2 00.020 GFDL CM 2 10.021 GISS E-R0.013 MIROC0.016 MRI0.029 Observations0.009

5. Into the future

6. Some references Hansen et al., (1983) Manabe et al., (1991) Huntingford and Cox, (2000) Sutton et al., (2007) Joshi et al., (2008)

7. Structure of talk Motivation Simple model of land-sea contrast. Comparison with complex models. Some stuff that I don't really understand.

8. ∆N = ∆Q, ∆T = 0

9. ∆N = 0, ∆T = ∆T eq

10. ∆T = 3K, ∆N = ∆T / λ

11. ∆A in some idealised 2xCO 2 and prescribed SST experiments.

12. And ∆T L against ∆T O

13. Structure of talk Motivation Simple model of land-sea contrast. Comparison with complex models. Some stuff that I don't really understand.

14. © Crown copyright Met Office CRUTEM3 vs HadISST2 1900-19541955-2008

15. © Crown copyright Met Office CRUTEM3 vs HadISST2 (masked to 1900) 1900-19541955-2008

16. © Crown copyright Met Office 1900-19541955-2008 CRUTEM3 vs HadISST2 (masked to 1900) 1.5 +/- 0.4 0.7 +/- 0.3

17. © Crown copyright Met Office 1900-19541955-2008 HadISST2 (masked to 1900)

18. © Crown copyright Met Office 1900-19541955-2008 1900-1954, constant Φ HadISST2 (masked to 1900)

19. Conclusions Annual mean ∆T L / ∆T O is remarkably constant – especially in observations. Simple model and GCM study suggests powerful land-ocean heat transport. Early 20 th century behaviour is different / problematic.