1. 1 Putting Advanced Transportation Technologies to Work for Clean Air and Energy Security The Mobile Source Technical Review Subcommittee April 18, 2001 David Rodgers U.S. Department of Energy The Mobile Source Technical Review Subcommittee April 18, 2001 David Rodgers U.S. Department of Energy

2. 2 OverviewOverview Why Use Alternative Fuels? Why Use Alternative Fuels? What Alternative Fuel Vehicles are Available Now? What Alternative Fuel Vehicles are Available Now? Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D Challenges Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D Challenges Advanced AFVs and Hybrid Vehicles Advanced AFVs and Hybrid Vehicles Vision for Transportation Deployment Programs Vision for Transportation Deployment Programs Selected Transportation Deployment Policies Selected Transportation Deployment Policies The Energy Policy Act (EPACT) The Energy Policy Act (EPACT) Federal Promotion of Clean and Efficient Vehicles Federal Promotion of Clean and Efficient Vehicles Why Use Alternative Fuels? Why Use Alternative Fuels? What Alternative Fuel Vehicles are Available Now? What Alternative Fuel Vehicles are Available Now? Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D Challenges Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D Challenges Advanced AFVs and Hybrid Vehicles Advanced AFVs and Hybrid Vehicles Vision for Transportation Deployment Programs Vision for Transportation Deployment Programs Selected Transportation Deployment Policies Selected Transportation Deployment Policies The Energy Policy Act (EPACT) The Energy Policy Act (EPACT) Federal Promotion of Clean and Efficient Vehicles Federal Promotion of Clean and Efficient Vehicles

3. 3 Why Use Alternative Fuels? Petroleum Displacement Petroleum Displacement Energy Diversity Energy Diversity Air Quality Improvement Air Quality Improvement Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Domestic Economic Development Domestic Economic Development Petroleum Displacement Petroleum Displacement Energy Diversity Energy Diversity Air Quality Improvement Air Quality Improvement Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Domestic Economic Development Domestic Economic Development

4. 4 Estimated World Oil Supply Source: EIA, Long Term World Oil Supply, July 28, 2000.

5. 5 U.S. Transportation Oil Demand 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 197019801990200020102020 GAP Source: Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 19, DOE/ORNL-6958, September 1999, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000), December 1999 Millions of Barrels per Day Domestic Oil Production Heavy Trucks Automobiles Light Trucks 1990 2000 2010 2020 325 384 455 507 Highway Carbon Emissions (million metric tons) Passenger Vehicles

6. 6 Transportation Share of Emissions Still a major contributor, despite reductions in new vehicle emissions achieved over the last decade Still a major contributor, despite reductions in new vehicle emissions achieved over the last decade CO NO x Lead VOCs CO 2 Particulates 79% 53% 13% 44% 33% 25% SO 2 7% Source: EPA

7. 7 Relative Greenhouse Gases 255075100 Zero Zero or a Credit Zero

8. 8 Summary of Present Situation The U.S. Transportation Sector: The U.S. Transportation Sector: Is 95% dependent on petroleum; Is 95% dependent on petroleum; Accounts for 67% of all U.S. petroleum use; Accounts for 67% of all U.S. petroleum use; Produces a significant share of U.S. pollutant releases; Produces a significant share of U.S. pollutant releases; Has major impacts on consumers, the economy, and the national trade balance; Has major impacts on consumers, the economy, and the national trade balance; Currently has no readily available alternative to petroleum; and Currently has no readily available alternative to petroleum; and Has limited infrastructure to support alternative fuels. Has limited infrastructure to support alternative fuels. The U.S. Transportation Sector: The U.S. Transportation Sector: Is 95% dependent on petroleum; Is 95% dependent on petroleum; Accounts for 67% of all U.S. petroleum use; Accounts for 67% of all U.S. petroleum use; Produces a significant share of U.S. pollutant releases; Produces a significant share of U.S. pollutant releases; Has major impacts on consumers, the economy, and the national trade balance; Has major impacts on consumers, the economy, and the national trade balance; Currently has no readily available alternative to petroleum; and Currently has no readily available alternative to petroleum; and Has limited infrastructure to support alternative fuels. Has limited infrastructure to support alternative fuels.

9. 9 Alternative Transportation Fuels Electricity Electricity Ethanol Ethanol Hydrogen Hydrogen Methanol Methanol Natural Gas Natural Gas Compressed Compressed Liquefied Liquefied Propane Propane 100% Biodiesel 100% Biodiesel P-Series P-Series Electricity Electricity Ethanol Ethanol Hydrogen Hydrogen Methanol Methanol Natural Gas Natural Gas Compressed Compressed Liquefied Liquefied Propane Propane 100% Biodiesel 100% Biodiesel P-Series P-Series

10. 10 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Available Now Electric Electric Ethanol Ethanol Natural Gas Natural Gas Propane Propane Electric Electric Ethanol Ethanol Natural Gas Natural Gas Propane Propane

11. 11 Electric Vehicles Low Emissions Low Emissions Quiet Quiet At least 4% of new vehicles sold in California starting in 2003 must be EVs At least 4% of new vehicles sold in California starting in 2003 must be EVs Low Emissions Low Emissions Quiet Quiet At least 4% of new vehicles sold in California starting in 2003 must be EVs At least 4% of new vehicles sold in California starting in 2003 must be EVs Expensive Expensive Limited Range Limited Range Toyota RAV4Ford Ranger

12. 12 Ethanol Vehicles Low GHGs Low GHGs Less Reactive Less Reactive Low GHGs Low GHGs Less Reactive Less Reactive Subsidy Required to be Cost Competitive Subsidy Required to be Cost Competitive Few Refueling Stations but Numbers Increasing Few Refueling Stations but Numbers Increasing Ford TaurusChrysler MinivanFord Ranger

13. 13 Natural Gas Vehicles Very Low Emissions Very Low Emissions Good Performance Good Performance Lower Cost Fuel Lower Cost Fuel Very Low Emissions Very Low Emissions Good Performance Good Performance Lower Cost Fuel Lower Cost Fuel Limited Range, but Adequate for Most Applications Limited Range, but Adequate for Most Applications Few Refueling Stations Few Refueling Stations Higher Cost Vehicle Higher Cost Vehicle Ford Crown VictoriaFord F-150 Honda CivicNew Flyer D40 LF Bus

14. 14 Propane Vehicles Low Emissions Low Emissions Good Performance Good Performance Cost Similar to Gasoline Cost Similar to Gasoline Low Emissions Low Emissions Good Performance Good Performance Cost Similar to Gasoline Cost Similar to Gasoline Few Typical Refueling Stations, Many Potential Places to Refuel Few Typical Refueling Stations, Many Potential Places to Refuel Higher Vehicle Cost Higher Vehicle Cost Ford F-150 Ford Club Wagon

15. 15 Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D Challenges EV Batteries EV Batteries Ethanol Production from Cellulose Ethanol Production from Cellulose Reduce Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Cost Reduce Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Cost Expand Refueling Infrastructure Expand Refueling Infrastructure Hydrogen Production (for Fuel Cell Vehicles) Hydrogen Production (for Fuel Cell Vehicles) EV Batteries EV Batteries Ethanol Production from Cellulose Ethanol Production from Cellulose Reduce Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Cost Reduce Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Cost Expand Refueling Infrastructure Expand Refueling Infrastructure Hydrogen Production (for Fuel Cell Vehicles) Hydrogen Production (for Fuel Cell Vehicles)

16. 16 Potential Future AFV Technology Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Vehicles Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Vehicles High Efficiency Direct Injection Engines for Light- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles High Efficiency Direct Injection Engines for Light- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Vehicles Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Vehicles High Efficiency Direct Injection Engines for Light- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles High Efficiency Direct Injection Engines for Light- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles Fuel Cell Ford FocusFuel Cell Mercedes A-Class

17. 17 Hybrid Passenger Cars Honda Insight Toyota Prius DOE programs have spurred interest in hybrid vehicle technologies DOE programs have spurred interest in hybrid vehicle technologies Two models currently available Two models currently available Toyota Prius (48 mpg) Toyota Prius (48 mpg) Honda Insight (64 mpg) Honda Insight (64 mpg) Potential for very low emissions Potential for very low emissions Represent a “Spin-Off” of technology developed for EVs Represent a “Spin-Off” of technology developed for EVs Good potential for petroleum conservation Good potential for petroleum conservation DOE programs have spurred interest in hybrid vehicle technologies DOE programs have spurred interest in hybrid vehicle technologies Two models currently available Two models currently available Toyota Prius (48 mpg) Toyota Prius (48 mpg) Honda Insight (64 mpg) Honda Insight (64 mpg) Potential for very low emissions Potential for very low emissions Represent a “Spin-Off” of technology developed for EVs Represent a “Spin-Off” of technology developed for EVs Good potential for petroleum conservation Good potential for petroleum conservation

18. 18 Vision for Transportation Deployment Programs A sustainable alternative fuel infrastructure A sustainable alternative fuel infrastructure Widespread availability of AFV and ATV products Widespread availability of AFV and ATV products True acceptance of diverse fuels and technologies in national/regional/local transportation portfolios True acceptance of diverse fuels and technologies in national/regional/local transportation portfolios Cost-competitive technologies and fuels in a variety of markets Cost-competitive technologies and fuels in a variety of markets A diverse fuel supply for transportation A diverse fuel supply for transportation A change in societal norms leading to demand for clean and efficient vehicles A change in societal norms leading to demand for clean and efficient vehicles A sustainable alternative fuel infrastructure A sustainable alternative fuel infrastructure Widespread availability of AFV and ATV products Widespread availability of AFV and ATV products True acceptance of diverse fuels and technologies in national/regional/local transportation portfolios True acceptance of diverse fuels and technologies in national/regional/local transportation portfolios Cost-competitive technologies and fuels in a variety of markets Cost-competitive technologies and fuels in a variety of markets A diverse fuel supply for transportation A diverse fuel supply for transportation A change in societal norms leading to demand for clean and efficient vehicles A change in societal norms leading to demand for clean and efficient vehicles

19. 19 Long-term Outcomes Billions of gallons of oil displaced or reduced Billions of gallons of oil displaced or reduced Thousands of tons of emission reductions Thousands of tons of emission reductions Tens of millions of AFVs and ATVs Tens of millions of AFVs and ATVs Enhanced energy security and improved transportation sustainability Enhanced energy security and improved transportation sustainability Billions of gallons of oil displaced or reduced Billions of gallons of oil displaced or reduced Thousands of tons of emission reductions Thousands of tons of emission reductions Tens of millions of AFVs and ATVs Tens of millions of AFVs and ATVs Enhanced energy security and improved transportation sustainability Enhanced energy security and improved transportation sustainability

20. 20 Deployment Strategies Understand the market Understand the market Develop and provide unbiased information Develop and provide unbiased information Offer technical and financial assistance Offer technical and financial assistance Develop, issue, and enforce regulations Develop, issue, and enforce regulations Find and support partners Find and support partners Conduct mission advocacy Conduct mission advocacy Understand the market Understand the market Develop and provide unbiased information Develop and provide unbiased information Offer technical and financial assistance Offer technical and financial assistance Develop, issue, and enforce regulations Develop, issue, and enforce regulations Find and support partners Find and support partners Conduct mission advocacy Conduct mission advocacy

21. 21 OTT Deployment Portfolio Clean Cities : A voluntary Federal program designed to accelerate and expand the use of alternative fuel vehicles in communities across the country Clean Cities : A voluntary Federal program designed to accelerate and expand the use of alternative fuel vehicles in communities across the country Testing and Evaluation : In partnership with industry, validate the performance and emissions of near market-ready advanced technology vehicles Testing and Evaluation : In partnership with industry, validate the performance and emissions of near market-ready advanced technology vehicles EPACT Replacement Fuels : To implement the requirements of EPACT, collect data, perform analysis, prepare reports to Congress, and prepare, issue, and enforce needed regulations EPACT Replacement Fuels : To implement the requirements of EPACT, collect data, perform analysis, prepare reports to Congress, and prepare, issue, and enforce needed regulations Advanced Vehicle Competitions : Student competitions, such as the FutureTruck Challenge and the Ethanol Challenge, provide an unparalleled education in automotive engineering and push the envelope of advanced vehicle technologies Advanced Vehicle Competitions : Student competitions, such as the FutureTruck Challenge and the Ethanol Challenge, provide an unparalleled education in automotive engineering and push the envelope of advanced vehicle technologies Clean Cities : A voluntary Federal program designed to accelerate and expand the use of alternative fuel vehicles in communities across the country Clean Cities : A voluntary Federal program designed to accelerate and expand the use of alternative fuel vehicles in communities across the country Testing and Evaluation : In partnership with industry, validate the performance and emissions of near market-ready advanced technology vehicles Testing and Evaluation : In partnership with industry, validate the performance and emissions of near market-ready advanced technology vehicles EPACT Replacement Fuels : To implement the requirements of EPACT, collect data, perform analysis, prepare reports to Congress, and prepare, issue, and enforce needed regulations EPACT Replacement Fuels : To implement the requirements of EPACT, collect data, perform analysis, prepare reports to Congress, and prepare, issue, and enforce needed regulations Advanced Vehicle Competitions : Student competitions, such as the FutureTruck Challenge and the Ethanol Challenge, provide an unparalleled education in automotive engineering and push the envelope of advanced vehicle technologies Advanced Vehicle Competitions : Student competitions, such as the FutureTruck Challenge and the Ethanol Challenge, provide an unparalleled education in automotive engineering and push the envelope of advanced vehicle technologies

22. 22 79 Designations 2 new in 2000 2 new in 2000 »Baton Rouge »Truckee Meadows 3 Designations Scheduled in 2001 3 Designations Scheduled in 2001 »Triangle, NC (March 19) »Twin Cities, MN (April) »Vermont (June) More than 4,400 stakeholders More than 4,400 stakeholders 115,000 AFVs 115,000 AFVs More than 5,000 refueling stations More than 5,000 refueling stations 102 million gallons of petroleum displaced per year 102 million gallons of petroleum displaced per year 19,000 metric tons of emissions reduced per year 19,000 metric tons of emissions reduced per year Clean Cities Program Accomplishments

23. 23 Evolution of Deployment Activities Reducing AFV emissions testing AFV emissions testing AFV case studies AFV case studies Light-duty fleets Light-duty fleets Analysis of AFV options Analysis of AFV options Neat fuels only Neat fuels onlyReducing AFV emissions testing AFV emissions testing AFV case studies AFV case studies Light-duty fleets Light-duty fleets Analysis of AFV options Analysis of AFV options Neat fuels only Neat fuels onlyIncreasing Hybrid vehicle testing Hybrid vehicle testing Fuel-efficient vehicles Fuel-efficient vehicles Niche markets Niche markets Analysis of future fuels Analysis of future fuels Blended fuels Blended fuels

24. 24 Selected Transportation Deployment Policies InformationFinancial Incentives Regulations & Standards YearPolicy 1991 & 1996ISTEA & TEA- 21 1992EPACT 1988AMFA 1975EPCA (CAFE)

25. 25 The Energy Policy Act Set a goal – 10% by 2000 and 30% by 2010 Set a goal – 10% by 2000 and 30% by 2010 Voluntary programs Voluntary programs Public Information Public Information Fleet mandates Fleet mandates Grants and incentives Grants and incentives Set a goal – 10% by 2000 and 30% by 2010 Set a goal – 10% by 2000 and 30% by 2010 Voluntary programs Voluntary programs Public Information Public Information Fleet mandates Fleet mandates Grants and incentives Grants and incentives

26. 26 Assumptions in 1992 EPACT Barriers to alternative fuels are primarily informational Barriers to alternative fuels are primarily informational The vehicle mandates solves the chicken/egg problem The vehicle mandates solves the chicken/egg problem Fleets are uniform, centrally refueled, and easily regulated Fleets are uniform, centrally refueled, and easily regulated Small tax incentives and grants are sufficient to push the market Small tax incentives and grants are sufficient to push the market Fuel providers will be the leaders in AFV use Fuel providers will be the leaders in AFV use Saying we have a goal is all that’s needed Saying we have a goal is all that’s needed Barriers to alternative fuels are primarily informational Barriers to alternative fuels are primarily informational The vehicle mandates solves the chicken/egg problem The vehicle mandates solves the chicken/egg problem Fleets are uniform, centrally refueled, and easily regulated Fleets are uniform, centrally refueled, and easily regulated Small tax incentives and grants are sufficient to push the market Small tax incentives and grants are sufficient to push the market Fuel providers will be the leaders in AFV use Fuel providers will be the leaders in AFV use Saying we have a goal is all that’s needed Saying we have a goal is all that’s needed

27. 27 Results Heading In Right Direction Federal State Fuel Provider

28. 28 Other Parts of EPACT Working Too Clean Cities has 80 participants - thousands of vehicles Clean Cities has 80 participants - thousands of vehicles Public information on AFVs widely available Public information on AFVs widely available Refueling stations have grown Refueling stations have grown Dozens of AFVs offered by OEMs Dozens of AFVs offered by OEMs U.S. AFVS among the best in the world U.S. AFVS among the best in the world Clean Cities has 80 participants - thousands of vehicles Clean Cities has 80 participants - thousands of vehicles Public information on AFVs widely available Public information on AFVs widely available Refueling stations have grown Refueling stations have grown Dozens of AFVs offered by OEMs Dozens of AFVs offered by OEMs U.S. AFVS among the best in the world U.S. AFVS among the best in the world

29. 29 But not good enough to meet the EPACT 30% goal for 2010 30% is about 30-40 Billion gallons 30% is about 30-40 Billion gallons Oxygenates in gasoline are predicted to continue Oxygenates in gasoline are predicted to continue Existing EPACT fleets and other AFVs contribute about 0.4% Existing EPACT fleets and other AFVs contribute about 0.4% Including Private & Local Fleets in EPACT could add at most 0.7% by 2010 Including Private & Local Fleets in EPACT could add at most 0.7% by 2010 30% is about 30-40 Billion gallons 30% is about 30-40 Billion gallons Oxygenates in gasoline are predicted to continue Oxygenates in gasoline are predicted to continue Existing EPACT fleets and other AFVs contribute about 0.4% Existing EPACT fleets and other AFVs contribute about 0.4% Including Private & Local Fleets in EPACT could add at most 0.7% by 2010 Including Private & Local Fleets in EPACT could add at most 0.7% by 2010 30 EPACT Fleets Oxygenates in Gasoline Other AF Vs Private & Local Fleets Percent of 2010 Gasoline Consumption EPACT Goal ?????

30. 30 What Had to Have Happened to Meet EPACT Goals To meet the EPACT goals would have required: To meet the EPACT goals would have required: about 6% of all LDVs in 2000 to be AFVs about 6% of all LDVs in 2000 to be AFVs about 35% of all new LDVs in 2000 and beyond to be AFVs about 35% of all new LDVs in 2000 and beyond to be AFVs To meet the EPACT goals would have required: To meet the EPACT goals would have required: about 6% of all LDVs in 2000 to be AFVs about 6% of all LDVs in 2000 to be AFVs about 35% of all new LDVs in 2000 and beyond to be AFVs about 35% of all new LDVs in 2000 and beyond to be AFVs Percent of New LDVs

31. 31 Federal Promotion of Clean and Efficient Vehicles Recognition of important Federal role Recognition of important Federal role Regulation may be necessary Regulation may be necessary Incentives may be necessary Incentives may be necessary Consumer education will be necessary Consumer education will be necessary Comprehensive program Comprehensive program Multiple market segments Multiple market segments Multiple technology options Multiple technology options Coordination and partnership Coordination and partnership Long term commitment Long term commitment Recognition of important Federal role Recognition of important Federal role Regulation may be necessary Regulation may be necessary Incentives may be necessary Incentives may be necessary Consumer education will be necessary Consumer education will be necessary Comprehensive program Comprehensive program Multiple market segments Multiple market segments Multiple technology options Multiple technology options Coordination and partnership Coordination and partnership Long term commitment Long term commitment

32. 32 Contacts at the Department of Energy Office of Technology Utilization David Rodgers Director, Tech. Utilization 202-586-9118David.rodgers@hq.doe.gov Linda Bluestein EPACT regulations 202-586-6116Linda.bluestein@hq.doe.gov Shab Fardanesh Federal fleet 202-586-7011Shabnam.fardanesh@hq.doe.gov Christy Ficker Green Vehicle Promotion 202-586-8791Christy.ficker@hq.doe.gov Shelley Launey Clean Cities Director 202-586-1573Shelia.launey@hq.doe.gov Dana O’Hara EPACT regulations 202-586-8063Dana.ohara@hq.doe.gov TG Powell Clean Cities & Student Competitions 202-586-8077Tg.powell@hq.doe.gov Marcy Rood Clean Cities & International 202-586-8161 Marcy.rood @hq.doe.gov Lee Slezak Testing & Evaluation 202-586-2335 Lee.slezak @hq.doe.gov Dennis Smith Clean Cities Niche Markets 202-586-1791 Dennis.smith @hq.doe.gov Dorothy Wormley Clean Cities Grants 202-586-7028 Dorothy.wormley @hq.doe.gov

33. 33 Resources at the Department of Energy Clean Cities Clean Cities 1-800-CCITIES 1-800-CCITIES http://www.ccities.doe.gov http://www.ccities.doe.gov Alternative Fuels Data Center Alternative Fuels Data Center Alternative Fuels Hotline 1-800-423-1363 Alternative Fuels Hotline 1-800-423-1363 http://www.afdc.doe.gov http://www.afdc.doe.gov Fuel Economy Guide Fuel Economy Guide http://www.fueleconomy.gov http://www.fueleconomy.gov EV and Hybrid Test Data EV and Hybrid Test Data http://www.ott.doe.gov/otu/field_ops http://www.ott.doe.gov/hev http://www.ott.doe.gov/hev Clean Cities Clean Cities 1-800-CCITIES 1-800-CCITIES http://www.ccities.doe.gov http://www.ccities.doe.gov Alternative Fuels Data Center Alternative Fuels Data Center Alternative Fuels Hotline 1-800-423-1363 Alternative Fuels Hotline 1-800-423-1363 http://www.afdc.doe.gov http://www.afdc.doe.gov Fuel Economy Guide Fuel Economy Guide http://www.fueleconomy.gov http://www.fueleconomy.gov EV and Hybrid Test Data EV and Hybrid Test Data http://www.ott.doe.gov/otu/field_ops http://www.ott.doe.gov/hev http://www.ott.doe.gov/hev