1. Presumed Guilty? Revolutionizing the Criminal Justice System in Mexico March 19, 2012 Matthew C. Ingram Visiting Fellow, Kellogg Institute (2011-2012) University of Notre Dame mingram@nd.edu Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science University at Albany, SUNY 1

2. Overview I.Challenges to legal system 1)internal: institutional capacity 2)external: crime and insecurity II.Criminal Procedure Reform of 2008 III.Judicial Survey (Justiciabarómetro) IV.Attitudes V.Factors Helping and Hindering Reform VI.Pending Challenges 2

3. Internal Challenges: Weak Institutional Capacity 3 Weak law enforcement capacity and/or complicity with organized crime; Ineffective justice system (criminal impunity, weak prisons) Crimes Sentenced 1.1 of crimes tried (91%) Criminal Investigations 4.6 of of 25 crimes investigated (18%) Crimes Prosecuted 1.6 of 4.6 investigated (35%) Crimes Brought to Trial 1.2 of 1.6 prosecuted crimes (75%) Known Crimes 25 of 100 crimes are reported (25%) All Crimes / Cifra negra Source: Guillermo Zepeda Lecuona (2007). Numbers rounded to nearest tenth.

4. Internal Challenges: Weak Institutional Capacity 4 Law enforcement: ineffectiveness vs. corruption no autonomous discretion to conduct investigations separately from public prosecutors Little to no training in crime scene protection and evidence preservation (field evidence techniques) Little to no training in effective interviewing, informant development, intelligence corruption

5. The Problem of Corruption 2009 Justiciabarómetro: Guadalajara Municipal Police Survey

6. The Problem of Corruption 2009 Justiciabarómetro: Guadalajara Municipal Police Survey Police Survey: At what level on the force is corruption the greatest?

7. Internal Challenges: Weak Institutional Capacity 7 Law enforcement: ineffectiveness vs. corruption no autonomous discretion to conduct investigations separately from public prosecutors Little to no training in crime scene protection and evidence preservation (field evidence techniques) Little to no training in effective interviewing, informant development, intelligence corruption o solutions thus far also ineffective o long line of police reforms restructuring federal agencies, group patrols, relocation, further reduction of discretion *** displacement of civil policing model by militarizing fight against organized crime

8. Internal Challenges: Weak Institutional Capacity 8 Ineffective justice system long delays or inaction, especially if poor system generally seen as unresponsive or abusive/unfair Examples from judicial process: accused generally held in custody, even pre-trial, in general population, and legal appearances are from behind bars prosecution works closely with judge evidence considered in investigation and entered into file (“expediente”) has probatory value accused and defense attorney do not see all evidence or file until hearing process is largely conducted in writing, adding documents and written responses to file judge at initial hearing is same judge at trial “Presumed guilty?”

9. External Challenges: Crime and Insecurity Drug-related Killings 9 Total between Dec. 2006 and Dec. 2011: more than 50,000 Source: Ríos, Viridiana, and David A. Shirk (2011), “Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis Through 2010” http://justiceinmexico.org/publications/justice-in-mexico-project

10. External Challenges: Crime and Insecurity 10

11. External Challenges: Crime and Insecurity 11

12. External Challenges: Crime and Insecurity Journalists killed 12 Source: Molzahn, Cory, Viridiana Ríos, and David A. Shirk (2012), “Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis Through 2011”, http://justiceinmexico.org/publications/justice-in-mexico-project Total of 111 incidents between 2000 and June 2011: 75 killed, 13 disappeared, and 23 violent attempts Source: FEADLE (PGR)

13. Overview I.Challenges to legal system 1)internal: institutional capacity 2)external: crime and insecurity II.Criminal Procedure Reform of 2008 III.Judicial Survey (Justiciabarómetro) IV.Attitudes V.Factors Helping and Hindering Reform VI.Pending Challenges 13

14. Criminal Procedure Reform Timing of Implementation (as of 3/2011) 14

15. Overview I.Challenges to legal system 1)internal: institutional capacity 2)external: crime and insecurity II.Criminal Procedure Reform of 2008 III.Judicial Survey (Justiciabarómetro) IV.Attitudes V.Factors Helping and Hindering Reform VI.Pending Challenges 15

16. New Data: Justiciabarómetro Surveys Surveys of criminal justice system professionals (1) 2009/2010: police in Guadalajara, Ciudad Juarez (2) 2010: judges, prosecutors, and defense attorneys in 9 states 16 Source: Ingram, Matthew C., Octavio Rodriguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk (2011), “Justiciabarómetro: Survey of Judges, Prosecutors, and Public Defenders in Nine Mexican States.” Available at: http://justiceinmexico.org/publications/justice-in-mexico-project/

17. Justiciabarómetro states in 2010 survey of judges and lawyers 17

18. Justiciabarómetro 2010 Respondents by state and profession 18 State JudgeProsecutors Public DefendersTotal Baja California1263654 Coahuila1701532 Chihuahua2100 Jalisco3000 Michoacán3300 Nuevo León2012840 Oaxaca20 040 Yucatán5005 Zacatecas1300 Total1713859268

19. Justiciabarómetro Response Rates by State and Profession 19 StateProsecutorPublic DefenderJudge RN%RN%RN% Baja California610603611531.30122744.44 Coahuila0-- 154632.61172568.00 Chihuahua0-- 0[na] 218624.42 Jalisco0-- 0[na] 3013222.73 Michoacán0-- 0 333985.62 Nuevo León127615.7981166.90205437.04 Oaxaca20[na] 0-- 206132.79 Yucatán0-- 0 51241.67 Zacatecas0-- 0 134230.95

20. Justiciabarómetro 2010 20

21. Overview I.Challenges to legal system 1)internal: institutional capacity 2)external: crime and insecurity II.Criminal Procedure Reform of 2008 III.Judicial Survey (Justiciabarómetro) IV.Attitudes V.Factors Helping and Hindering Reform VI.Pending Challenges 21

22. Traditional system was “effective and efficient” 22

23. Confidence in prior system (that own rights would be respected, guilty be caught) 23

24. Like results of 2008 reform? 24

25. Other countries with reform have shown it works 25

26. Will new system reduce corruption? 26

27. Will new system reduce criminality? 27

28. Overview I.Challenges to legal system 1)internal: institutional capacity 2)external: crime and insecurity II.Criminal Procedure Reform of 2008 III.Judicial Survey (Justiciabarómetro) IV.Attitudes V.Factors Helping and Hindering Reform VI.Pending Challenges 28

29. Criminal Procedure Reform Timing of Implementation (as of 3/2011) 29

30. Factors Helping and Hindering Reform I.Helping – Implementation – Legal education – Leadership – Networking II.Hindering – Older generation of judges and magistrados – Poor coordination across institutions – Sensational attention to “errors” of the system Chihuahua; Durango – Resources – Electoral politics *** Time *** 30

31. Pending Challenges 1)Re-assert Civilian Policing Model part of long-term security and development strategy 2)Police Autonomy and Discretion long line of failed police reforms difficult to do if capacity is low and corruption is high 3)Intelligence Capacity at all levels perhaps most importantly at local levels 4)Real Preventive Mindset Consider: even if every part of the reform works well today, what keeps more people – mostly young men – from joining crime organizations tomorrow? Whose responsibility? 31

32. Thank you! 32