1. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Athens, 9 June 06 Elimination Units for Marine Oil Pollution Oil Pollution Risk in EU Waters: Analysis & Results Nikolaos P. Ventikos Lecturer, NTUA

2. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Target description Seeking answers to critical questions Maritime traffic regarding oil movement Priority areas according to EMSA Oil spill analysis for European waters Study of Environmental Data Risk Analysis in EU Waters Preliminary EU-MOP Application Profile Overview

3. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium To conduct a thorough statistical/risk analysis in order to evaluate the risk of oil spills in European waters and develop a preliminary operational envelop for the deployment and application of the EU-MOP solution Target Description

4. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Seeking Answers to Critical Questions  What sea conditions will the EU-MOP units face in European waters? What types of oil will the EU-MOPs be called upon to confront? During which seasons most of the accidents/spills happen and therefore the EU- MOP units are expected to operate? What are the typical sizes of oil spills that the EU-MOP units will be called upon to confront? Which are the high risk areas for oil spillage and therefore deployment of the EU-MOP in EU waters?

5. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Major oil trade movements in 2003 (x10 6 tons) Source: BP, EMSA Maritime Oil Traffic Indicative tanker traffic and volume of oil transported in 2001 Source: EMSA

6. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Oil Industry in Europe: Ashore & Offshore Major maritime traffic routes, major ports & major offshore installations in EU waters

7. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Priority areas for additional response capacity Source: EMSA Priority Areas for Additional Response

8. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Oil Spill Trends in EU Waters Oil spilled in Europe from 1990 to 2004 (spills > 7 tons) Source: ITOPF

9. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Oil Spill Analysis for EU Waters  Mediterranean Sea Baltic Sea North Sea Kiel Canal English Channel British Islands European Atlantic (France, Spain and Portugal)

10. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Oil Spill Analysis (Mediterranean Sea) Spills in the Med. Sea according to Size (1990-2003) Source of Raw Data: REMPEC

11. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Oil Spill Analysis (Baltic Sea) Spills in the Baltic Sea according to Size (1990-2002) Source of Raw Data: HELCOM/MARIS

12. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Oil Spill Analysis (British Islands) Fluctuation of number of spills per annum (1990-2003)

13. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Study of Environmental Data Density Function of Hs (English Channel) Source : NTUA Polar Histogram (%) of Mean Wave Direction, θ (English Channel) Source : NTUA

14. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Study of Environmental Data Distribution of wave direction for the coasts of Portugal and Galicia (Spain)

15. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Risk Parameters (ordinal/ranking approach) Level of Past Spill Incidents Level of Tanker Traffic Basic Traffic Hazards Tanker Route Diverges or Merges with Traffic Flow Geographical Hazards of the Area of Interest Major Port Activities Major Refinery Activities Navigation Hazards Sea State Characteristics Particularly Sensitive Areas Level of Response Capacity Level of Financial and Environmental Impact Risk Analysis in EU Waters

16. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Assessment of risk ranking for selected areas in the Mediterranean Sea Risk Analysis in EU Waters

17. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Proposed Risk Areas in the EU Waters Mediterranean Sea The Aegean Sea The Southern Region of Sicily (Straits of Sicily) The North Adriatic Sea The Straits of Gibraltar Atlantic Front (European Atlantic) The Galician Coast NW of Spain The English Channel (e.g. its approaches) North Sea Off the Coasts of the Netherlands and Belgium The UKCS and the Area of Offshore Oil & Gas Inst., NE of the UK Baltic Sea The Kiel Canal & the Entrance to the Baltic Sea The Entrance to Gulf of Finland Risk Analysis in EU Waters

18. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Distribution of Risk Areas within EU waters Risk Analysis in EU Waters

19. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Operational & Environmental Envelop of the Med. Sea The expected wave height in the area of interest is highly unlikely to exceed the average value of 2 m Strong currents exist both in western and eastern Mediterranean Sea (e.g. Crete); units operating in these areas should have additional maneuverability Persistent oil types are responsible for most of the accidents and biggest portion of spilled quantities Most of the accidents with small spills (0-7 tons) involve oils with specific gravity between 0.85 and 0.95 while large spills (>700 tons) involve almost exclusively oils with specific gravity of more than 0.95 The probability of occurrence of an accident is the same for all seasons The spilled quantities are much lower during winter time Most of the oil spills in this region belong to the small (0-7 ton) and medium category (7-700 ton) while the spilled quantity originates from few large accidents (>700) and medium ones EU-MOP Preliminary Application Profile

20. © 2005 EU-MOP Consortium Operational & Environmental Envelop of the E.A. The average expected wave height during the entire year can be above 3 m with the exception of summer when it falls below 2 m Most of the accidents and spilled oil quantity involve types of oil with specific gravity more than 0.95 Most of the spills occur in autumn and summer EU-MOP Preliminary Application Profile