1. Biotic Consequences of Climate Change
Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Ecosystem
Raquibul Amin
Programme Coordinator
IUCN Bangladesh Country Office

2. PREDICTED IMPACTS ON SPECIES
Species ranges and phenologies (e.g. early flowering) will shift
Biotic communities will dissociate in space and time.
Those that are already critically endangered are likely to be driven to extinction
Migratory species may be at particular risk since they require separate breeding, wintering and migratory habitats
Frequency and intensity of pest attack will increase
Productivity of ecosystem will change

3. SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROGS
The habitat of Golden Toad in Costa Rica moved to higher altitude
Climate change seems to making frogs more vulnerable to fungal infection-
Two third of 110 species of colorful harlequin frogs in South and Ccentral America are affected

4. BUTTERFLY
Non-migratory butterflies in Northern Africa and Northern Europe shifted home range by 20 to 150 miles
PINON MOUSE
The mouse moved 1000 to 3000 ft higher elevation over past century in Southwestern US
QUIVER TREE
Started to die off in parts of their traditional range in Southern Africa

5. SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS
Species
range
Future
reserve
Former
reserve
Reserve
Range
limit
Potential
range limit
Former
range limit
After Peters (1992)
Current PAs will become unsuitable as reserves

6. SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS
Habitat fragmentation will hinder unassisted migration
Species will behave individualistically, it will not be possible to maintain biotic communities in their current state
Weedy species will migrate fastest and capture vacated territory
Native species can become invasive

7. Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes.
Climate
Time
Ecosystem state
Time
After US Geological Survey (2005)

8. However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abrupt ecosystem change.
Climate
Time
Ecosystem state
Time
After US Geological Survey (2005)

9. Gradual climatic change may also trigger unexpected
and abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response)
Climate
Time
Ecosystem state
Time
After US Geological Survey (2005)

10. Others drivers will compound the climate change impact:
ADDITIONAL DRIVERS
Others drivers will compound the climate change impact:
Invasive species
Land-use change
Overexploitation (socio-economic driver)
Pollution

11. What will happen in Bangladesh?

12. IPCC scenario for Bangladesh

14. Major impacts will be through
Rise in temperature, Increased and untimely rainfall
Sea level rise
Cyclones, Storm surges
Flood and Drought
Water logging
Salinity intrusion

18. Managing for the unexpected will entail, at least in part,
managing for ecosystem resistance and resilience
Resistance: ability to resist stresses.
Resilience: ability to recover from stresses.

19. INTERVENTIONS Restore ecosystems and rehabilitate endangered species
Develop national management plans for control and eradication of invasive alien species
Moratorium on clearing forest
Introduction of salt tolerant species
Long term strategy and planning for water management in essential
Long term monitoring and capacity building
Appropriate research is needed to determine and identify an acceptable substitute of plant species

20. Review of Policies and program
Integrate biodiversity conservation into the national development planning and processes

21. Promotion of synergies with other MEAs
Climate change is intrinsically linked to the well – being of ecosystems, in terms of livelihood securities, biodiversity, forestry
In the light of the uncertainties of climate change, it is crucial to promote synergies amongst the three Rio Conventions: UNFCCC, CBD and CCD

22. THANK YOU