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National Aeronautics and Space Administration High-definition Images Reveal Changes on Many Scales NASA radar reveals local surprises......and troubling.

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Presentation on theme: "National Aeronautics and Space Administration High-definition Images Reveal Changes on Many Scales NASA radar reveals local surprises......and troubling."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Aeronautics and Space Administration High-definition Images Reveal Changes on Many Scales NASA radar reveals local surprises......and troubling fault motions 60 km north Precise images are adding realism to crustal models and forecasts UAVSAR blanketing California danger zones with change-detection images 1

2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA Radar (UAVSAR) Imaging Quake Borderland and Beyond Early image samples from UAVSAR Project, Scott Hensley Oval indicates a region of triggered fault slip 2

3 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Quake Triggers Responses on Key Faults >Mw 2.0 Earthquakes (Apr-Dec 2010, orange dots) from the ANSS Worldwide Earthquake Catalog, Advanced National Seismic System Fault traces from Southern California Earthquake Center, Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF-2), Edward H. Field and coworkers. 3 Elsinore fault extends into Los Angeles San Jacinto fault reaches to San Bernardino Full-length ruptures must be considered: damaging earthquakes

4 National Aeronautics and Space Administration UAVSAR Images Slip 60 Km North of Earthquake Changes from 24 April 2009 to 13 April 2010 Chiefly due to earthquake in Baja (El Mayor-Cucapah) “Creases” resemble fault slip 4

5 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Imaged Slip Matches San Jacinto Fault Lines Left trace: Borrego Mountain Earthquake (1968, Mw 6.5); Right trace, top: Elmore Ranch Earthquake (1987, Mw 6.2); Right trace, bottom: Superstition Hills Earthquake (1987, Mw 6.6) Fresh slip on these faults verified in the field (Treiman) Signals stress transfer north into San Jacinto fault system; ripe for a damaging earthquake? Fault traces (red) from USGS Earthquake Hazards Program 5 Scale: 20 km

6 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Fault Precision Drives Hazard Simulations -- Virtual California Virtual California faults, John Rundle and coworkers (UC Davis) Part of NASA QuakeSim project, which develops earthquake simulations and resources. Computer simulation: A 100,000 year virtual history of earthquakes, movies Addresses important hazard questions: how likely is a San Jacinto fault full/partial rupture? Relies on real fault information over wide areas, as radar imaging provides. Produces scores of large Baja virtual earthquakes (at right): -- easy to find ones followed by damaging earthquakes to the north (3-30 years later). 6

7 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Regular UAVSAR Imaging Blankets California’s Danger Zones Flight plans cover major faults, including Elsinore, San Jacinto, San Andreas every six months detecting any changes. Earthquakes receive extra coverage Standing out instantly: quakes, creeping faults. Within a few years: the slow motions of major faults. 7

8 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Radar Imaging Enables Fresh Ways of Doing Earthquake Science Unprecedented complexity revealed in rupture pattern in Baja. Geologists enabled to rapidly map emerging fault networks. Satellites cover the globe, UAVSAR blankets California danger zones, LiDAR provides stunning detail. Coming: DESDynI mission. Is key to improving hazard forecasts, tracking slow fault motions. Images signs of stress transfer threatening cities to north. 8


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