1. German Economy from Crisis to Boom: A Model for Recovery? October 18 -21, 2010 Bangkok, Thailand Oliver Wieck Managing Director Department for International Trade and Development Economic Situation in Germany

2. 2  Germany is experiencing a remarkable rebound in 2010. GDP will see an estimated 3.5% growth rate.  World economy is still amidst an upswing, but growth dynamics have slightly lost momentum. Emerging economies are showing high growth rates. USA and Eurozone (excluding Germany) however, with somewhat muted growth rates and growth perspectives.  Germany is reaping benefits from positive global economic climate. Exports have soared significantly; but domestic demand as well is kicking in at a stronger pace. Stable labor market is fueling private consumption, capital goods spending is picking up.  Risks are still virulent, but have proved to be manageable. Structural problems among European countries remain major task to be addressed to avoid further frictions between member states.

3. 3 Export of (Industrial) Goods Driving force Germany‘s Growth  Germany represents just 1% of the world‘s population but accounts for 8 % of global export volume  Among „green technologies“ the share is even higher (16%)  German exports have doubled between 1999 and 2009  Foreign sales account for ¾ of DAX-30-Companies‘ turnover, for some German „Mittelstand“ companies the share is 90%  Almost 50% of German GDP is earned abroad  Export was responsible for Germany‘s high pre-crisis growth rates and has contributed to the reduction of unemployment

4. 4 German Exports Changes in exports with selected trading partners Jan-Jun 2010 as compared to Jan-Jun 2009 Source: Federal Statistical Office, German Central Bank

5. 5 Emerging Markets continue to grow

6. 6 Pre-crisis Level has not been reached yet

7. 7 Germany as a Model for Recovery?  As an export nation Germany was one of the countries hardest hit by the crisis  The crisis was used by companies to further enhance their own competitiveness  Policy-makers have taken the right steps: debt reduction before the crisis, during the crisis: short-time work, scrapping premiums, economic stimulus programmes  State support is now running out, consolidation is coming to the forefront  Companies are now benefiting from the worldwide upswing with innovative products, „green technology“, flexibility of SMEs  However: all the homework has not yet been done, additional challenges

8. 8 Challenge: Demographic Change World Population, billion inhabitantsPopulation Germany, million inhabitants Share in % Source: UN, IW Source: Federal Statistical Office North America Europe Latin America Africa Asia

9. 9  Strengthen Social Market Economy and principle of sustainability  Enhance Europe’s competitiveness  Bolster up capacity for innovation, enhance education  Stabilize financial markets, safeguard business funding  Stop protectionism, intensify free trade  Expand infrastructure, realize sustainable mobility  Unite growth, competitiveness and climate protection  Realize comprehensive energy-strategy  Make digital information society come true BDI – Proposal to boost Growth

10. Thank you!