1. TSUNAMI “El Peligro Olvidado” The Forgotten Danger ! The Forgotten Danger ! A Risk-to-Life Assessment: The Very High Caribbean Risk A Risk-to-Life Assessment: The Very High Caribbean Risk UNESCO IOC/ICG Caribbean Tsunamis San Juan, Puerto Rico, 11/29-30/06 Bill Proenza, Director National Hurricane Center National Weather Service Miami, FL

2. NWS Southern Region http://www.srh.noaa.gov Caribbean Overview “El Peligro Olvidado”, “The Forgotten Danger” “El Peligro Olvidado”, “The Forgotten Danger” …An appropriate Spanish characterization for a deadly phenomena with a disarming low frequency. …An appropriate Spanish characterization for a deadly phenomena with a disarming low frequency. Beaches are most vulnerable to loss of life. Just a 2- meter tsunami brings terribly high mortality near sea-level. Beaches are most vulnerable to loss of life. Just a 2- meter tsunami brings terribly high mortality near sea-level. The Caribbean’s lesson from the catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami: despite tsunami infrequency, large coastal populations & explosive tourism (attractive warm seas) results in a potential for enormous loss of life. The Caribbean’s lesson from the catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami: despite tsunami infrequency, large coastal populations & explosive tourism (attractive warm seas) results in a potential for enormous loss of life. A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center is the pillar of an effective warning system and helps motivate multi- national commitment to preparedness and response ! A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center is the pillar of an effective warning system and helps motivate multi- national commitment to preparedness and response !

3. NWS Southern Region http://www.srh.noaa.gov Assessing Risk *Risk to life = Hazard frequency x Exposure x Mortality rate Applied to tsunamis: Hazard: historical frequency (or probability) Exposure: people in harm’s way Mortality rate: expected death rate *Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

4. NWS Southern Region http://www.srh.noaa.gov Assessing Actual Risk ! We need to assess current vulnerability to determine actual risk. Thus we must add today’s population exposure to tsunami history and frequency to properly assess relative risks. *Probability of occurrence of hazard *Measures of vulnerability and exposure *Actual Risk assessment Better tsunami program decisions *Source: J. Nott (2006): Extreme Events – Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press. ^University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez

5. NWS Southern Region http://www.srh.noaa.gov Caribbean Tsunami Fatalities in the last 165 Years Date PlaceFatalities 1842 Haiti 300+ 1853 Venezuela 600+ 1867 Virgin Islands 23 1882 Panama 75+ 1906Jamaica 500 1918 Puerto Rico 140 1946 Dominican Republic(1) 1790 1946 Dominican Republic(2) 75 Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis, A 500-Year History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition) and Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120 3503TOTAL

6. NWS Southern Region http://www.srh.noaa.gov Volcanoes, tectonic boundaries & faults provide many tsunami sources in the Caribbean Caribbean Tsunamis Last major Western Atlantic basin tsunami event(s): August, 1946; lives lost: 1790 +75 = 1865* Last major Western Atlantic basin tsunami event(s): August, 1946; lives lost: 1790 +75 = 1865* Since then, population shifts to Caribbean coastal communities and “explosive” tourism has taken place (USA alone has millions of citizens vacationing annually). Since then, population shifts to Caribbean coastal communities and “explosive” tourism has taken place (USA alone has millions of citizens vacationing annually). Assessing risks based just on historical deaths, greatly understates today’s potential loss of life from Caribbean tsunamis. Assessing risks based just on historical deaths, greatly understates today’s potential loss of life from Caribbean tsunamis. Despite coastal populations at risk being so much less in the past, we know at least 3503 lives* were lost in the Caribbean Basin since 1842 (165 years). Despite coastal populations at risk being so much less in the past, we know at least 3503 lives* were lost in the Caribbean Basin since 1842 (165 years). *Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis, A 500-Year History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition)

7. NWS Southern Region http://www.srh.noaa.gov Tsunami deaths since 1842 in two key areas, the northeastern Pacific (Alaska, Hawaii, West Coast States) & the Caribbean Basin (includes Puerto Rico & US Virgin Islands). The Caribbean basin with only 1/5 the area has 6x more deaths ! 1842-2006: 579 deaths 1842-2006: 3503+ deaths

8. NWS Southern Region http://www.srh.noaa.gov Most Caribbean tsunamis come from short-fused nearby sources Earthquakes (many subduction areas/faults exist in the Caribbean) Earthquakes (many subduction areas/faults exist in the Caribbean) Landslides ( continental shelfs and trenches) Landslides ( continental shelfs and trenches) Submarine and Land Volcanoes Submarine and Land Volcanoes Tele-tsunamis (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755) Tele-tsunamis (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755)

9. Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + Tsunami Beach area population and annual tourism Est’d Freq. Beach Water Temp °F Est’d Daily Beach Atten- dance Impact with a 10% Loss of Life Prior Simple Risk Today’s Actual Risk to Life Caribbean Rgn Nations population 64,500K with 100,000K visits (*4) 2/100 yrs (*3) Warm (80+°F) (*1) 500K (*4) 50K per event or 100K per century HighVery High Alaska Population: 650K with 1,725K visits (*4) 4/100 yrs (*2) Frigid (45 °F or less) (*1) 5K (*4) ½ K per event or 2K per century High Caribbean beaches have a potential loss of life exposure 50 times greater per century. (K = a thousand e.g. 100K means 100,000 people)

10. Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + Tsunami Beach area, population and annual tourism Est’d Freq. Beach Water Temp °F Est’d Daily Beach Atten- dance Impact with only 10% Loss of Life Prior Simple Risk Today’s Actual Risk to Life Caribbean Rgn Nations population 64,500K with 100,000K visits (*4) 2/100 yrs (*3) Warm (80+°F) (*1) 500k (*4) 50K per event or 100K per century HighVery High State of Hawaii population 1,265K with 63,240K visits (*4) 4/100 yrs (*2) Warm (80°F) (*1) 100k (*4) 10K per event or 40K per century HighVery High Both have a “very high” potential loss of life exposure. (K = a thousand e.g. 40K means 40,000 people)

11. Today’s risk to beach life from a 2-meter + TeleTsunami Beach area & history glimpse Est’d Freq. Beach Water Temp °F Est’d Daily Beach Attend- ance Impact with only 10% Loss of Life Prior Simple Risk Today’s Actual Risk to Life Caribbean Region (last events: 1755 & 1761) (*3) 1/250 yrs (*3) Warm (80+°F) (*1) 500K (*4) 50K per event or 20K per century LowHigh 3 West Coast States (last event 1964) (*2) 1/100 yrs (*2) Cold (65°F) (*1) 100K (*4) 10K per century High Both have a “high” potential loss of life exposure per century. (K = a thousand e.g. 20K here means 20,000 people)

12. Other sources of data and footnotes. *1 – NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures. *2 - NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. *3 - Landers, Lockridge, Whiteside, O’Loughlin. *4 – Potential loss of life exposures values are estimates from the populations and tourism numbers from state government or tourism sources from Alaska, Hawaii etc. The Caribbean numbers are from tourism sources.

13. A Few Reminders…. Like the Indian Ocean, the year-round warm ocean temperatures of the Caribbean beaches are a significant attraction increasing the potential loss of life exposure of residents and tourists. Beaches with flat, low-lying topography maximize beach attendance while offering minimal opportunity to climb away from tsunami harm. Such flat topography is more prevalent in the Caribbean.

14. Some Sobering Thoughts The Indian Ocean and our Atlantic Basin have a lot in common besides warm waters and similar topography. NOAA Geophysical Data Center says our Caribbean Basin has had 8% of the world’s tsunami events and the Indian Ocean, 7%. Yet an Indian Ocean tsunami on 12/26/04 led to horrific loss of life...200 to 300 thousand deaths! In the past 165 years, the Caribbean basin with only 1/5 the area of our northeastern Pacific area, has had 6 times more tsunami deaths ! The Caribbean basin has numerous nearby tsunami-genic sources. A Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center is the pillar of an effective warning system and vital to further motivate multi-national commitment to preparedness and response. Anything less, could lead to unwarranted loss of life.

15. NWS Southern Region http://www.srh.noaa.gov Questions or Input? Bill Proenza, Director National Hurricane Center National Weather Service Miami, Florida Get this presentation at: http://www.hurricanes.gov