1. Valuing a company relative to another company
Relative Valuation
Valuing a company relative to another company

2. Relative vs. Fundamental Valuation
The DCF (WACC, FTE, APV) model of valuation is a fundamental method.
Value of firm (equity) is the PV of future cash flows.
Ignores the current level of the stock market (industry).
Appropriate for comparing investments across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc).
In the long run, fundamental is the correct way of value any asset.

3. Relative vs. Fundamental Valuation
Relative valuation is based on P/E ratios and a host of other “multiples”.
Extremely popular with the press, CNBS, Stock brokers
Used to value one stock against another.
Can not compare value across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc).
Can not answer the question is the “stock market over valued?”
Can answer the question, “I want to buy a tech stock, which one should I buy?”
Can answer the question, “Which one of these overpriced IPO’s is the best buy?”

4. Relative vs. Fundamental Valuation
You are investing for your retirement. You are planning to take a buy and hold strategy which involves picking some fairly priced stocks and holding them for several years. Which valuation approach should you use?
Relative or fundamental?

5. Relative vs. Fundamental Valuation
You are a short term investor. You trade several times a week on your E-trade account, and rarely hold a stock for more than a month. Which valuation technique should you use?
Relative or fundamental?

6. Relative Valuation
Prices can be standardized using a common variable such as earnings, cashflows, book value, or revenues.
Earnings Multiples
Price/Earning ratio (PE) and variants
Value/EBIT
Value/EBDITA
Value/Cashflow
Enterprise value/EBDITA
Book Multiples
Price/Book Value (of equity) PBV
Revenues
Price/Sales per Share (PS)
Enterprise Value/Sales per Share (EVS)
Industry Specific Variables (Price/kwh, Price per ton of steel, Price per click, Price per labor hour)

7. Multiples For example: house prices.
Relative valuation relies on the use of multiples and a little algebra.
For example: house prices.
House
Price
Sq ft
Price per sq ft A
$ 110,000
1,700 $ B
$ 120,000
1,725 $ C
$ 96,000
1,500 $ D
$ 99,000
1,550 $ E
$ 105,000
1,605 $
Average $65.51
What is the price of a 1,650 sq ft house?
Answer: 1650 × = $108,092

8. Multiples can be misleading
To use a multiple inelegantly you must:
Know what are the fundamentals that determine the multiple.
Know how changes in these fundamentals change the multiple.
Know what the distribution of the multiple looks like.
Ensure that both the denominator and numerator represent claims to the same group
- OK: P/E – Price  equityholders, EPS  equityholders
- Not OK: P/EBIT – Price equityholders, EBIT  All claimants
Ensure that firms are comparable.

9. Price Earnings Ratios PE – Market price per share / Earnings per share
There are a number of variants of the basic PE ratio in use. They are based on how the price and earnings are defined.
Price
- current price
- or average price for the year
Earnings
- most recent financial year
- trailing 12 months (Trailing PE)
- forecasted eps (Forward PE)

10. PE Ratio: Understanding the Fundamentals
To understand the fundamental start with the basic equity discounted cash flow model.
With the dividend discounted model
Dividing both sides by EPS

11. PE Ratio: Understanding the Fundamentals
Holding all else equal
higher growth firms will have a higher PE ratio than lower growth firms.
higher risk firms will have a lower PE ratio than low risk firms.
Firms with lower reinvestment needs will have a higher PE ratio than firms with higher reinvestment needs.
Of course, other things are difficult to hold equal since high growth firms, tend to have high risk and high reinvestment rates.

12. Graph PE ratio

13. Is low (high) PE cheap (expensive)?
A market strategist argues that stocks are over priced because the PE ratio today is too high relative to the average PE ratio across time. Do you agree?
Yes No
If you do not agree, what factor might explain the high PE ratio today?

14. A Question
You are reading an equity research report on Informix, and the analyst claims that the stock is undervalued because its PE ratio is 9.71 while the average of the sector PE ratio is Would you agree?
Yes No
Why or why not?

15. Example: Valuing a firm using P/E ratios
In an industry we identify 4 stocks which are similar to the stock we want to evaluate.
The average PE = ( )/4=19.25
Our firm has EPS of $2.10
P/2.25=19.25 P=19.25*2.25=$40.425
Note – do not include the stock to be valued in the average
Also do not include firm with negative P/E ratios
Stock A
PE=14
Stock B
PE=18
Stock C
PE=24
Stock D
PE=21

16. Value/Cashflow
PE ratios are for equityholders, while cash flow measures are the whole firm.
Cash flow is from continuing operations before capital expenditure.
FCF is uncommitted freely available cash flow after capital expenditure to maintain operations at the same economic level.
FCFF (cash flow from assets) is free cash flow to total firm
In the US in 1999, the mean value was 24.

17. Value/FCFF For a firm with a constant growth rate
Therefore, the value/FCFF is a function of the
The cost of capital
The expected growth rate

18. Example: Valuing using value/FCFF
Industry average is 20
Firm has FCFF of $2,500
Shares outstanding of 450
MV of debt = $30,000
Using Value/FCFF=20
 value = FCFF*20
 MV equity + MV debt = FCFF*20
 MV equity = FCFF*20 – MV debt
 Price = (FCFF*20-MV debt)/Shares
Price = ($2,500*20-$30,000)/450 = 44.44

19. Alternatives to FCFF : EBDITA and EBIT
Most analysts find FCFF to complex or messy to use in multiples. They use modified versions.
After tax operating income: EBIT (1-t)
Pre tax operating income or EBIT
EBDITA, which is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization.

20. Value/EBDITA multiple
The no-cash version
When cash and marketable securities are netted out of the value, none of the income from the cash or securities should be reflected in the denominator.
The no-cash version is often called “Enterprise Value”.

21. Enterprise Value
EV = market value of equity + market value of debt – cash and marketable securities
Many companies who have just conducted an IPOs have huge amount of cash – a “war chest”
EV excludes this cash from value of the firm
Cash +MV of non-cash assets = MV debt + MV equity
 MV of non-cash assets = MV debt + MV equity - Cash
For example: Nasdaq AWRE (did IPO in 1996)
Its 1996 cash was $31.1 million, Total assets = $40.1 million, Debt=0  EV=$9 million.
For young firms it is common to use EV instead of Value.

22. Reasons for increased use of Value/EBDITA
The multiple can be computed even for firms that are reporting net losses, since EBDITA are usually positive.
More appropriate than the PE ratio for high growth firms.
Allows for comparison across firms with different financial leverage.

23. Price to Book Value Ratio
The measure of market value of equity to book value of equity.

24. Price Book Value Ratio: Stable Growth Firm
Going back to dividend discount model,
Defining the return on equity (ROE)=EPS0/BV0 and realizing that div1=EPS0*payout ratio, the value of equity can be written as
If the return is based on expected earnings (next period)

25. Price Sales Ratio The ratio of market value of equity to the sales
Though the third most popular ration it has a fundamental problem.
- the ratio is internally inconsistent.

26. Price Sales Ratio Using the dividend discount model, we have
Dividing both sides by sales per share and remembering that
We get

27. Price Sales Ratio and Profit Margin
The key determinant of price-sales ratio is profit margin.
A decline in profit margin has a twofold effect
First, the reduction in profit margin reduces the price-sales ratio directly
Second, the lower profit margin can lead to lower growth and indirectly reduce price-sales ratio.
Expected growth rate = retention rate * ROE
 retention ratio *(Net profit/sales)*( sales/book value of equity)
 retention ratio * (profit margin) * (sales/ BV of equity)

28. Inconsistency in Price/Sales Ratio
Price is the value of equity
While sales accrue to the entire firm.
Enterprise to sales, however, is consistent.
To value a firm using EV/S
Compute the average EV/S for comparable firms
EV of subject firm = average EV/S time subject’s firm projected sales
Market value = EV – market debt value + cash

29. Choosing between the Multiples
There are dozen of multiples
There are three choices
Use a simple average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples
Use a weighted average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples (one ratio may be more important than another)
Choose one of the multiples and base your valuation based on that multiple (usually the best way as you provide some insights why that multiple is important – remember car industry video segment)