1. Poverty Measurement in Tajikistan
Statistics Agency under the President of Tajikistan

2. Poverty Measurement in Tajikistan: Background
There was some documentation on the methodology which was prepared together with the World Bank during the Living Standards Survey in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2009 and was published in reports.
Food poverty line was defined as a cost to purchase food for intake of 2,250 calories per day per capita
Changes in the poverty headcount at $2.15 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) – absolute poverty line in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2009 (%)

3. Changes in the absolute poverty line based on LSS in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2009

4. BACKGROUND
Household Budget Surveys (HBSs) are conducted in Tajikistan from Sample size was 1,250 households.
Starting from 1992, due to complicated political, economic and financial situation in the country, the HBS sample size was halved (600 households).
Starting from 2000, as the political and economic situation in the country improved and there was a stronger demand for HBS data, the sample size was increased up to 925 households.
Government Resolution No. 497 dd. 1 October 2008 increased the number of surveyed households up to 3,000 (1,150 households in urban areas and 1,850 households in rural areas).
Starting from 2009, HBSs are conducted in all 5 regions of the country. Surveyed households by regions:
Dushanbe – 400 h/h
Sughd – 860 h/h
Khatlon – 900 h/h
Gorno-Badakhshan region (GBR) – 240 h/h
Regions of republican subordination (RRS) h/h

5. Purpose of HBS
Household budget statistics is one of areas of economic statistics addressing living standards of the population.
Budget surveys contain data on the role of specific sources in income, dependence of consumption on income and help to review changes in the consumption demand over time.
In addition to characterizing specific population subgroups, HBS data are widely used in various social and economic estimations:
for estimating gross domestic product and its distribution;
for calculating real population income;
for preparing a balance between agricultural production and consumption;
for calculating cost-of-living index (index of consumption prices for goods and services);
in the national accounts system where households indicators play an important role, etc.

6. Activities of the Statistics Agency together with the World Bank in 2012-2014
Trainings and study tours for Statistics Agency’s and MoED’s specialists on the collection and processing of household survey data (India, Switzerland, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan arranged by the World Bank);
New data entry program based on СSPro and trainings delivered for HBS specialists on the data entry and processing for all 5 regions;
Two trainings on poverty measurement based on SPSS programme for the Statistics Agency and MoED (April and June 2014)
Advice on estimating poverty levels and middle class
Methodological Guidelines on Poverty Measurement in Tajikistan
Trainings for HBS interviewers in all regions of the country and familiarization with a new questionnaire for an integrated household budget and labour force survey

7. National methodology
The development of the national methodology for poverty measurement was set to be a priority in the National Development Strategy up to 2015.
In , Tajikistan used Living Standards Survey (LSS).
Starting from 2009, for poverty estimates Tajikistan has been using economic growth and poverty elasticity for poverty forecasts. The limitations of this approach imply that over time poverty estimates generated by using this method would not be reliable.
Starting from the second half of 2012, HBSs are used for measuring poverty in the country and the resultant figures are not comparable with the figures generated prior to 2009.

8. New methodology
Household Budget Survey (HBS) will be used for poverty measurements under the new methodology
Prepared under the leadership of the Statistics Agency and in cooperation with the Ministry of Economic Development and the World Bank
Internationally recognized methodology

9. Purpose and actions Short-term solution (2012-2016)
New approach – immediate solution
Long-term solution (post 2016)
HBS Enhancement Project to support the development of integrated HB and LS survey
Supplement to a questionnaire
Changes in the sampling design methodology
Changes in the field survey procedures
will be a period of transition from the short-term to the long-term solution during which some changes will be introduced stepwise

10. Poverty Council: expectations
Attendance of technical meetings
Securing confidence as an active member of the Poverty Council
Sharing practice on similar financial and technical assistance received earlier, both domestically and abroad

11. Old vs. new method Advantages HBS is a national property
A sample size of 3,000 households provides more opportunities for measuring poverty (2009 LSS had a sample size of 1,500 households)
HBS is a continuous survey (households are visited 4 times a year), less subject to bias and enables taking into account seasonality

12. Old vs. new method Limitations Does not fully match LSS methodology
Outdated data entry system in HBS
HBS sample from the 2000 census
Questionnaire does not reflect all necessary aspects and needs of the new policies
Data collection and analysis processes can be improved
Data access and dissemination can be improved

13. Welfare aggregate Total household expenditures per capita Food basket
quantity
Adjusted food basket quantity
Food basket
cost
Food basket
prices
Spatial deflator
Calorie conversion factors
Food basket
unit prices
Selection (a priori) of a reference group
Deflated expenditure percentile (all households)
Calorie intake standard
Food basket
cost
Total poverty line
Poverty scope
Engel’s coefficient

14. Welfare Aggregate: Composition

15. Welfare Aggregate: Composition
Welfare aggregate can be expressed as a sum of two welfare sub-aggregates
THC = FHC + NFHC
where:
THC = total household consumption
FHC = food household consumption
NFHC = non-food household consumption

16. Poverty line – required calories
2,250 kCal/day is set to be the required average calorie intake per capita in Tajikistan
In Tajikistan households were selected in 3-36 welfare deciles
Median value of 1 calorie for the selected group of households is estimated to be somoni/kcal
Food poverty line = somoni/month

17. Poverty line (non-food)
Non-food component is calculated as follows:
First, identify those households whose total expenditures are close to the food poverty line
Second, calculate the ratio of food to total consumption (Engel’s coefficient)
Third, divide the food poverty line by Engel’s coefficient
Mean Engel’s coefficient for the selected households was 77.86%.
The sum of food and non-food component give a poverty line of somoni/month

18. Poverty Line

19. Welfare Aggregate: results
Groups
Somoni/month
% food
% non-food
Region
Dushanbe
233.89
60.4%
39.6%
Sughd
243.73
62.1%
37.9%
Khatlon
181.46
74.2%
25.8%
RRS
176.88
73.4%
26.6%
GBR
153.65
73.0%
27.0%
Location
Urban
223.77
63.5%
36.5%
Rural
187.95
71.3%
28.7%
Quintile
Q1 (the poorest)
90.24
78.7%
21.3% Q2
134.64
76.4%
23.6% Q3
174.13
74.1%
25.9% Q4
224.69
69.4%
30.6%
Q5 (the richest)
375.44
59.8%
40.2%
TOTAL
199.83
68.4%
31.6%

20. Poverty indicators, by regions

21. Poverty indicators: urban vs. rural

22. Poverty indicators, by regions

23. Long-Term Solution Action Plan
Q – Publication and dissemination of the national methodology
Q – Amendments to the poverty measurement methodology
Q – Data entry
Q – Sampling
Q – Questionnaire

24. Publications of results
Methodology Review
Questionnaire
Methods
Sample
Field activities
Data management
Publications of results
Multidimensional
To reduce the period for keeping a diary
To introduce recall method
Frequent visits
Based on the 2009 population census
Inspections Performance indicators
New data entry system
New automated output tables

25. Thank you!