1. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius Kirk Akaydin Week 3: Feb. 1 st, 2007 Project Manager Cost/Schedule/Risk Analysis This Week: Cost Scheduling

2. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius Assumptions for budgeting Project Aquarius –Development Cost 50% of total cost : spread evenly over 10 years directly preceding item launch –Launch Cost 30% of total cost : assessed year of first launch (based on Apollo analysis) –Refurbishment Cost 20% of total cost : assessed 5-12 yrs later –IMLEO: 9814 mt (~82 Ares V) –AMCM model (Larson 943-947)

3. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius Assumptions for mission budget –60%* of NASA’s budget allotted to Mars missions (*on average) –0.1% budget increase yearly (inflation adjusted) Our budget (FY2007) –Yearly: ~ $11 Bil. –35 yrs: ~ $420 Bil. Budget Plan –Budget buffer –Always <= 81% NASA Total budget –Always have enough funds

4. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius End of Presentation

5. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius Data obtained from NASA budget archives (ref. 8)

6. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius Budget plan

7. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius Risk Reliability Trade Study: Quantity vs. Quality Mass/unit500kg $/kg to Launch $ 10,000.00FY2007 Reliability/unit0.9980.960.880.790.72 Number12345 Reliability99.80%99.84%99.83%99.81%99.83% Cost/unit $16,666,666.67 $ 2,828,427.12 $ 969,170.04 $ 540,548.69 $ 396,102.88 Build Cost $16,666,666.67 $ 5,656,854.25 $ 2,907,510.12 $ 2,162,194.75 $ 1,980,514.41 Launch Cost $ 5,000,000.00 $10,000,000.00 $15,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00 $25,000,000.00 Total Cost $21,666,666.67 $15,656,854.25 $17,907,510.12 $22,162,194.75 $26,980,514.41 Normalized100.0%72.3%82.7%102.3%124.5%

8. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius Staging helps Staging hurts

9. AAE450 Senior Spacecraft Design Project Aquarius References 1.Boeing Company: Space Division. Studies of Improved Saturn V Vehicles and Intermediate Payload Vehicles. Jan 17, 2007 2.Gulick, Virginia et. al. “Mars Exploration Program Landing Sites”., Jan 22, 2007 3.Hartmann, William K. A Traveler’s Guide to Mars. Workman Publishing; New York, 2003 4.Larson, Wiley J and Pranke, Linda K. Human Spaceflight: Mission Analysis and Design. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.; New York, 2000 5.Longuski, James. Advice to Rocket Scientists: A Career Survival Guide for Scientists and Engineers. AIAA; Reston, Virginia, 2004 6.Smith, Arthur. “The Case For Space Based Solar Power Development”. Jan 17, 2007 7.Viotti, Michelle et. al. “Mars Exploration Program”,, Jan 22, 2007 8.Wilson, Jim. “[NASA] Previous Years Budgets”,, Jan 30, 2007 9.Zubrin, Robert and Wgner, Richard. The Case For Mars. Simon and Schuster Inc.; New York,1996