1. 1 3. Status of WRF Operational Implementations WRF Executive Oversight Board U.S. Naval Observatory, Washington, D.C. 28 April 2006

2. 2 AFWA WRF Implementation WRF ExOB 28 April 2006 Colonel John M. Lanicci Commander Distribution Authorized to U.S. Government Agencies and their Contractors only

3. 3 WRF Transition  Program Overview:  WRF will support higher resolution, improved accuracy, and more representative 4D M2M forecasts for command and control, mission planning/execution, and mission support systems  Improvements in mesoscale modeling will allow forecasters to focus greater attention on high-risk weather areas and high-risk aviation impact variables  Program Milestones and Schedule:  WRF 2.0.3.1Oct 2005Extended Operational Testing (EOT) begins  WRF 2.1.2Mar 2006AFWA implementation for EOT  AFWA IOCSummer 2006First operational use  AFWA FOCLate 2007Full Operational Capability

4. 4 WRF Transition EOT Status  AFWA currently running WRF in non-operational mode  Froze code and began operational testing in Oct 05  Testing two 5km and one 15km window in classified environment  Objective and subjective comparisons to MM5  Both real-time and seasonal test cases evaluated  Testing exposed some quality issues  Upgraded to v2.1.2 in Mar 06 and extended testing timeline  Discovered some lingering quality issues  Optimized v2.1.2 to address those issues  Re-initiated operational testing on 24 Apr

5. 5 WRF IOC Testing 27 Mar – 21 Apr Category Overall Average# of responsesHighLow Severe3.2 585.02.0 Icing3.4 94.02.0 Turbulence3.0 2 Winds3.5 254.02.0 Clouds2.9 354.02.0 Precip3.2 305.02.0 Temp3.2 194.02.0 SLP3.2 74.02.0 Visibility2.7 183.02.0 Scale 1= Much Worse 2 = Worse 3 = About the same 4 = Better 5 = Much better G G G G R G G G R Identified Strengths - WRF probability of detection of convection is higher. - WRF surface moisture convergence better defined where convection would occur. - WRF outperforms MM5 in terms of high level cloud forecast. - WRF outperforms MM5 in terms of surface winds and surface temperature. - WRF surface wind forecast along frontal boundary was better at the 6-hour point. Identified Weaknesses - False alarm rate on forecast convection is higher in terms of coverage and severity. - WRF has a tendency to forecast large areas of convection in mountainous terrain that never occur. - WRF over forecasts low to middle level cloud coverage. - MM5 outperforms WRF in terms of forecast visibility reduction associated with precipitation

6. 6 GO Index: Weighted skill scores of mission need parameters combined to form a single, integrated value. Generalized Operations (GO) Index 13 Oct - 31 Mar Weighting Scheme Persistence Better 00Z cycles06Z cycles 12Z cycles18Z cycles UNCLASSIFIED WRF MM5 WRF MM5

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8. 8 Joint Global Ensemble (JGE) 48/30 members, 1  1 , 7 day, 2 cycle/day  FNMOC Medium Range Ensemble 18 NOGAPS runs (T119, 1 cycle/day)  NCEP Medium Range Ensemble 15 GFS runs (T126, 4 cycles/day) Joint Mesoscale Ensemble (JME) 20 members, 15/5km, 60 hr, 2 cycles/day  JGE supports init./lat. boundary conditions  Ensemble Transform initial conditions  Multimodel (WRF-ARW, COAMPS)  Varied model physics configurations  Perturbed surface boundary conditions  Products: Tailored to support the warfighter planning processes × 48× 20 5 km Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS) GOAL: Prove the value, utility, and operational feasibility of EF to DoD operations. FOCUS: How to best exploit EF output within forecasting and decision processes.  Products: Tailored to operational wx sensitivities of the warfighter

9. 9 Notional Ensembling Roadmap JEFS and Beyond 1.AFWA/FNMOC Awarded HPCMPO Distributed Center Nov 03 ($4.2M) 2.AFWA Awarded PET-CWO On-Site ($200K/yr) 3.NRL Awarded mesoscale ensemble research ($1.6M) 4.DTRA Ensemble Investment at AFWA: initial (FY05: $35K ), annual ($150K/yr) 5.DTRA SBIR to develop reforecast dataset capability for calibration ($850K) 6.ARL SBIR ($350K) to develop Weather Risk Analysis and Portrayal (WRAP), and AFWA UFR ($100K) 7.NCAR & UW Contract, funded by AFWA Wx Fcst 3600 (FY05: $80K, FY06 $213K, FY07 $100K) JEFS Design 1 2 6. ARL SIBR Phase II JGE RDT&E JME RDT&E 3 3. Probabilistic Pred. of High Impact Wx 6. Phase I 2. Programming Environment and Training - Climate Weather Ocean On-Site Operational JGE CONUS Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) 1. HPCMPO DC H/W FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 7. NCAR & UW Contract 4. DTRA Investment H/W Refresh OCONUS EPS Windows 5. Phase I 5. DTRA SIBR Phase II JEFS End

10. 10 AFWA New Building $30M in FY06 President’s Budget 188,000 square foot building Includes 16,000 square foot computer room Flexible design accommodates transformational changes WFHQ, NOAA’s Operational Central Computer System Contract Awarded to Kiewit Building Group, Inc on 15 Feb 2006 Ground breaking ceremony 24 Mar 2006 with occupancy in 2008 Need to ratify Memorandum of Understanding between NOAA and AFWA - target June 2006

11. 11 NCEP Status of WRF Operational Implementation Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP WRF ExOB Meeting Washington, DC April 28, 2006 “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”

12. 12 2005 Implementations HIRESW – June 28, 2005 –Increase Resolution WRF-ARW Runs from 10km->5.8 km WRF-NMM Runs from 8km->5.1 km –Turn Off Calls to Convective Parameterization Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) –Addition of Six WRF Members – December 6, 2005 3 from ARW 3 from NMM –Fields Added for Testing in Support of AWIPS OB-7 –Extension from 63 to 87 hours – August 31, 2005 –Grids Added Over Alaska and Hawaii Preserves multi-model diversity

13. 13 GFS CFS GFDL SREF NAM - Eta NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion Air Quality 2006 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecas t GGSIGGSI WRF-NMM WRF-ARW L D A S Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW NAEFS EDASEDAS Rapid Update Cycle Ensemble Hurricane Global Climate Regional MOM3 HYCOM Ocean ETA RSM

14. 14 Upcoming Implementations Global Forecast System (GFS) – Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 – Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis, with AIRS & MODIS data – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 NAM – Replace Eta with WRF-NMM – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 – Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) – Availability of Level 2 Radar for WRF – 2 nd Qtr FY2006 Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 – RTMA is First Component of Analysis of Record (Hourly) – 5km Analysis in Support of NDFD Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) – Run 4 Cycles Daily – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 – Bias Correction for Precipitation – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 NAEFS – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 – Increase U.S. Membership from 10  14 Members – Bias Correction and Climate Anomaly Forecasts – Implement Ensemble Transform Method – Significant file system changes Streamlining data files currently on server http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes / Air Quality Forecast – Expanded domain to CONUS – 4 th Qtr FY2006 – Replace Eta with WRF-NMM -3 rd Qtr FY2006 RUC – 4 April 2006 (Tentative) – 13 km GRIB2 Grids available on NOAAPORT Marine Wave Model – 10 member Ensemble Wave model – 3 rd Qtr FY2006 – Great Lakes Wave model – 4 th Qtr FY2006

15. 15 Rapid Refresh GFS CFS Hurricane SREF WRF NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion WRF Model Suite of the Future (2007-2008) Forecas t GGSIGGSI RGSIRGSI WRF-NMM WRF-ARW L D A S Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW NAEFS HYCOM Ocean MOM3 WRF RSM? NAM- WRF Chem Air Quality

16. 16 Major Paradigm Shift Weather Research and Forecast Model Community model approach directed more at ensemble forecast system rather a 1-model deterministic approach Developmental Test Center (Boulder) –Outreach to academic community –Assessment of new model components

17. 17 Summary NCEP is –Undergoing a paradigm shift toward ensemble models in all forecast applications, based on community model approach Has major implications for the WRF program Increasing resources will be applied to the SREF –Implementing WRF-NMM to replace the ETA in O6 –Getting ready for 07 implementations

18. 18 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Begin move to new facility September ’07; complete by April ’08 Space for 40 visitors Groundbreaking occurred March 13, 2006

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