1. GENEVA JULY, 2015 The limits of cash transfer in addressing child labour

2. GDP per capita and child labour incidence rate (84 countries)

3. Percentage of all children aged 5-14 years in child labour by income (wealth) quintile

4. In Cambodia child labour was substantially higher in villages experiencing agriculture-related shocks such as drought, flood and crop failure. Figure. Percentage children’s involvement in employment, by exposure to and type of shock, (1999-2003) Shocks as determinants of child labour

5. The impact of cash transfer on child labour

6. Impact of conditional cash transfer on child labour

7. In general no program seems to have increased child labour Heterogeneity by gender, income In several cases we do not observe any impact on child labour The reduction in child labour is much smaller than the increase in school attendance (on average 0,3 points reduction for 1 point increase in school attendance)

8. Transfers are not only used for consumption, but also for investment in productive assets Enrolling a child in school implies a discrete reduction in the time available to children for other activities and also an increase in expenditures Both can generate an increase in child labour or reduce the impact of the program

10. Examples: CCT in the Philippines and Mexico Pantawid and Progresa (now Prospera) programs Results based on randomized evaluation at village/community level

11. Attends Attends primary school Attends secondary school Attends regularly Attends primary school regularly Attends secondary school regularly Days attended school past 2 weeks (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7) OLS with controls:0,053***0,0320,0180,092***0,064***0,0271,046*** (0,018)(0,022)(0,018)(0,023)(0,024)(0,019)(0,244) Tobit with controls: Marginal effect extensive0,014*** (0,005) Marginal effect intensive1,050*** (0,239) Additional information: Number of observations1.308 1.276 1.296 Observations in control group654 634 649 Observations in treatment group654 642 647 Mean in control group0,8820,6510,2310,7930,5790,2157,435 Mean in treatment group0,9220,6880,2310,8790,6510,2268,393 Conditional mean in control group8,631 Conditional mean in treatment group 9,141 Note. Estimates of program impact on self-reported education outcomes of children aged 10 to 14. Included controls are listed in section 3.1. Standard errors are clustered at the level of barangay. Conditional means are means conditional on any school days attended. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Pantawid Pamilyas program impact on education outcomes (children aged 10 to 14)

12. Program impact on the incidence of child work (children aged 10 to 14) Pay and location Types of occupations Any work Work for pay, outside own houshold Work for pay, inside own houshold Work without pay, outside own houshold Work without pay, inside own houshold Laborers and unskilled workers Farmers, forestry workers, and fishermenOther (1) (2)(3)(4)(5) (6)(7)(8) OLS with controls:0,045*0,048**-0,001-0,0020,0080,047*-0,0020,006 (0,027) (0,020)(0,010) (0,022) (0,025)(0,016)(0,006) Additional information: Number of observations1.223 1.224 1.223 Observations in control group604 605 604 Observations in treatment group619 Mean in control group0,2020,0910,0310,0400,0910,1440,0790,008 Mean in treatment group0,239 0,1360,0310,0290,1030,1840,0780,013 Note. Estimates of program impact on work by children aged 10 to 14 in the 12 months prior to the interview. Included controls are listed in section 3.1. Standard errors are clustered at the level of barangay. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

13. Program impact on combinations of work and school (children aged 10 to 14) Mutually exclusive combinations In school onlyIn work only In school and in work Neither in school nor in work Worked while school was in session (1)(2)(3)(4) (5) OLS with controls:-0,007-0,0140,059**-0,039***0,045** (0,029)(0,011)(0,026)(0,015) (0,021) Additional information: Number of observations1.223 Observations in control group604 Observations in treatment group619 Mean in control group0,7250,0380,1640,0730,094 Mean in treatment group0,7190,0270,2120,0420,136 Note. Estimates of program impact on mutually exclusive combinations of work in the 12 months prior to the interview and current school attendance for children aged 10 to 14. Here, school refers to current school attendance and work refers to any work in the past 12 months. Included controls are listed in section 3.1. Standard errors are clustered at the barangay level. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

14. Oportunidades program impact on education and work outcomes (children aged 10 to 14) EducationWork past week Mutually exclusive combinations Attends Attends regularly Any work Work for pay In school only In work only In school and in work Neither in school nor in work (1)(2) (3)(4) (5)(6)(7)(8) OLS with controls: 0,059***0,057***-0,007-0,011***0,052***-0,013***0,006-0,045*** (0,011)(0,012) (0,007)(0,004) (0,011)(0,004)(0,005)(0,009) Additional information: Number of observations10.82110.80510.88310.87510.771 Observations in control group, boys4.1424.1354.1774.1764.121 Observations in treatment group, boys6.6796.6706.7066.6996.650 Mean in control group, boys0,8410,8050,0490,0280,8280,0340,0140,124 Mean in treatment group, boys0,9000,863 0,0410,018 0,8810,0210,0190,079 Note. Estimates of Oportunidades program impact on education and work outcomes of children aged 10 to 14. Included controls are listed in Appendix 1. Standard errors are clustered at the level of localities. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

15. The program had no impact on productive activities of beneficiaries or non beneficiaries households No change in household composition

16. Estimated monthly cost of education and transfers in the Philippines and Mexico Philippines (2011) Mexico (1998) Monthly education expenditure (in 2011 US$) Monthly transfers according to program rules (in 2011 US$) Actual October 2011 transfers (in 2011 US$) Monthly education expenditure (in 1998 US$) Minimum monthly transfers according to program rules (in 1998 US$) Individual averages (children 10 to 14 in treatment group) Household OLS regression (children 6 to 14 in treatment group) Household OLS regression (children younger than 18) (2)(4)(3) (5)(6) Number of children in primary school8,576,935,72***3,03***7,66 (0,35)(0,01) Number of children in secondary school18,886,932,48***4,78***21,88 (0,78)(0,02) Constant11,5411,67***11,49 (0,60) Additional information: Number of observations 704 486 Note. Estimated monthly payments by households on education of children in primary and secondary school and estimated transfer receipts. Official exchange rates taken from the World Bank's online database. Additional information for Philippines transfer receipt estimates: sample restricted to eligible households in treatment villages. Additional information for Mexico estimates: sample restricted to households from rural areas in the bottom expenditure quartile that do not have individuals attending other school types, weighted to be representative at the national level. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1