1. Review of the NCEP production Suite: Recent Changes and Plans
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
Waves Group
EMC/NCEP
Arun Chawla
Waves Team Lead
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC
WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE WEATHER AND OCEAN SERVICES BEGIN

2. NCEP Production Review 2014
Wind waves
Operational models running at NCEP
Multi-1 global model.
Multi-2 global hurricane model.
2 Great lakes NAM / NDFD
Ensemble Wave model
In Development
Nearshore Wave Prediction System
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

3. Global Wave model (Multi-1)
All grids upgraded to ETOPO1 bathymetry
Mask files updated to enhance coverage in regional 10 arc minute grids
No physics changes but some differences in results close to coast due to changes in bathymetry
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

4. NCEP Production Review 2014
Multi_1 (contd.)
Extended domains (black lines) in the regional grids
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

5. Upgrades to Multi-1 (next year)
Physics package Upgrade : More wave energy in previous regions of negative bias
Extend grid domain to the North Pole by replacing regular Arctic grid with a curvilinear Arctic grid
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

6. Hurricane Wave model (Multi_2)
Hurricane wave model upgraded to new physics package (already in global, great lakes and ensemble wave models)
Includes new packages for wave growth dissipation (due to wave breaking) and swell dissipation
Hurricane winds now provided by the HWRF models
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

7. NCEP Production Review 2014
Multi_2 (contd.)
Impact
Better representation of wave height at peak storm
Faster response to Hurricanes (for both growth and dissipation)
Better spectral representation, and consequently better representation of storm wave arrival times
A 10% error in peak period ~ 35 min error for a 15 s wave travelling 500 km
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

8. NCEP Production Review 2014
Multi_2 (contd.)
Retrospective Forecasts (Hurricane Sandy)
Black – New model
Cyan – Ops
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

9. Frequency Spectra at buoy 41048
Multi_2 (contd.)
More accurate representation of peak frequency leading to better estimates of storm arrival times
S/Sp
f/fp
Sp, fp – Maximum spectral peak and location of spectral peak from data
Frequency Spectra at buoy 41048
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

10. NCEP Production Review 2014
Global Ensembles
Upgraded physics package
New physics package now same in all wave modeling systems
Increased spatial grid resolution from 1o x 1o to 0.5ox0.5o
Changes to Initialization / cycling
More in line with the GEFS (for future coupling)
Has an impact on spread and accuracy
Conserves swell perturbations
Provides 80 members over a 24 Hr cycle
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

11. NCEP Production Review 2014
Ensembles (contd.)
Validation over a 2.5 month period
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

12. NCEP Production Review 2014
Ensembles (contd.)
Retrospective runs during Hurricane Sandy
Tp (s)
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

13. NCEP Production Review 2014
Great Lakes Models
Updated the grids
Higher resolution curvilinear grid
More accurate coastline
Higher resolution 2.5 Km NAM smartinit winds
New ice concentrations
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

14. NCEP Production Review 2014
New Grid
Great Lakes (contd.)
Resolution ~ 4 km
Resolution ~ 2.5 km
Effect of higher resolution grid
Strong westerlies
Oct 3rd 2014
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

15. Higher Resolution winds
Great Lakes (contd.)
Higher resolution winds
Current operations: 12km NAM
Upgrade: 2.5km from NAM 4km
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

16. NCEP Production Review 2014
Ice Concentrations
Great Lakes (contd.)
Intake of new ice concetrations
NAM ice mask (from NIC) is extremely conservative
Large areas where there should be waves are masked out
Solution:
NIC ice concentrations
Bob Grumbine’s conditional climatology (whenever NIC fails…)
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

17. Nearshore Wave Prediction System (Under Development)
Motivation
Current WW3 global grid mosaic
Desired nearshore application
Max. coastal resolution = 4 arc min (7.5 km)
Required nearshore resolution < 500 m
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

18. Nearshore Wave Prediction System at coastal forecast offices
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

19. NWPS Architecture 2 approaches
Local (Original development)
Run locally (at WFOs), routinely/on-demand, using SWAN or nearshore WWIII
Driven by forecaster-developed winds from GFE (AWIPS II), and external sources (e.g. WWIII, RTOFS/ESTOFS).
Requires computational resources at local WFOs
Remote (New development)
Run on NCEP resources
WFOs retain control on forcings / local features
Limited on demand capability
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

20. NWPS (contd.) FTP/LDM ADCIRC WWIII SWAN NWPS CAVE (D2D, GFE)
WWIII Boundary Conditions
Water levels/
Currents
RTOFS/ESTOFS/PSurge
Ext. winds,
GFS/ECMWF/TCM
Other Input
FTP/LDM
NWPS
ADCIRC
WWIII
SWAN
CAVE
(D2D, GFE)
FC Guidance Products
FC Winds
GRIB2
EDEX
(Data Server)
Additional wave output (NetCDF, HDF5, GRIB2)
NDFD (total field; partitions)
CAVE: Common AWIPS Visualization Environment
EDEX: Environmental Data Exchange
LDM: Local Data Manager
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

21. On-demand implementation on WCOSS New Architecture
Am. Samoa
Guam
NCEP/WCOSS
Puerto Rico
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

22. NWPS (contd.) (Staged on WCOSS) LDM via HQ SBN NWPS on WCOSS AWIPS2
WW3 Boundary Conditions; RTOFS Surface Currents;
ESTOFS/P-Surge Water levels
ADCIRC
WWIII
SWAN
(Staged on WCOSS)
FC guidance products
GFE winds; control files
AWIPS2
CAVE
(D2D, GFE)
SBN
LDM via HQ
GRIB2
EDEX
(Data Server)
CAVE: Common AWIPS Visualization Environment
EDEX: Environmental Data Exchange
LDM: Local Data Manager
NDFD (total field; partitions)
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

23. NWPS on-demand central computing
WCOSS
6 nodes reserved (96 compute cores)
Satellite network (ouput)
data
NCWCP
Regional HQ
GRID file
DOMAIN file
CONTROL file
Hurricane wave BCs
data
data
data
data
TAFB/OPC
WFO
WFO
WFO
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014

24. WCOSS implementation schedule
NWPS (contd.)
WCOSS implementation schedule
Jul 14
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 15
Feb
Mar 15
Apr
May
Jun
Finalize initial WCOSS development
Developer testing on WCOSS, incl. data upload, run triggering
Initial EE setup (NCO Support)
Code delivered to NCO
TIN issued; CCB approves parallel data feed; 30-day parallel testing at NCO
IT testing at NCO
Management Briefing & implementation
AWIPS2 build v14.4.1
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014