1. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO OMM WMO www.wmo.int Development of a Vision of WIGOS Space-based Component in 2040 WIGOS = WMO Integrated Global Observing System Dr Wenjian Zhang, Jérôme Lafeuille & Stephan Bojinski WMO Observing and Information Systems Department & WMO Space Programme NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

2. WMO OMM Background Current Vision of the Global Observing System (GOS) in 2025 needs updating & longer perspective (GOS is the observing pillar of World Weather Watch Programme of WMO) WMO Commission for Basic System in Sept. 2014 called for a Vision of WIGOS in 2040, being developed in 2015-2016 in order to guide upcoming plans Presentation References: –WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2019 –NASA Earth Science Vision 2030 – Dr. Kathryn Sullivan: AMS 2015 Annual Meeting Presidential Forum Keynote: Anticipating Meteorology in 2040 Anticipating Meteorology in 2040 2 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

3. Need an Integrated Global Observing System to meet all requirements in a cost – effective manner Sixteenth World Meteorological Congress (2011) decided to Implement WIGOS WIGOS = WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM The whole is more than the sum of the parts—Aristotle NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

4. WMO OMM Main drivers for updating the 2025 Vision Emerging user requirements not captured in the Vision-2025 –Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). Atmospheric composition, cryosphere, hydrology, space weather were hardly addressed Advances in technology –Sensor technology –Orbital concepts, including Small satellites, constellations –Data processing, infomation and assimilation technology –Data circulation scheme Changes in the providers’ community –More space faring nations –Need cost/benefit justification –Public/private initiatives 4 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

5. WMO OMM The grand challenges for WMO Members for the Vision of Met Services in 2040 Outlook of future in 2040 The planet will be warmer, leading to more extreme weather & climate events, The population will have increase from 7B to 9B (28% ) with growing settlements in costal regions & megacities. The water-food-energy nexus to society will loom as a major global challenge in 2040! Anticipation Met Services in 2040 5 Improved services for protection of life and property by accurate forecasts and early warnings for extreme weather & climate events for DRR; Need sustained and stronger global satellite observations to support monitoring and forecasting extreme weather, climate and water events. NMHSs will morph from the weather business into an environmental intelligence enterprise

6. WMO OMM The grand challenges for WMO Members for the Vision of Met Services in 2040 6 NMHSs will morph from the weather business into an environmental intelligence enterprise

7. WMO OMM User application needs recorded in existing «Statements of Guidance» WMO application areas have developed Statements of Guidance summarizing their priority needs for observations Most of these needs are captured in the Vision for 2025 and are being implemented, however: –GEO hyperspectral IR and MW remain an open issue –General need for higher resolution (spatial, spectrual, temporal, radiometric) than what is currently available/planned –Need for better coverage by GNSS Radio-Occultation –Some mission concepts still need to be demonstrated for transition to operational status 7 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

8. Observing capabilities (space & surface) Vision of WIGOS in the Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR) Requirements Long-term vision of WIGOS Members’ programmes (including space agencies) Implementation Plan for Evolution Recommendations Statements of guidance Statements of Guidance Critical review NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

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11. Example: Predictive goals – Weather (NASA Vision 2030) 11 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

12. Measurement Needs supporting weather Prediction (NASA Earth Science Vision 2030) 12 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

13. GEO Imagers Coverage (current -2040) GEO Hyper Spectral Sounder Coverage (current plan) Geostationary satellites are critical with better hurricane structure data (wind, temperature and moisture data) for improving monitoring and forecasting Biggest forecast challenge is rapid intensity change

14. Hurricane Forecast & Monitoring Challenges Global Polar-orbiting Satellites constellational is critical forecasts Slide: 14

15. WMO OMM WIGOS Vision in 2040 – Key consideration 1 Earth System Approach vs. Disciplinary Approach Current Disciplinary approach observations (operational atmospheric observations + R&D observations for other spheres, i.e. cryosphere, biosphere, solid Earth, rainfall, etc). In 2040 Sustained observations of the whole Earth system with both passive- and active-sensing techniques, such that the changes in any component system can be traced to measure the total impact NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

16. WMO OMM WIGOS Vision in 2040 – Key consideration 2 Quantitative Assessments of Observation Impacts Current Success limited to quantitative assessments of the value of observations in driving NWP models (medium range) The present disciplinary approach to Earth observations and modeling poorly assesses the feedbacks between diverse system components, thereby limiting the ability to make accurate predictions and guidance for obs developments In 2040 The observations from space will drive a robust seamless Earth system modeling and predictive capabilities It will allow for quantitative assessments of the value of each observation (including space and surface component), such that the global observing systems will be able to evolve toward an optimized suite. NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

17. WMO OMM WIGOS Vision in 2040 – Key consideration 3 Improving Measurement precision and long-term consistency Current Trade-off solution with spatial, spectral, temporal resolutions & radiometric precision. Great efforts for developing a calibrated data set long after the observations are taken (MSU, for example). Initial success of Global Space- based Inter-calibration System (GSICS) for major operational satellite sensors. In 2040 The strategic focus for improving measurement precision while also enhancing spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution. Plan for good calibration of multi-satellite measurements Full engagement of all space observations with GSICS as the foundation for long-term consistency data records NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

18. WMO OMM WIGOS Vision in 2040 - Key consideration 4 From Earth Observations to Earth Information System Current Reasonable balanced investment in space & ground segments in most missions Non-holistic investment approach for space, ground and application segments. Insufficient investment in new science/technologies from obs to info & app, thus the full benefits of the huge investment in the space not realized In 2040 Holistic space programme investment approach (including space, ground and application segments) ensuring turning satellite observations into value-added products, information and knowledge supporting many applications The full benefits of space observations are realized with broad and effective applications NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

19. WMO OMM WIGOS Vision in 2040 - Key consideration 5 Go beyond coordination to start International Planning Current Operational, R&D, and Transition programmes coordinated under WMO/CGMS & CEOS framework with general principles & required flexibility Governments dominate to ensure that «backbone» system provides essential data freely in a WMO-coordinated framework In 2040 International commitments by government-designated entities towards global planning, optimization & interoperability Public «backbone system» + commercial initiatives involving with opportunity to supplement New models lead to enhance participation of WMO Members in the space effort(e.g. CLS- ARGOS, or DMC-constellation) NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

20. WMO OMM Recent/emerging needs (from Statements of Guidance) Former «pathfinders» to be considered operational candidates –Low-frequency MW salinity/soil moisture –Doppler lidar for 3D wind & aerosol –HEO imagery for sea ice, polar winds and volcano watch –Gravity field for underground water storage Limb sounding for atmospheric composition Lidar altimetry for hydrology and cryosphere Sub-mm imagery for cloud phase Multi-angle/polarization radiometry for aerosol and radiation budget NIR spectrometry for surface pressure Solar wind at Lagrangian point L1 and heliospheric imagery at L5 20 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

21. WMO OMM Technology advances/ satellite systems More satellite providers, allowing more diverse orbits –HEO-GEO-MEO-LEO (inclined & sun-sync) and low altitude platforms –Backbone system: Geostationary ring + LEO satellites in 3-4 orbital planes (am/pm/early morning) augmented by satellites at various Equatorial Crossing Times for better time sampling, and inclined orbits. –Successful R&D missions add to backbone op. system (GPM, etc) –Other, more novel concepts: nanosatellites ready to serve as gap fillers for contingency –In-orbit measurement reference instruments/satellites, as standards for calibration, traceability, would leverage the value of the whole constellation of satellites 21 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

22. WMO OMM Need interaction with applications Difficulty to anticipate the user needs 25 years ahead Users unaware of potential future capabilities Space agencies need to better understand the user needs Direct interaction needed to stimulate a prospective view Dialogue is planned at a « WIGOS Space 2040 workshop » – Geneva, 18-20 November 2015 (important dialogue) – Leads or representatives of the major user communities and space agencies involved in the Vision development – A panel of representative users of WMO applications (NWP, NWC, GAW, GCW, Ocean, Hydrology..) – With invitation to all important & interested agencies 22 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015

23. The grand challenges for WMO Members for the Vision of Met Services in 2040 Outlook of future in 2040 The planet will be warmer, leading to more extreme weather & climate events, The population will have increase from 7B to 9B (28% ) with growing settlements in costal regions & megacities. The water-food-energy nexus to society will loom as a major global challenge in 2040! Anticipation Met Services in 2040 23 Improved services for protection of life and property by accurate forecasts and early warnings for extreme weather & climate events for DRR; Need sustained and stronger global satellite observations to support monitoring and forecasting extreme weather, climate and water events. NMHSs will morph from the weather business into an environmental intelligence enterprise

24. The minimum benefit from environmental Satellites to cost ratio is over 5 and the likely ratio exceeds 20 (EUMETSAT Report 2014) 24

25. Thank you for your attention! Your feedback is welcome wzhang@wmo.int jlafeuille@wmo.int www.wmo.int 25 NOAA Satellite Conference 2015