1. WHAT NOW? Democracy and U.S.-Latin American Relations

2. APPROACHING THE QUESTION The Taming of Democracy The Pink Tide: Making Democracy “Dangerous” Again Looking Ahead: Prospects for Consolidation

3. READINGS Smith, Democracy, Epilogue Smith, “Latin America: Exploring Unexpected Opportunities”

4. QUESTIONS What explains the spread of democracy in Latin America? What kind of democracy? What quality? What’s new about the current phase of democratic change? How does it compare to prior periods? What role (if any) for the United States?

5. Dimensions of Democracy, 1900-2000

7. INITIATION OF DEMOCRACY Era of oligarchic democracy (1900-1939) Elite-led experiments in democracy: –Top-down mobilization, esp. of middle classes –Competition among elites –Co-optation of potential opposition –Weak ideological dimension: focus on politics, not economics

8. DANGERS OF DEMOCRACY The Onset of Mass Politics, 1940-77: Popular mobilization Specters of revolution Grand policy schemes Strong states Targets of Threat Socioeconomic elite Middle classes Military United States

9. Making Democracy Safe, 1978-2000: Transitional pacts De-mobilization of labor and peasantry Fear of extremism Evaporation of political left Ideological vacuum Declining strength of state Thus: spread and duration of electoral democracy THE TAMING OF DEMOCRACY

10. DANGERS REVIVED? Democracy as Protest/The Pink Tide (1998- ): Leftist ideological orientation Concern with poverty, social justice Rebuilding state strength Resistance to Washington Consensus Condemnation of USA/Bush administration: Aspiration for “Bolivarian dream” Q: What good is a democracy that isn’t dangerous?

11. LOOKING AHEAD I Interim Developments: Presidential half-lives 43% “democrats,” 30.5% “ambivalent,” 26.5% “nondemocratic” Economic growth (≠ poverty reduction) 9/11 and its aftermath The Problem of Consolidation: Longevity? Of what? Deepening From illiberal to liberal democracy? Or not?

12. LOOKING AHEAD II The greater the frustration within the population, The greater the sympathy with anti-establishment movements, The more extensive the general participation in elections, The more clearly defined the partisan or ideological alternatives, and The more effective the role of representative institutions…

13. The more divisive will be debates over policy content in Latin America, The greater the likelihood of nationalistic and/or anti- establishment policies, The greater the resistance to demands from the United States, and The greater the probability of policy conflicts with Washington. Thus: the greater the degree of democracy in Latin America, the greater the degree of inter-American tension and disagreement.

14. CHALLENGING AMERICAN MYTHS The Cherished Assumption—freely elected leaders will support U.S. policy The Western Hemisphere idea—the new world is distinct from old, will forge common front in international arena Democracy rationale for “regime change”—free elections as protective shield The hegemonic presumption—the United States can dictate political life in Latin America

15. U.S. VISIONS FOR LATIN AMERICA Democratic—with tilt to right or center-right Prosperous—with commitment to free-market policies and ties to United States Unified—under U.S. leadership Peaceful—in view of unanimity Deferential—following U.S. lead in global arena

16. REALITY CHECK Democracy = broad ideological spectrum, from “left” to “right” Prosperity = mixed economies; rejection of Washington Consensus, FTAs, and FTAA Ideology = diversity rather than unity Outlooks = anti-U.S. attitudes strong and growing among large share of population Alliances = rejection of U.S. leadership and rules of the game

17. ROLES FOR THE UNITED STATES? Focus on politics—beyond the war on terror, beyond free trade; recognize exceptional nature of current opportunity Adopt long-term view of national interest Hands off! Do not intervene in elections or encourage overthrows of elected leaders As opportunities arise, bolster institutions and “deepening” of democracy in Latin America Re-examine The Cherished Assumption

18. The end.