1. John Waclawsky Ph. D. Services Architecture and Governance Motorola, Inc. From: Heavily Centralized Control Paradigms To: An Increasing Decentralized World via Internet and Web Technology Titan against Titan: What Technology will Win?

2. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 2 Agenda Commonality vs. Competition Some Innovation Chemistry Chemistry Migration Lessons Innovation Eco-systems Model and Area of Common Benefit Goals and Results Technology Comparisons Some Challenges …Always Something New! Lessons Learned

3. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 3 A Key Standards Perspective: Common mechanisms are good …for applications too? 1. 1.Some applications can leverage standards …billing etc. 2. 2.Belief: Common control into the application space will facilitate interoperability, easier application creation, more application utility and numerous new applications will emerge by extending commonality. This is a common perspective of IMS/SIP advocates   BUT: has IMS/SIP led to any new applications? “differentiation IS the game”.... Geoffrey Moore Competition and Commonality Standards vs. De facto ISO ETSI IETF 3GPP W3C

4. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 4 Applications drive technology usage, not the selection of some common protocol or standard. Competition and Commonality (continued) Standards vs. De facto Smell Test: Will competition stop? …a single solution /application / signaling / control / format / data protocol, or any other common way to serve customers in a non-competitive manner… de facto: Un-commonality is standard for applications Standards typically commoditize products tend to make products and services look more or less alike Standards may be giving competitors some control or even veto power Applications don't want to “talk” to each other for business reasons Innovators always look beyond standards for ways to lead

5. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 5 …a part of the Four Area Innovation Model Where is Innovation Thriving? …and what is driving it, …as if we didn’t know! Consider the extended OSI model as “semi-permeable membrane for innovation molecules”!

6. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 6 L1 - Physical L2 - Data Link L3 - Network L4 - Transport L5 - Session L6 - Presentation L7 - Applications The OSI Model Semi-permeable membrane Model extended because: Accelerating technology changes Disruptions and redefinition Relentless on-going innovation Business decisions are colored by: Politics/Ideology, Financial considerations Technology religion (driven aspects of a company’s or even an individual’s personality). L8 - Revenue and Profit L9 - Politics L10 - Technology Religion The upper three layers are mainly about competitive issues “extended”

7. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 7 Telco / Cable co TITAN s Internet Technology TITAN s Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition 1- System-Based 2 – Connectivity Innovation4 – Connectivity Innovation 3 – Component-Based L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5

8. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 8 } IM, eMail VoIP Ethernet IP TCP/UDP Web Network Management SIP-IETF RESULTS: Innovation Movement: Mostly “FROM” the Internet GSM/GPRS L1 - Physical L2 - Data Link L3 - Network L4 - Transport L5 - Session L6 - Presentation L7 - Applications L8 - Finance L9 - Politics L10 - Religion Restricted Competition Environment: Telco/Cableco Open Internet Environment OSI ISDN ATM, DSL DWDM, EDFA Layering X.25 SIP-3GPP ? SMS PARLAY Parlay-X } CAMEL/IN

9. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 9 Innovation Migration Lessons GSM/GPRS IM, eMail VoIP L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Ethernet IP TCP/UDP Web } OSI ISDN ATM, DSL DWDM, EDFA SMS Layering Network Management X.25 SIP-3GPP ? SIP-IETF Internet is willing to eat its own children as well as the children of others. It isn’t apparent that any telco/cableco’s innovations are eating any Internet children. WiMAX 1. 1.Telco/Cable co's physical connectivity 2. 2.Internet services 3. 3.Upper layers: highlight the Telco/Cable co struggle at services. 4. 4.Lower Layers: Telecom industry innovation has been centered on basic transmission technologies (e.g., DWDM, EDFA, DSL, GSM) 5. 5.Sometimes innovation stays within an eco-system and can be quite successful within it: SMS (what about IM), SIP (what about non-SIP) 6. 6.Things change over time. E-mail -> AOL -> Gmail LTE

10. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 10 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion 1- System-Based Networking Protocol Layers L5 Benefit by following Benefit by leading Benefit by following Internet Technology is becoming increasingly important to the restrictive competition environment by providing access to and interacting with the incredible number of web destinations Area of Common Benefit!

11. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 11 Early / Obvious Model Conclusions Everyone needs the bottom four layers of the OSI model The split is over how to exploit the top of the extended OSI model Incentive to follow successful lower layer standards and, as a result, allow network- connected products and services to enjoy access to the widest audience Create new standards to extend connectivity when new technologies emerge or provide ways to better leverage the internet, such as WiMAX “connectivity is its own reward” was often echoed by the early Internet participants, and is embodied in Metcalfe’s law

12. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 12 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 GOALS: Standardize communication, NOT application behavior or control of end users. Everyone to benefits from connectivity. RESULTS: Experimentation for new applications, services and technology exploded Innovation breeding ground spawning numerous high-market capitalization companies: Amazon, Google, eBay… Enormous wealth engine - February 6th 2006 SIP Forum[1] presentation that concluded “The Internet is responsible for the largest creation of shareholder value in the shortest time in history.” [1] http://www.sipforum.com/[1] GOALS: Standardizing communications including: Interoperability between applications in their respective vertical markets, End-user control Total control of application behavior. RESULTS: Meeting goals rooted in existing thinking about networking A highly-controlled, but much- reduced experimentation environment Depressed innovation activity From our innovation migration lessons, it is becoming more apparent the trend is that the Internet is taking over

13. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 13 Restricted Competition L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Open Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 Benefit by following Benefit by leading Benefit by following Area of Common Benefit The standardized lower levels have also helped solve the bootstrap problem for innovators. These layers facilitate the spread of new, unconventional products and services at the higher layers of the protocol stack. Via existing standardized lower networking layers, anyone can now download and install the software needed to use such new innovations driving concepts such as social networking. That's a key reason new innovations can reach critical mass so quickly. A recent example is SIP IMS BitTorrent XMPP Skype Gnutella Defacto Joost Will SIP cross-over? IMS possibilities? Moving this way?

14. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 14 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 System technologies about control: IMS Quality of Service (QoS) Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) RST Injection for TCP protocol Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) Digital Rights Management (DRM) Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers. Consider an evolution about relationships Mash-ups P2P Encryption People technology Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews Organizing content: Tags Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter Cloud computing (XMPP) Traffic Scattering Network coding Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system. Other related issues: 1. 1.Infrastructure costs! 2. 2.Privacy concerns! 3. 3.Missing services/functions? Mash-upsP2P

15. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 15 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 Application vs. No Application Is thinking about applications passé? Centralized: delivered and controlled by a server Distributed: Built on demand, distributed and controlled by the end user devices Is current core network controlled thinking about applications becoming obsolete? e.g. IMS and SIP technologies are designed around an application infrastructure supporting paradigm Mash-ups and P2P technologies

16. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 16 P2P (edge to edge) Anyone can offer a service to anyone else! Mainly Involves: Sharing of resources by direct exchange (NO man in the middle!), Ability to self organize (NO control from the middle!), Deal with intermittent connectivity (NO state maintained or master data base in the middle!), …of the peers, for the peers, by the peers

17. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 17 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 Control: of What? …and How? Centralized: IMS and SIP Distributed: P2P and IM We are moving from an early technology world where we had to talk to machines in their language to an emerging world where machines will talk to us in our language Will IM be the future control paradigm? If so? …should we run language parsers underneath?

18. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 18 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion Networking Protocol Layers L5 Another Example: Circuit Voice vs. VoIP What about Lawful Interception (LI)? Centralized: Circuit Switched network is easy   Data network: Session Border Controller (SBC)* as the point of convergence for VoIP packets. Implementing LI on SBC is the VoIP equivalent of wire tapping on a circuit switched network. *SBC is typically a VoIP session aware device that governs the manner in which VoIP calls are initiated, conducted and terminated in a network. Distributed: VoIP   IP provides numerous methods to ensure data security.   no standardized manner to distinguish voice packets   no telling which path the IP packet will take   what headers get added. Decentralization is effecting LI too! BTW: this is all true for any kind of traffic

19. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 19 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 System technologies about control: IMS Quality of Service (QoS) Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) RST Injection for TCP protocol Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) Digital Rights Management (DRM) Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers. Consider an evolution about relationships Mash-ups P2P Encryption People technology Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews Organizing content: Tags Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter Cloud computing (XMPP) Traffic Scattering Network coding Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system. Other related issues: 1. 1.Infrastructure costs 2. 2.Missing services/functions 3. 3.Privacy concerns Traffic Scattering

20. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 20 Cable TV Internet Digital Rabbit ears CDMA TV/Radio GSM/GPRS Satellite TV UWB WiMAX UMTS 802.20 Etc. NFC What could STB’s see? Bluetooth(R) 802.11a 802.11b/g GSM/GPRS CDMA IR RFID GPS UWB WiMAX UMTS 802.20 TV / Radio Etc. NFC The world is increasingly connected What could end-users see? Traffic scattering

21. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 21 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 System technologies about control: IMS Quality of Service (QoS) Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) RST Injection for TCP protocol Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) Digital Rights Management (DRM) Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers. Consider an evolution about relationships Mash-ups P2P Encryption People technology Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews Organizing content: Tags Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter Cloud computing (XMPP) Traffic Scattering Network coding Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system. Other related issues: 1. 1.Infrastructure costs 2. 2.Missing services/functions 3. 3.Privacy concerns Network Coding

22. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 22 Network Coding Network coding is a field of information theory and coding theory and is a method of attaining maximum information flow in a network The core notion of network coding is to allow and encourage mixing of data at intermediate network nodes. In contrast to traditional ways to operate a network that try to avoid collisions of data streams as much as possible A receiver sees these data packets and deduces from them the messages that were originally intended for the data sink. This is an elegant principle that implies a plethora of surprising results http://searchnetworking.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid7_gci1267914,00.htmlhttp://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=breaking-network-logjams&SID=mail Is current core network controlled thinking about packets becoming obsolete?

23. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 23 L1 L2 L3 L4 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Restricted CompetitionOpen Competition Finance Politics Religion System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Networking Protocol Layers L5 System technologies about control: IMS Quality of Service (QoS) Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) RST Injection for TCP protocol Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) Digital Rights Management (DRM) Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers. Consider an evolution about relationships Mash-ups P2P Encryption People technology Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews Organizing content: Tags Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter Cloud computing (XMPP) Traffic Scattering Network coding Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system. Other related issues: 1. 1.Infrastructure costs 2. 2.Missing services/functions 3. 3.Privacy concerns

24. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 24 QoS How can QoS work today and in the future? ….when you consider… Emerging future: overlay techniques (P2P), mash-ups, traffic scattering, network coding. Encryption or use packet-obfuscation Lowest prioritization for all encrypted traffic? – Privacy is systematically discriminated against. Most of the time the SERVERS ARE SLOW and NOT the network. Low Utilization is a fundamental part of network design Redundancy for reliability. Capacity for peak loads. What does it mean to run a link/box at 10%? Race with Moore's Law Link queue can empty faster than you can run instructions to make QoS decisions. QoS adds complexity Fiber capacity shifts bottlenecks from pipes to nodes and because of the enormous fiber speeds available, adding node queues to the mix of things that need to be QoS configured and managed doesn't appear to simplify the QoS challenges. Where is the ROI? etc. QoS is NOT an adequate substitute for capacity and potentially makes a bad situation much worse

25. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 25 At the Heart of the thing known as “The Internet” It’s an environment that fosters experimentation Clearly "the place" for innovation of communication services Seems to be about the absence of impediments The lack of impediments seen in one eco-system and not the other appears to be making a huge difference in where innovation (and the associated wealth it generates) will be most successful. More experimentation then more luck! More $$$! A major part of innovation is what we can call unexpected usage (or luck). However, the luck seems to be on the Internet side these days. Application-independent, TCP/IP or UDP are the backbones of the end-to-end nature of the Internet. If history is any guide, a betting man would probably look for the next large market cap company to be about services and come from the Internet eco-system.

26. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 26 A Major Challenge for the Restricted eco-system Technology…. How can any technology which relies on extensive core network control and takes an application focus and consider packet information invariant, adapt to overlay techniques found in P2P networks, traffic scattering, network coding, the increasing use of encryption, the emergence of cloud computing, as well as trends related to dynamically composed and instantiated concoctions (formally known as applications) at the edge of the network? The web is becoming “THE” programming development platform. Now, many view the web as the ultimate programming platform that helps all of humankind

27. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 27 Lessons Learned Early, half-baked is rewarded better  striving for perfect is the enemy of good, and doing so is very time consuming, very expensive, and easily by-passed Everyone wants to differentiate their products People always dream of reaching de facto nirvana Lock in your customers  mine your customer set with derivative products and advertising; Politics (or group affiliation) overrides many choices Economic incentives to succeed in the market are the major goals tied to differentiation strategies Technology religion (personality preferences) will override the benefits of standards to product developers and people running companies focused on success.

28. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 28 Conclusions Which Titan is winning?? Restricted vs. Open – this debate is still being waged on the technology battlefield …The Internet eco-system has spawned great wealth, a massive number of jobs and even helped governments to grow tax revenues across the planet. Understanding competition dynamics on innovation is critical for any company trying to anticipate where the technology is going, instead of chasing it

29. MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007. Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan 29 Advice ….Some Thoughts It is about winning….. You should ask for: …the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, …..(and most importantly)… …the wisdom to know the difference!