1. Red Deer River near Drumheller – June 2005 Alberta Environment’s Alberta Environment’s River Forecast Centre Presentation to the Alberta Broadcasters Public Alerting Recognition Symposium Red Deer, Alberta January 14, 2008 Scott Vatcher, P.Eng. Forecaster, Flow Forecasting

2. What River Forecasting Does 1. Real-time monitoring and reporting 2. Water Management 3. Infrastructure Management 4. Water Supply Forecasting 5. Flood Forecasting

3. 1. What do we monitor and report? Real-time data Stream levels and flowsStream levels and flows Lake and reservoir levelsLake and reservoir levels PrecipitationPrecipitation SnowpackSnowpack Temperature, wind, humidityTemperature, wind, humidity Water qualityWater quality

4. Real-time Hydrometric Stations Over 350 currentlyOver 350 currently Stream, lake, reservoir levelsStream, lake, reservoir levels Satellite/phone linksSatellite/phone links

5. Real-time Meteorological Stations ~ 218 Federal and Provincial Hourly Data Precipitation Temperature Relative humidity Wind speed

6. Forestry Meteorological Stations ~ 190 stations Mostly in north Most report 2x-daily Some report 1x-daily

7. Snow Course Sites 71 Plains 46 Mountain

8. Snow Pillows 13 Mountain Sites (new site at South Esk) 2 Plains Area Sites USES Snow-on-ground Snow / Rain indicators Melt rates

9. Waterton Reservoir In-stream flow needsIn-stream flow needs  (Fish, water intakes, ferry crossings) Apportionment (sharing) agreementsApportionment (sharing) agreements  Prairie Provinces, U.S.  Natural Flows License requirementsLicense requirements Water QualityWater Quality QA/QC of real-time dataQA/QC of real-time data Provide information to support in real-time: 2. Water Management

10. 3. Infrastructure Management ~$5.2 Billion of provincial water infrastructure in Alberta ~$5.2 Billion of provincial water infrastructure in Alberta Develop flood operating procedures and provide operational advice to dam operators Develop flood operating procedures and provide operational advice to dam operators –Conduct annual flood drills for provincially owned reservoirs –Provide cross-check of operations during floods –Coordinate with Trans Alta Utilities Provide technical resources and secondary notification of potential dam emergencies – coordinated with Emergency Management Alberta Provide technical resources and secondary notification of potential dam emergencies – coordinated with Emergency Management Alberta Provide forecasts for Provide forecasts for –Floods –Water quality –Water supply –Reservoir Inflows –Natural flows Oldman River Dam

11. Photos by Wally Chinn 08-2001 09-2002 Current conditions reporting assesses snowpack, precipitation and soil moisture conditions and their impact for runoff potentialCurrent conditions reporting assesses snowpack, precipitation and soil moisture conditions and their impact for runoff potential Runoff forecasts and current conditions are updated monthly and published in the Water Supply Outlook for Alberta (20 forecast points)Runoff forecasts and current conditions are updated monthly and published in the Water Supply Outlook for Alberta (20 forecast points) Runoff forecast used by others to plan allotment of reservoir water supplies for irrigation, hydroelectric, and community & municipal purposes and reservoir operationsRunoff forecast used by others to plan allotment of reservoir water supplies for irrigation, hydroelectric, and community & municipal purposes and reservoir operations Chin Reservoir 4. Water Supply Forecasting

12. 5. Flood Forecasting Forecast floods and flows Forecast floods and flows –Issue Advisory and Warnings »High Streamflow Advisories »Flood Watches »Flood Warnings Assist Alberta Environment’s River Engineering in issuing advisories and warnings for ice and ice jams Assist Alberta Environment’s River Engineering in issuing advisories and warnings for ice and ice jams High River – June 2005

13. Why is Forecasting Necessary? Potential to reduce Flood Damage by Flood AvoidancePotential to reduce Flood Damage by Flood Avoidance 66 Communities Identified having a Flood Risk 66 Communities Identified having a Flood Risk 36 of 66 have forecast procedures developed 36 of 66 have forecast procedures developed Potential to reduce Flood Peaks using Reservoir Storage Potential to reduce Flood Peaks using Reservoir Storage 5 Major Government & 10 Major Private Reservoirs located upstream of populated centres with potential for flood attenuation5 Major Government & 10 Major Private Reservoirs located upstream of populated centres with potential for flood attenuation North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton – July 1986

14. Oldman River at Lethbridge – June 2005 Rapid Response Time of Mountain / Foothill StreamsRapid Response Time of Mountain / Foothill Streams Rapid Response “ FLASH FLOODS” in Southern Alberta and Swan HillsRapid Response “ FLASH FLOODS” in Southern Alberta and Swan Hills Response time much longer in Northern AlbertaResponse time much longer in Northern Alberta Why is Forecasting Necessary? Variety of Flood Conditions Snowmelt Plains - March - April Plains - March - April Only smaller streams affected (Paddle, Battle, Vermilion, etc) Only smaller streams affected (Paddle, Battle, Vermilion, etc) Ice jams Ice jams Mountains - May - July Mountains - May - July No flooding of major rivers by mountain snowmelt alone No flooding of major rivers by mountain snowmelt aloneRainfall Affects all rivers in AlbertaAffects all rivers in Alberta Flooding along major rivers is caused by heavy rainfall or heavy rainfall during mountain snowmeltFlooding along major rivers is caused by heavy rainfall or heavy rainfall during mountain snowmelt

15. Importance of Weather Forecasting Lead time prior to onset of storm Lead time prior to onset of storm –Quick response times of many rivers Identify major storm patterns Identify major storm patterns –Storms can cover large area of the Province Partnerships with Meteorological Service of Canada, and Alberta Sustainable Resource Development (Fire Weather), who provide weather forecasts Partnerships with Meteorological Service of Canada, and Alberta Sustainable Resource Development (Fire Weather), who provide weather forecasts Satellite and radar imagery used to track weather systems Satellite and radar imagery used to track weather systems

16. Department of Environment – Lead Agency Department of Environment – Lead Agency –Flow Forecasting »Issuing of flood related advisories and warnings »Provide information/forecasts about the floods »Coordinate all information from government and non- government agencies and provide value added information to all stakeholders, including the public »Coordinate reservoir operations to provide early warning and forecasts for communities –Water Operations »Operate the $5.2 billion of infrastructure in the province Disaster Services Act Disaster Services Act –Municipalities are tasked with the due care and safety of their citizens – response on the ground »When overwhelmed in an emergency, provincial help is available through Emergency Management Alberta Provincial Responsibilities for Floods

17. River Forecasting Weather Info: MSCASRD Emergency Management Alberta Field Staff: Water Survey of Canada/AENV AENV Water Operations Other Government and non-govt Agencies Municipalities and other responders (RCMP) Data Management and Systems Media AENVCommunications Public Saskatchewan Watershed Authority

18. Alerts If a storm is forecast to cause major changes in streamflow, we can issue up to 3 levels of alerts: High Streamflow Advisory Flood Watch Paddle River - 2001 Flood Warning Red Deer River at Drumheller – June 2005 A High Streamflow Advisory means that stream levels are rising or expected to rise rapidly and no major flooding is expected. Minor flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Anyone situated close to the streams affected (campers, fishermen, boaters, and the general public) is advised to be cautious of the rising levels. A Flood Watch means that stream levels are rising and will approach and may exceed bank full. Flooding of areas adjacent to these streams may occur. Anyone situated close to these streams is advised to take appropriate precautionary measures. A Flood Warning means that rising river levels will result in flooding of areas adjacent to the streams affected. Anyone situated close to the river should take appropriate measures to avoid flood damage.

19. Spring Runoff Advisory A Spring Runoff Advisory means that stream levels are rising or expected to rise due to snowmelt and no major flooding is expected. Minor flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Anyone situated close to the streams affected (property owners and the general public) is advised to be cautious of the rising levels. Medicine River - 1999

20. What When Where Why Next Update Contacts Definitions

21. Forecaster’sComments Impact: Gave Forecasters an opportunity to put out more information – restricted to one page on fax

22. North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton – June 2005 Communicating Flood Related Information FAXFAX Two FAX Broadcast Systems - can notify 400 clients in 30 minutesTwo FAX Broadcast Systems - can notify 400 clients in 30 minutes TELEPHONE TELEPHONE Automated notification system – operational since the 2004 seasonAutomated notification system – operational since the 2004 season RADIO AND TELEVISION Emergency Public Warning System INTERNET INTERNET http://www3.gov.ab.ca/env/water/ws/advisories/ http://www3.gov.ab.ca/env/water/ws/advisories/ Numerous data and information products (Forecaster’s Comments) availableNumerous data and information products (Forecaster’s Comments) available IVR (Interactive Telephone Response)

23. When They Are Notified Stage 1 - Anticipation Of Major Storm Verify Weather ForecastsVerify Weather Forecasts Forecasting Staff - Allocate Manpower for Shift (7x24 – two 12 hour shifts required)Forecasting Staff - Allocate Manpower for Shift (7x24 – two 12 hour shifts required) Notify Dam OperatorsNotify Dam Operators Usually 12 - 48 Hours Prior to Start of StormUsually 12 - 48 Hours Prior to Start of Storm Information in Forecaster’s CommentsInformation in Forecaster’s Comments Stage 3 - Flood Emergency Quantitative Forecasts (Time and Stage of peak)Quantitative Forecasts (Time and Stage of peak) Alert as in Stage 2Alert as in Stage 2 Stage 2 - Heavy Rainfall Warning Issued or High Streamflow Situation Assess Situation Identify Problem AreasAssess Situation Identify Problem Areas Notify Other Water ManagersNotify Other Water Managers Qualitative ForecastsQualitative Forecasts Update Dam Operators, Water ManagersUpdate Dam Operators, Water Managers Alert Local Authorities, Media (Advisory)Alert Local Authorities, Media (Advisory)

24. Questions? Sundre – June 2005

25. June 2005 Flood Events Bearberry Creek at Sundre – June 2005

26. June 2005 Flood Events In June 2005, three major flood events occurred in a short period of time In June 2005, three major flood events occurred in a short period of time The flood event covered a large geographic area The flood event covered a large geographic area In many areas, these events are the worst floods on record In many areas, these events are the worst floods on record Red Deer River upstream of Red Deer – June 2005

27. Chronology of Key Events – Red Deer Wednesday, June 15 1:30 pmCall to Dickson Dam to inform of potential rain event over the weekend 1:30 pmCall to Dickson Dam to inform of potential rain event over the weekend 3:30 pmDickson Dam begins to pre-release from reservoir 3:30 pmDickson Dam begins to pre-release from reservoir Thursday, June 16 9:10 amHigh Streamflow Advisory issued for downstream of Dickson Dam, including Red Deer and Drumheller 9:10 amHigh Streamflow Advisory issued for downstream of Dickson Dam, including Red Deer and Drumheller 9:40 am Calls to Red Deer, Drumheller and other local municipalities about possibility of large flows over the weekend 9:40 am Calls to Red Deer, Drumheller and other local municipalities about possibility of large flows over the weekend 1:00 pmEmergency Management Alberta notified of potential heavy rain event for the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basins 1:00 pmEmergency Management Alberta notified of potential heavy rain event for the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basins

28. Friday, June 17 9:45 amFlood Watch issued for streams and rivers upstream of Dickson Dam, including the mainstem of the Red Deer – also included Little Red Deer River ~12:00 pmPrecipitation begins in headwaters of Red Deer River basin Saturday, June 18 8:10 amFlood Warning issued for Red Deer River upstream of Dickson Dam (not including Sundre) and Little Red Deer River 8:10 amFlood Warning issued for Red Deer River upstream of Dickson Dam (not including Sundre) and Little Red Deer River 9:20 amFlood Warning issued for Sundre and for James and Raven Rivers – Broadcast on Emergency Public Warning System 9:20 amFlood Warning issued for Sundre and for James and Raven Rivers – Broadcast on Emergency Public Warning System 12:00 pmRed Deer, Drumheller and other local municipalities advised of major flood event to affect towns – preliminary forecasts given 12:00 pmRed Deer, Drumheller and other local municipalities advised of major flood event to affect towns – preliminary forecasts given 12:30 pmEMA advised of situation to affect Red Deer and Drumheller 12:30 pmEMA advised of situation to affect Red Deer and Drumheller 12:45 pmFlood Warning issued for Red Deer River downstream of Dickson Dam, including Red Deer and Drumheller 12:45 pmFlood Warning issued for Red Deer River downstream of Dickson Dam, including Red Deer and Drumheller 2:00 pmWater levels in Dickson Dam begin to rise 2:00 pmWater levels in Dickson Dam begin to rise ~2:30 pmRFC notified by WSC of measurement at Little Red Deer River near Water Valley of 568 m³/s ~2:30 pmRFC notified by WSC of measurement at Little Red Deer River near Water Valley of 568 m³/s Chronology of Key Events – Red Deer

29. Alberta June 2005 Floods by the numbers Number of storm events: 4 Number of storm events: 4 Number of flood events: 3 Number of flood events: 3 Number of times High River and Okotoks flooded in 22 days: 3 Number of times High River and Okotoks flooded in 22 days: 3 Number of years to the day from the last flood in High River to the first one this year: 10 Number of years to the day from the last flood in High River to the first one this year: 10 Number of stations recording flood of record: 21 Number of stations recording flood of record: 21 Number of communities declaring local states of emergency: 29 Number of communities declaring local states of emergency: 29 Highest flow recorded: 3,832 m 3 /s Highest flow recorded: 3,832 m 3 /s –South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat Number of provinces flooded as a result of second event: 3 Number of provinces flooded as a result of second event: 3 –Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba  Preliminary damage estimate: $700 million

30. Number of advisories issued by River Forecasting: 44 Number of advisories issued by River Forecasting: 44 Number of phone calls to/from River Forecasting: 2,566 Number of phone calls to/from River Forecasting: 2,566 Number of faxes sent by River Forecasting: 26,436 Number of faxes sent by River Forecasting: 26,436 Number of web hits to flood information: 774,310 Number of web hits to flood information: 774,310 –Previous High: 179,266 - June 2002 –Most web hits in one day: 98,310 - June 7, 2005 Number of gauge site visits by Water Survey of Canada and AENV field staff: 352 Number of gauge site visits by Water Survey of Canada and AENV field staff: 352 Number of gauge measurements conducted by WSC and AENV field staff in June: 204 Number of gauge measurements conducted by WSC and AENV field staff in June: 204 Number of days that River Forecasting was on 7x24: 22 Number of days that River Forecasting was on 7x24: 22 Number of overtime hours worked by River Forecasting, Data Management and System Support: 1,553 Number of overtime hours worked by River Forecasting, Data Management and System Support: 1,553 Number of times Emergency Public Warning System used by River Forecasting: 7 Number of times Emergency Public Warning System used by River Forecasting: 7 Alberta June 2005 Floods by the numbers