1. Making the Web equal Profit Surfing for Genetics Dorian Garrick & Mark Enns Department of Animal Sciences Colorado State University

2. Surfing for Genetics Surfing for Convenience Surfing to Support Decisions based on your own Customized Computations

3. Convenience Finding a Particular Bull/Breed/Breeder Sort Orders –Finding extreme bulls for some attribute Filters –Finding bulls with particular combinations of attributes Up-to-date EPD and ACC information

4. Customized Computations Interpretation of Threshold Traits Interactions between ERTs Assessment of Nutritional Implications Assessment of Financial Implications –Perhaps also Economic Implications Accounting for Risk Multibreed Evaluation & Crossbreeding

5. Interpretation of a Typical EPD W W D = 20 lb W W D = 50 lb

6. Interpretation of a Typical EPD W W D = 20 lb W W D = 50 lb Herd 1Average 500 lbAverage 530

7. Interpretation of a Typical EPD W W D = 20 lb W W D = 50 lb Herd 1Average 500 lbAverage 530 Herd 2Average 550 lbAverage 580

8. Interpretation of Threshold Traits Calving Ease EPD Stayability EDP Heifer Pregnancy EPD

9. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate Easy to get pregnant Difficult to get pregnant Average

10. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate Easy to get pregnant Difficult to get pregnant Average Suppose 20% heifers are open And 80% heifers are pregnant

11. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate 20% Heifers not in calf Pregnant Heifers Easy to get pregnant Difficult to get pregnant Average

12. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate 20% Truncn pt = 0.84  Heifers not in calf Pregnant Heifers Threshold

13. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate 0.38 20% Truncn pt = 0.84  Heifers not in calf Pregnant Heifers

14. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate 0.38 Phenotypic s.d. = 1.17 20% Truncn pt = 0.84  Truncn pt = 0.84 +0.38/1.17=1.165 12% Heifers not in calf Pregnant Heifers

15. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate 0.38 Phenotypic s.d. = 1.17 10% Truncn pt = 1.28  Truncn pt = 1.28 +0.38/1.17=1.605 5.5%

16. Sensitive to the Average An underlying EPD of 0.38 for heifer pregnancy would increase pregnancy rate –By 8.0% if average pregnancy rate is 80% –By 4.5% if the average is 90% Phenotypic “interpretation” of underlying threshold scores depends upon the mean Published values are at a mean of 50%

17. Solution Publish values that are hard to interpret OR Publish tables of EPDs relevant to different average levels of performance –Calving Ease: First Calf:75, 80, 85, 90, 95% Mixed Age:95, 99% –Stayability: 40, 45, 50, 55, 60% –Heifer Pregnancy: 75, 80, 85, 90, 95%

18. Solutions (cont) OR Use web-based decision support –User defined average levels of performance –Compute the number of pregnant vs open heifers number of easy vs difficult calvings Likely age structure of the herd –Number of replacement heifers required –Number of cull yearlings and mixed age cows

19. Suppose our goal is incr sale wt W W D = 20 lbW W D = 50 lb Base Base+30 lb

20. Interactions between ERTs WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) –gives +30 lb weanlings

21. Interactions between ERTs WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) –gives +30 lb weanlings –gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd

22. Interactions between ERTs WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) –gives +30 lb weanlings –gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb

23. Interactions between ERTs WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) –gives +30 lb weanlings –gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb Increasing HPG +12 will give another + 3lb

24. Interactions between ERTs WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) –gives +30 lb weanlings –gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb Increasing HPG +12 will give another + 3lb Increasing CED +11 will give another +1 lb

25. Interactions between ERTs Many ERT interact in a system context Total sale weight at weaning is altered by WWD, WWM, STAY, HPG, CED, CEM, ME (plus BW & YWT) The impact of any one EPD on the change in sale weight depends upon all the other EPDs and the average levels of performance

26. Assessment of Nutritional (& other input) Implications Feed requirements are influenced by the –Expected maintenance requirements –Expected requirements for gain –Deviation from our expectations (known as residual feed intake or RFI) Changing any of WWD, WWM, STAY, HPG, CED, CEM, ME, BW, YW will alter whole herd feed requirements

27. Assessment of Financial Implications Changes in profit can be calculated from change in income × prices change in expenses × costs –Straightforward (but tedious) arithmetic Prices & Costs can be obtained on a financial basis or an economic basis –What is the cost of feed in an extensive cow- calf grazing operation?

28. Economic Cost of Feed Feed “cost” can be calculated from its “opportunity” cost –Measure of what net income would be given up if you had less feed (and less cows) –Can be calculated from comparing the system profit of two herds of alternative genotypes with different stocking rates such that each consume the same amount of feed

29. Solutions Leave it to bull buyers to struggle thru facts & calculations OR put it all together via the web Website ert.agsci.colostate.eduert.agsci.colostate.edu

32. Current Philosophical Approach Current (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Performance) Like Merit Bulls Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs Base Situation Perturbed Situation X

35. Current Philosophical Approach Current (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Performance) Like Merit Bulls Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs Base Situation Perturbed Situation Current Cow Herd (EPD) Chosen Bulls Daughter (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Base mean Performance) X X

36. Current Philosophical Approach Current (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Performance) Like Merit Bulls Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs Base Situation Perturbed Situation Current Cow Herd (EPD) Chosen Bulls Daughter (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & base mean Performance) Like Merit Bulls Perturbed Cow-calf outputs & inputs X X X

38. Accounting for Risk Consider the following three bulls Bull#prog AccProfit Lima 300.5 to 0.6$908 Sierra 2400.7 to 0.8$729 Bravo37000.8 to 0.95$648

39. Accounting for Risk On average, true EPD is equally likely to be greater or lesser than published ACC allows us to quantify the extent to which the estimate may vary from true Considering just BW, WW, YW, Milk, ME and not (in this example) CED, CETM, HPG, ST we can compute many possible “realizations” of each bull

40. Extra Profit per 30 daughter-years $648 3700 progeny

41. Accounting for Risk $729 3700 progeny 240 progeny

42. Accounting for Risk $908 3700 progeny 240 progeny 30 progeny

43. Solution Publish an “expected change” table OR provide web options for quantifying risk (prototype available this Fall)

44. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding EPD BullWithin Breed Angus 1*+65 Angus 2+80 Simmental 3*+58 Simmental 4+68 *A1 & S3 are breed average EPDs

45. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding YWTEPD BullWithin BreedMultibreed # Angus 1*+65 Angus 2+80 Simmental 3*+58+80 Simmental 4+68+90 *A1 & S3 are breed average EPDs # Angus Base

46. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding YWTCow Breed MBEAngusSimmHeref Angus 1+65Base Angus 2+80+15 Simm 3+80 Simm 4+90

47. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding YWTCow Breed MBEAngusSimmHeref Angus 1+65Base Angus 2+80+15 Simm 3+80+h AS +15 Simm 4+90+h AS +25

48. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding YWTCow Breed MBEAngusSimmHeref Angus 1+65Base+h AS Angus 2+80+15+h AS +15 Simm 3+80+h AS +15 Simm 4+90+h AS +25

49. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding YWTCow Breed MBEAngusSimmHeref Angus 1+65Base+h AS Angus 2+80+15+h AS +15 Simm 3+80+h AS +15+15 Simm 4+90+h AS +25+25

50. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding YWTCow Breed MBEAngusSimmHeref Angus 1+65Base+h AS +h AH Angus 2+80+15+h AS +15+h AH +15 Simm 3+80+h AS +15+15 Simm 4+90+h AS +25+25

51. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding YWTCow Breed MBEAngusSimmHeref Angus 1+65Base+h AS +h AH Angus 2+80+15+h AS +15+h AH +15 Simm 3+80+h AS +15+15+h HS +15 Simm 4+90+h AS +25+25+h HS +25

52. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding YWTCow Breed MBEAngusSimmHeref Angus 1+65850 lb863873 Angus 2+80865878888 Simm 3+80878865878 Simm 4+90888875888

53. Solution Publish within-breed EPDs –Let users find breed adjustments & heterosis Publish multibreed EPDs –Let users deal with heterosis coefficients & heterosis Publish all EPDs on a multibreed base with heterosis factors included according to the breed of dam for every ERT Use web-based decision support

54. Summary To date, the major value of the web has been convenience In future, the web will provide an interface to knowledge (eg nutritional requirements and heterosis factors) and information that for customized calculations to support your decisions Better decision support will give better decisions (eg more profit)