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Shane Ruff Graduate Student Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wyoming.

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Presentation on theme: "Shane Ruff Graduate Student Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wyoming."— Presentation transcript:

1 Shane Ruff Graduate Student Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wyoming

2  400 cow/calf pair  280 yearlings  All calves are retained in operation  All 180 steers in yearling operation  100 heifers in yearling, 80 in cow/calf as replacements

3  Calves are received in yearling operation in fall, 550 lbs. for steers and 500 lbs. for heifers  Sold the following September at 977 lbs. for steers and 927 lbs. for heifers  Deeded land, BLM and Forest land are used for grazing

4  I assume in the ranch model that the cow/calf/yearling enterprise produces enough hay to feed all animals  As the enterprise transitions, and there are less cows, there is extra hay to sell  Pure stocker steer budget sells all hay

5  3 ranch models  Cow/Calf/Long-Yearling Enterprise ◦ Base model to transition from ◦ 400 cow/calf pair and 280 yearlings  Transition to: ◦ long-yearling enterprise  Nov. 1 to Sep.1 ◦ pure stocker steer enterprise (2 types)  May 1 to Sep. 1

6  Yearlings run Nov. 1 to Sep. 1  Cull 15% of the cows each year  Translate that 15% back into yearling operation (Total AU’s)  7 year transition period  Heifers in yearling operation are spayed  End with 841 yearlings  All hay for feeding is produced by enterprise

7  All cattle are sold up front  Revenue from cattle sales accounted for in year one of transition  Pure stocker steer operation  Purchased in spring, sold following fall (Sep)  Steers are purchased at 600/700lbs in spring  Sold at 846/946 lbs. in fall (Sep)  End with 919/833 stocker steers  All hay from hay enterprise is sold

8  All models are estimated out to 7 years  Culling 15% of cow/calf herd each year takes 7 years to fully transition  This way they can be compared accurately over the long-run

9  Historical calf prices and native hay prices ◦ Calf Prices ◦ Hay Prices simulation ◦ Simulates likelihood of these historical prices occurring ◦ Shows a range of expected profit

10  No ownership costs are factored in ◦ Paying yourself (owner labor) ◦ Depreciation ◦ Operating Loan (interest) ◦ Taxes  All enterprises include haying operation  No risk of contracting brucellosis in herd

11 Enterprise has low chance of losing money.

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13 Enterprise can expect to lose money 14% of the time

14 Enterprise has a low chance of losing money (3%). Wider range of profit and lower average compared to base herd (cow/calf/yearling)

15 Enterprise can expect to lose money roughly 5 out of every 10 years

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18 Potential for higher profits, also larger loses. Lower average than base. Enterprise loses money 22% of the time (2 out of 10 years). Producer has to plan for years where there is a loss.

19 Enterprise can expect to lose money roughly 7 out of every 10 years

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22 Higher profit potential, higher loss potential. Lower average than base herd.

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25  Stocker Steer enterprise has potential to earn larger profit but also larger loss  May have to survive one or more years of negative profit  Depends on risk attitude of producer ◦ How much risk are you willing to take?  High risk of brucellosis vs. low risk of brucellosis infection  Preliminary results have shown early years of transition are most profitable

26  Tax implications ◦ Raised breeding livestock  Taxed as ordinary income  Has potential to raise tax bracket ◦ Purchased livestock  Capital gains taxes apply

27  Tax implications of whole herd liquidation vs. culling 15% of herd each year  Completed Thesis  Excel document allowing producers to enter their own values in comparison to mine  Extension Bulletin

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