1. Technology Forecasting … and Patterns of Industrial Innovation PPA 730-1

2. Herman Kahn’s View z“…in policy research we are not only concerned with anticipating future events and attempting to make the desirable ones more likely and the undesirable less likely -- we are also trying to put policymakers in a position to deal with whatever future actually arises, to be able to alleviate the bad and exploit the good.”

3. Advantages of Forecasting zInternal & external influences z“timing is everything” zBusiness reorientation to modify corporate or R&D strategy zRefinements or redirection of operational decision making: investment vs. R&D vs. personnel recruitment

4. Technology Forecasting zRate of change in the environment zPlanning horizon for product or process zComplexity of the problems zThe R&D strategy zCompany size may dictate limitations or options for consideration

5. Tech Forecasting Techniques zExploratory: Extension of the past through the present and into the future zNormative: Starts from the future with a specific objective or condition to be realized

6. Forecasting Methods zTrend Extrapolation zPrecursor Trends - Curve Matching zTechnology Substitution zDelphi zScenarios zRelevance Trees zCross Impact Analyses

7. What R&D managers want to know from forecasting zPerformance levels likely to be reached absent new events/developments zIdentification of events/developments which could change the pattern zNatural or physical limits of a technology zLevel of investment/resources required to yield new performance levels

8. Technology Innovation Patterns zOrganization’s capacity depends on its stage of evolution zTech based enterprise vs. volume producer zProduct innovation from high tech unit can become process innovation for volume producers

9. Volume markets zMarkets well defined zProducts standardized zUnit profit margins are low and dependent on learning curve zCompetition based on price zProcess change is costly because production is standardized

10. In this environment, innovation is often incremental, but significant -- Are new products likely to emerge from this environment? -- Is it receptive to external developments?

11. New Markets zEntrepreneurial zProducts offer superior performance zNot generally cost driven zUsers play a major role zOriginated by flexible organization

12. In the new market environment, innovations are dramatic zHow receptive is this environment to external influence?

13. Patterns are Evolutionary zOnce products achieve acceptance, emphasis shifts to: - manufacturing - marketing - distribution zShift from radical to evolutionary - development of dominant design - heightened price competition - process innovations take over