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Growth ambitions in the CEE region Foto gebouw. 2 Reminder: KBC’s presence in CEE Update on economic and financial background KBC’s opportunities Update.

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Presentation on theme: "Growth ambitions in the CEE region Foto gebouw. 2 Reminder: KBC’s presence in CEE Update on economic and financial background KBC’s opportunities Update."— Presentation transcript:

1 Growth ambitions in the CEE region Foto gebouw

2 2 Reminder: KBC’s presence in CEE Update on economic and financial background KBC’s opportunities Update on Poland Financial outlook Agenda

3 3 Profit contribution, Slovenia Minority stake (34%) Market share, bank: 41% (No. 1) Market share, life: 6% (No. 5) 2610n/a 200420032002 Reminder: KBC’s presence in CEE Profit contribution, CZ + SL 200220032004 156 m144 m168 m Profit contribution, Poland 200220032004 -49 m-297 m40 m Total assets, bank: 5 bn EUR Market share, bank: 5% (No. 8) Market share, life: 2% (No. 7) Market share, non-life: 12% (No. 2) Profit contribution, Hungary 200220032004 16 m11 m35 m Total assets, bank: 7 bn EUR Market share, bank: 11% (No. 2) Market share, life: 3% (No. 7) Market share, non-life: 4% (No. 6) Czech Republic Total assets, bank: 18 bn EUR Market share, bank: 21% (No. 2) Market share, life: 8% (No. 5) Market share, non-life: 4% (No. 6) Slovakia Total assets, bank: 2 bn EUR Market share, bank: 6% (No. 4) Market share, life: 4% (No. 8) Market share, non-life: 2% (No. 7) CEE profit contribution to KBC Group 2004 2005 Q1 17% 27% Retail 57% Other 22% SME/Corp 21% Share of retail segment in gross income, CEE Banking

4 4 Reminder: KBC’s presence in CEE Update on economic and financial background KBC’s opportunities Update on Poland Financial outlook Agenda

5 5 Growth fundamentals maintained (Source: IMF) Financial services (banking & insurance) in % of GDP (2004)  2005/2006 growth prospects have recently been reviewed downwards due to global economic slowdown  But growth in CEE will still be at higher rate (+/-2%) than euro zone …but positive gap maintained GDP growth prospects adjusted… (Source: IMF) (Source: Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)

6 6 EU entry - catalyst for development Results of one-year EU membership   Adoption of EU-compatible regulation and legislation   EU-10 economic growth double of EU-25 (5% vs. 2%)   Exports to EU-15 rose spectacularly (market share from 2% in 1997 up to probably 4% in 2005)   FDIs in EU-10 continue (2004: 11 bn EUR or 3% of CEE-10’s GDP)   Agricultural subsidies / EU funds   Stimulation of macroeconomic stability   Strong financial integration with EU   Declining inflation (11.7% in 1998 down to 4.3% in 2004)   No budgetary deterioration  Decrease in unemployment, though rather slow EU accession acts as catalyst (Source: OECD) Limited impact on KBC of French and Dutch ‘NO’ to the treaty establishing a constitution for Europe  KBC is currently operating within EU countries only  Entry into euro is guaranteed by EU membership once economic criteria are met

7 7 UCI-HVB merger may transform landscape somewhat In the Polish market, the UniCredit-HVB combination will strengthen their already strong individual positions; the impact will be somewhat less in Slovakia and very limited in the other markets where KBC is active. The UniCredit-HVB merger should be seen as much an opportunity as a threat: In Poland, the merger efforts may temporarily weaken the commercial clout of the parties involved, enabling other parties to increase market share Potential for gaining new customers preferring to be ‘multi-banked’ rather than ‘uni-banked’ The merger could trigger the much-needed start of early consolidation in Poland In the short run, UniCredit-HVB may partly divest from some markets, creating investment opportunities for other players.

8 8 Reminder: KBC’s presence in CEE Update on economic and financial background KBC’s opportunities Update on Poland Financial outlook Agenda

9 9 KBC’s opportunities in CEE Unique bancassurance concept, enabling cross-selling Outstanding track record in the promising AM market Well positioned in the emerging markets of HNWI and private banking through the epb know-how Nationwide branch network in all countries Introduction of uniform corporate image Setting up of technology for centralization of processing Increasing hands-on management approach

10 10 Bancassurance to fuel earnings Major challenges to exporting the model to CEE: Re-organization of insurance network & implementation of new branch organization models Enhancement of pro-active sales approach in both bank branches and agents’ networks Streamlining of business processes and IT systems in both bank and insurance company Achievements: Transfers of product know-how and implementation of KBC’s distribution model Setting up of sales-incentive schemes Unified management responsibility (joint management committee of bank and insurance) Focus on: ‘Plugged-in’ non-life and life products Life investment insurance (savings & investment) Results are encouraging: realizations in 2004 Cross selling ratesCzech RepHungaryPolandSlovakiaBelgium Consumer loan X life assurance83%n/a100%94%67% Mortgage loan X life assurance45%50%100%75%67% Mortgage X property insurance54%71%42%30%50%

11 11 Key developments in AM Total AUM in CEE as at 31/03/2005: 5.5 bn AUM grew in 04 by 25%; in Q105 up by 7.3% Projected growth: 1-2 bn EUR p.a. Continued high growth of revenue: CAGR revenue on mutual funds: 15-20% CAGR revenue on pension funds: 11-14% Margins on mutual funds already aligned with rest of Europe Strong appetite for ‘risk-free’ investments: money-market and capital-guaranteed funds, KBC’s speciality Market share 20032004 31/03/200 5 Trend CZ19%22%23%++ HU8%9%10%++ SL6%7% ++ SI-8%9%+ PL4% 5%++ Discretionary Assets 34% Funds - Institutional 9% Funds - Other 5% Funds - Retail 42% Life Assurance 2% Pension Funds 8% Breakdown of AUM

12 12 Key developments in AM Market challenger with excellent reputation in foreign funds and as product innovator (hedge funds, capital-guaranteed funds, etc.) Adequate risk-control measures and state-of-the-art front-office systems developed over the past years Cost/AUM ratios well below European average (around 16 bp vs. 20 bp for Europe) Through the funds business, new clients are brought in and retained Existing clients using their deposits to buy funds will replenish their deposit accounts after one year Poland: big succes: capital-guaranteed funds 20% of clients in funds are new clients Czech Rep: Most important market player KBC-owned pension funds companies (10% market share, No. 3 in the market) Slovenia: Recently created AM company (mutual funds’ market share from 0 to 10% in < 1 year) Pension fund company with market share of 21% (first player on the market) Slovakia: Recently created AM and pension fund companies 7.4% market share in mutual funds Hungary: 3rd in mutual funds (10% market share)

13 13 Necessary pension reforms will lead to growth in pension funds Assets of insurance companies and pension funds Source: Eurostat (2003) Source: FI-AD Financial Advisory (2003) % of GDP Assets in pension funds 2002, % of GDP Share of elderly (65+) in total population (%) e.g., in Slovakia: recently begun 2nd pillar will provide growth rate of above 25% for CSOB Pension Fund Pension reform 1st Pillar (date of reform) 2nd Pillar (date of creation) 3rd Pillar (date of creation) Poland (1999) Czech Rep. (1994) Slovakia (2005) (1996) Hungary (1998) (1999) (1993) Slovenia (2000) (Source: Eurostat)

14 14 Centralized organization for AM Results: Lower costs (e.g., for Warta in Poland: -37%) Independent risk control and compliance Better investment process KBC TFI CSOB AM & IC K&H SFIM Poland Czech Rep Hungary 4 companies of KB and Warta 4 KBC-owned AM entities 2 KBC-owned AM entities (incl. ABN- AMRO AM) Integration of companies (situation as at 1Q 2005) KBC AM Former entities

15 15 Nationwide branch networks The density of KBC’s branch network is amongst the highest in the CEE region In the Czech Rep.: branches in 123 of the 264 municipalities having more than 5 000 inhabitants. Additionally, products distributed via dense network of PSB (Postal Bank), which covers all 264 municipalities In Slovenia: twice as many branches as the next competitor, being present in almost all municipalities having more than 5 000 inhabitants In Hungary: presence in all larger towns and in half of the smaller towns. Only OTP has denser branch network In Slovakia: branches in 58 of the 124 municipalities with more than 5 000 inhabitants In Poland: presence in almost all major cities and in 25% of the smaller cities, comparable to or greater than competitors with similar market share. Further branch openings may be considered (under review) Percent of towns with KBC Group branchDensity of KBC Group’s branch network

16 16 Centralized card purchasing & processing KBC card business: Portfolio of 7.5 million cards, of which 4.5 million smart cards Portfolio of 200 000 merchants Yearly volume of 500 million transactions Cards will be one of the key drivers for extending the retail activity in CEE Central card processing: enlarging scale standardized technology to prepare for future developments (SEPA) to reduce costs 0.00 € 0.02 € 0.04 € 0.06 € 0.08 € 0.10 € 0.12 € - 5001 0001 5002 0002 500 /trans million trans Centralized card purchasing: Licence contract to use same open technology Common supplier contract for purchase of cards Common supplier contract for personalizing the cards

17 17 Centralized cash management product Key decision criteria Single corporate e-Banking product: Local & cross-border payments and collections Statement reporting Benefits: Avoid multiple product development at Group level Savings on software licence fees Objective = > 5 000 users after 5 years Investment payback = 3.5 years Survey of multinational corporates

18 18 Centralized processing, cross-border payments Business case: co-sourcing of cross-border transactions will lead to lower costs for the entire KBC Group 2007 …2003200420052006 Sepa 2010 CEE pre-study legal/ fiscal Implementations in CEE 100 83 94

19 19 CEE entities: hands-on governance KBC Group Executive Committee CEE Management Committee Steering committees CEE Directorate CEE business co-ordinators & task forces CEE Group companies KBC expats (+ temporary presence via various projects) - General Manager - Co-ordination unit - Projects unit - Controlling unit Expats in banking: 35% of Management Board (of which 2 CEOs)* Expats in insurance: 28% of Management Board (of which 4 CEOs) Many KBC managers involved in CEE businesses and projects For each business area, co-ordinators supervising the area, looking for synergies CEE Directorate co-ordinates / supervises KBC’s management expats in CEE * Additionally 6 CEOs in AM and securities subsidiaries

20 20 Reminder: KBC’s presence in CEE Update on economic and financial background KBC’s opportunities Update on Poland Financial outlook Agenda

21 21 Update on Poland Restructuring milestones:

22 22 Update on Poland 1Q 2005 achievements: Portfolio risk profile: ü Portfolio quality improvement (NPL -20% y/y) ü Zero cost of risk in 1Q 2005 ü Safe coverage ratio level (67%, one of the highest in the banking sector) High net profit (23 m 1 ) and satisfactory ROE (21% 1 vs. 7% in 1Q 2004) Continuous improvement of Cost/Income ratio (76% 1 vs. 86% in 1Q 2004) Visible signs of growth acceleration: ü 18% increase in housing loans granted in PLN (y/y) ü 26% increase in loans granted in CHF(y/y) ü 75 000 new savings accounts (y/y) and 187% increase in saving accounts volume (y/y) ü 175% increase of mutual funds (y/y) Today, we believe we are in a better shape than ever. We even intend to accelerate organic growth 1 Statutory accounts

23 23 Reminder: KBC’s presence in CEE Update on economic and financial background KBC’s opportunities Update on Poland Financial outlook Agenda

24 24 Financial outlook RWA 2005-2007 CAGR Net profit 2005-2007 CAGR Loan-loss ratio Mid-term target Cost/Income Mid-term target Banking10% – 15% < 0.50%< 60% Net earned premium 2005-2007 CAGR Net profit 2004-2007 CAGR Net Combined Ratio Mid-term target Insurance15% – 25%25% - 35%95%


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