1. MEDIS is supported within the Programme on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development, Part A: Environment and Sustainable Development, Key Action 2: Global Change, Climate and Biodiversity; Contract no. EVK2-CT-2001-00092) http://www.uni-muenster.de/Umweltforschung/medis/index.html Reducing Climate-Change Related Vulnerabilities to Drought on Mediterranean Islands through Holistic Water Management Practices Manfred A. Lange and the MEDIS Consortium Center for Environmental Research University of Münster, Germany Manfred A. Lange and the MEDIS Consortium Center for Environmental Research University of Münster, Germany SICCIA; Grainau, Germany, June 28 – July 2, 2004

2. Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background  Global climate change will have various consequences for natural and human systems  In general, it will lead to an intensification of the water cycle  enhanced frequencies of floods and extreme precipitation events in regions traditionally prone to this threat and  increased water scarcity in already water deficient regions of the world  Shifts in the amount and timing of precipitation will have severe consequences for arid to semi-arid regions…  and will result in increased vulnerabilities of communities and ecosystems to water scarcity  The Mediterranean Basin is characterized by arid to semi- arid climate conditions  enhanced vulnerability to drought  Problems to be faced are exacerbated on islands of the Mediterranean as they rely on precipitation as the primary supply mechanism  Global climate change will have various consequences for natural and human systems  In general, it will lead to an intensification of the water cycle  enhanced frequencies of floods and extreme precipitation events in regions traditionally prone to this threat and  increased water scarcity in already water deficient regions of the world  Shifts in the amount and timing of precipitation will have severe consequences for arid to semi-arid regions…  and will result in increased vulnerabilities of communities and ecosystems to water scarcity  The Mediterranean Basin is characterized by arid to semi- arid climate conditions  enhanced vulnerability to drought  Problems to be faced are exacerbated on islands of the Mediterranean as they rely on precipitation as the primary supply mechanism

3. Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background  Vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity, adaptability)  Assuming that exposure and sensitivities are relatively stable  vulnerability  f (adaptability)  Reducing vulnerability requires effective adaptation strategies  In devising effective adaptation strategies, a number of aspects/dimensions need to be considered:  Physical/Environmental dimension  Economical/technical dimension  Social/Political dimension  Aspects will have to be considered holistically  interdisciplinarity  Views of stakeholders will be essential  stakeholder involvement  Vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity, adaptability)  Assuming that exposure and sensitivities are relatively stable  vulnerability  f (adaptability)  Reducing vulnerability requires effective adaptation strategies  In devising effective adaptation strategies, a number of aspects/dimensions need to be considered:  Physical/Environmental dimension  Economical/technical dimension  Social/Political dimension  Aspects will have to be considered holistically  interdisciplinarity  Views of stakeholders will be essential  stakeholder involvement Vulnerability reduction Adaptive strategies in water management Physical/ environmental dimension Economical/ technical dimension Social/ regulatory /poli-tical dimension Stakeholder Involvement

4. Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background  In the following, I will…  briefly describe the MEDIS project,  address a few concepts related to adaptation,  look at issues affecting present vulnerabilities to droughts related to the three aforementioned dimensions,  discuss briefly how global change might affect some of the vulnerabilities,  suggest various (but not comprehensively) strategies to enhance adaptive capacities,  and will concentrate on islands in the Mediterranean in the context of the MEDIS Project  In the following, I will…  briefly describe the MEDIS project,  address a few concepts related to adaptation,  look at issues affecting present vulnerabilities to droughts related to the three aforementioned dimensions,  discuss briefly how global change might affect some of the vulnerabilities,  suggest various (but not comprehensively) strategies to enhance adaptive capacities,  and will concentrate on islands in the Mediterranean in the context of the MEDIS Project

5. MEDIS - Goals and Objectives  To put simply: How can we achieve a sustainable balance between supply and demand of water by taking into account various favourable and unfavourable factors affecting that balance and by complying with the requirements of the EU-WFD How can we achieve a sustainable balance between supply and demand of water by taking into account various favourable and unfavourable factors affecting that balance and by complying with the requirements of the EU-WFD

6. What is to be done? Assessment of present characteristics: Hydrology, agriculture, socio-economy Recommendations for a sustainable water management Consultation with main user groups and consensus building Hearings of experts; development of feasible/justifiable recommendations Proposals for a sustainable water management in the Mediterranean Compa- rison between islands Scena- rio studies A r o a d m a p Crete: Island Report Stakeholder Involvement/ input =Intra-Island consultation =Inter-Island consultation Recomm- endations EC & capitals

7. Where do we work?

8. Who is doing the work?

9. Adaptation/Adaptive Capacity  Mobilizing adaptive capacity requires:  resources available for adaptation  ability of those who need to adapt to deploy these resources effectively and their readiness/willingness to do so  Such resources include: natural resources, human and financial capital, knowledge of risks appropriate social institutions geared to managing these risks appropriate technologies and methods  Stringent policies and regulations are an essential prerequisite for the development of adaptation measures  Adaptation strategies require the incorporation of sustainable development principles  Mobilizing adaptive capacity requires:  resources available for adaptation  ability of those who need to adapt to deploy these resources effectively and their readiness/willingness to do so  Such resources include: natural resources, human and financial capital, knowledge of risks appropriate social institutions geared to managing these risks appropriate technologies and methods  Stringent policies and regulations are an essential prerequisite for the development of adaptation measures  Adaptation strategies require the incorporation of sustainable development principles

10. Physical/Environmental Dimension  Mediterranean Basin has experienced continuous decline in precipitation  this trend is likely to continue  Substantial evaporation of available water  further increase to be expected G. Constantinou, pers. comm.

11. Physical /Environmental Dimension  Demand likely to increase in the foreseeable future, particularly under conditions of global change Projections of water demand for different sectors on Cyprus, assuming that agricultural demand will stay constant and not considering any global change effects G. Constantinou, pers. comm.

12. Physical /Environmental Dimension (a)(b)(c)(d) Maximum 2m-temperatures for 1960-1990 (a) and 2070-2100 (b) and summer precipitations for 1960-1990 (c) and 2070-2100 (d) derived from the regional climate REMO 5.1 and based on the Hadley-Centre-GCM HadAM3H (Semmler, pers. comm.)  Regional climate model results suggest increasing temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation for the Mediterranean Basin

13. Physical /Environmental Dimension: Adaptation Options  Reduce water consumption  Water pricing; quotas  Incentives (subsidise water saving not consumption)  Change water allocation  Support sectors accounting for maximum GDP and employment, create incentives to save water for water-intensive sectors  Reduce losses  Eliminate loss of water to sea (SGD)  Reduce losses and contamination of water in distribution networks (e.g., on Cyprus: annual loss of 40 Mm 3 = 15% of total demand; 23% of total domestic demand; in Paphos: 30%)  Increase utilisation of additional water resources  Waste water recycling  Utilisation of brackish water  Rainwater harvesting  Reduce water consumption  Water pricing; quotas  Incentives (subsidise water saving not consumption)  Change water allocation  Support sectors accounting for maximum GDP and employment, create incentives to save water for water-intensive sectors  Reduce losses  Eliminate loss of water to sea (SGD)  Reduce losses and contamination of water in distribution networks (e.g., on Cyprus: annual loss of 40 Mm 3 = 15% of total demand; 23% of total domestic demand; in Paphos: 30%)  Increase utilisation of additional water resources  Waste water recycling  Utilisation of brackish water  Rainwater harvesting

14. Economical Dimension  Agriculture predominant user of water on the islands  However, agriculture contributes only insignificantly to GDP (1,5%)and employment (2,4%) on Mallorca  Tourism, which requires significantly less water contributes substantially to the GDP (83,4%) and employment (73,3%) of Mallorca  Both sectors likely to suffer from reduced water availability  However, agriculture contributes only insignificantly to GDP (1,5%)and employment (2,4%) on Mallorca  Tourism, which requires significantly less water contributes substantially to the GDP (83,4%) and employment (73,3%) of Mallorca  Both sectors likely to suffer from reduced water availability

15. Economical Dimension: Adaptation Options  Support sectors with high economic potential and small water needs  Change agricultural practices (quantity, quality of water)  Eliminate/reduce subsidies for water prices  Encourage changes in cultivated crops to less-water intensive species  Promote cultivation of crops that have a high potential on the domestic and the foreign market (eliminate wasting products and water)  Provide assistance in capacity building of farmers and for investments in modern irrigation technology  Provide economic incentives for rational water use in all sectors  Support sectors with high economic potential and small water needs  Change agricultural practices (quantity, quality of water)  Eliminate/reduce subsidies for water prices  Encourage changes in cultivated crops to less-water intensive species  Promote cultivation of crops that have a high potential on the domestic and the foreign market (eliminate wasting products and water)  Provide assistance in capacity building of farmers and for investments in modern irrigation technology  Provide economic incentives for rational water use in all sectors

16. Social/Political Dimension  Inadequate/false perception of the water issue (‘water is only a problem when it is scarce’)  Competition for water (sectors, regions, municipalities, individual users)  Illegal extraction (‘wild’ wells)  Traditional ‘ownership’ (‘this water belongs to our family…’)  Existing rules and regulations are not/only inadequately monitored  Violations of laws and directives are not penalized  Inadequate/false perception of the water issue (‘water is only a problem when it is scarce’)  Competition for water (sectors, regions, municipalities, individual users)  Illegal extraction (‘wild’ wells)  Traditional ‘ownership’ (‘this water belongs to our family…’)  Existing rules and regulations are not/only inadequately monitored  Violations of laws and directives are not penalized

17. Social/Political Dimension  Complex, diverse and overlapping responsibilities on the national scale Main structure of water administration on Cyprus I. Iacovidis, pers. Comm.

18. Social/Political Dimension  Water management governed by central/’outside’ jurisdiction (‘Athens bureaucrats’)  Political decisions/directives from abroad (EU- WFD)  Political decisions on new laws and regulations often with insufficient/false factual basis  Inadequate policies aimed at promoting particular utilisation of water resources  Inadequate agricultural policies and recommendations  Water management governed by central/’outside’ jurisdiction (‘Athens bureaucrats’)  Political decisions/directives from abroad (EU- WFD)  Political decisions on new laws and regulations often with insufficient/false factual basis  Inadequate policies aimed at promoting particular utilisation of water resources  Inadequate agricultural policies and recommendations

19. Social/Political Dimension: Adaptation Options  Public awareness campaign (water use, ownership, conflicts); capacity building  Implement a more complete monitoring of water extraction  Improve enforcement of existing rules and regulations  Simplify/enhance efficiency of water administration  Transfer of power to regional and local decision makers  Encourage stakeholder-controlled water management structures  Ensure/improve adequate factual basis for political decision making  Public awareness campaign (water use, ownership, conflicts); capacity building  Implement a more complete monitoring of water extraction  Improve enforcement of existing rules and regulations  Simplify/enhance efficiency of water administration  Transfer of power to regional and local decision makers  Encourage stakeholder-controlled water management structures  Ensure/improve adequate factual basis for political decision making

20. ConclusionsConclusions  The (future) supply of water on Mediterranean islands appears critical and requires new strategies that are to be based on a solid factual foundation  Current climate projections for the Mediterranean Basin imply enhanced summer temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation  Reducing vulnerabilities to drought will have to be based on holistically and interdisciplinarily derived strategies/measures  First recommendations aimed at reducing vulnerabilities and at realizing sustainable water management have been formulated in the context of environmental, economical and social/political dimensions  Without an appropriate involvement of major stakeholders on the islands, such solutions will not be feasible  The (future) supply of water on Mediterranean islands appears critical and requires new strategies that are to be based on a solid factual foundation  Current climate projections for the Mediterranean Basin imply enhanced summer temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation  Reducing vulnerabilities to drought will have to be based on holistically and interdisciplinarily derived strategies/measures  First recommendations aimed at reducing vulnerabilities and at realizing sustainable water management have been formulated in the context of environmental, economical and social/political dimensions  Without an appropriate involvement of major stakeholders on the islands, such solutions will not be feasible