1. Introduction to climate change work in Bangladesh A.K.M. Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET) Training workshop on Regional Climate Modeling using PRECIS February 14-18, 2010, Dhaka, Bangladesh

2. Outline  Introduction to Climate Change Study Cell at BUET  Climate Change Conditions of Bangladesh  Regional Climate Change Modeling using PRECIS for Bangladesh

3. Climate Change Study Cell at BUET

4. Climate Change Study Cell  IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008.  The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh. Launching Ceremony On March 08, 2009 Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Management

5. Institution Frameworks Syndicate BOG Director Coordinator Advisory committee Liaison Committee Research Teams IWFMCCSC

6. Activities in 2008 Short courses  Two short courses on "Climate Change Training for Water Professionals”, were held on 17-19 November and 18-20 October of 2008 at DCE, BUET.  Short Course on "Climate Change Risks and Adaptation in Water Sector" held on 10-11 February, 2008 at DCE, BUET.

7. Activities in 2009 M.Sc. Course in Climate Change Risk Management offered at IWFM Course web site- http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam/ climatecourse2009.html In future Certificate course will be offered for professionals

8. Activities in 2009 Total 20 participants will attend this workshop from various Gov. and Non-Gov. organizations. This workshop will be organized in collaboration with Met Office, UK and funded by DFID, UK.

9. Upcoming – Capacity Building Program In response to the call for project proposals for “Climate Change Trust Fund” from Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF), CCSC has submitted a project proposal which include-  Fifteen Research Proposals on climate change  Computational Facility Development for Regional Climate Change Modeling  Student Fellowship  International Conference Organizations  Institutional Strengthen of the Cell

10. Visit our Website for more information http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/

11. Changing Climate of Bangladesh

12. Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007) Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0 C per 100 years

13. Trends of Temperature of Bangladesh (1947-2007) Max. Temp. = 0.63 0 C/100 year Min. Temp. = 1.37 0 C/100 year

14. Meteorological Observational Stations in Bangladesh

15. IDStationLatitudeLongitudeAltitudeMax. Temp. ( 0 C per yr.) Min. Temp. ( 0 C per yr.) 11704Barisal22.7290.372.1 m0.0077-0.0163 11706Bhola22.6890.654.3 m0.01700.0206 10408Bogra24.8589.3717.9 m0.01170.0404 11316Chandpur23.2390.74.9 m0.01630.0161 11921Chittagong22.3591.8233.2 m0.02240.009 41926Chuadanga23.6588.8211.6 m-0.00380.0217 11313Comilla23.4391.189 m0.0049-0.0009 11927Cox's Bazar21.4591.972.1 m0.02950.022 11111Dhaka23.7890.386.5 m0.01190.0225 10120Dinajpur25.6588.6837.6 m-0.02130.0151 11505Faridpur23.9389.858.1 m0.0275 -- 11805Feni23.0391.426.4 m0.01740.0331 11814Hatiya22.4591.12.4 m0.0261-0.0202 10910Ishardi24.1589.0312.9 m0.00320.0037 11407Jessore23.289.336 m0.01470.0113 12110Khepupara21.9890.231.8 m0.02660.0037 11604Khulna22.7889.532.1 m0.0037-0.0053 11925Kutubdia21.8291.852.7 m0.04160.0248 11513Madaripur23.1790.187 m0.0047 -- 11809Maijdicourt22.8791.14.9 m0.01930.0204 41958Mongla22.4789.61.8 m0.04300.0104 10609Mymensing24.7390.4218 m-0.00860.0086 12103Patuakhali22.3390.331.5 m0.03280.026 10320Rajshahi24.3788.719.5 m0.01100.0027 12007Rangamati22.6392.1568.9 m-0.0039-0.0178 10208Rangpur25.7389.2732.6 m-0.02590.0281 11916Sandwip22.4891.432 m0.0074-0.0182 11610Satkhira22.7289.084 m0.00650.0107 41858Sayedpur25.7588.9239.6 m0.0266 -- 11912Sitakunda22.6391.77.3 m0.0581-0.0212 10724Srimangal24.391.7322 m0.00300.0237 10705Sylhet24.991.8833.5 m -- 0.0057 41909Tangail24.2589.9310.2 m0.0174-0.0234 11929Teknaf20.8792.35 m0.02420.0236 Trends of Temperature For 34 ground measuring Stations of BMD

16. Monthly temperature over Bangladesh (1948-2007)

17. Month-wise Trends MonthMax. Temp. ( 0 C per yr.) Min. Temp. (0C per yr.) January-0.01420.0104 February0.00000.0340 March-0.01170.0220 April-0.01420.0121 May0.00100.0052 June0.01390.0103 July0.01160.0075 August0.01830.0081 September0.00700.0031 October0.01780.0078 November0.02700.0289 December0.01470.0270

18. Change of mean Temperature( 0 C/year)

19. Average Temperature in January (1948-2007) Daily Maximum Daily Minimum

20. Maximum Temperature Maximum increase: 0.0581 at Shitakunda Minimum increase: -0.026 at Rangpur Minimum Temperature Maximum increase: 0.0404 at Bogra Minimum increase: -0.023 at Tangail Spatial Distribution of Trends of Temperature (1947-2007)

21. Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh  Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges.  Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation  Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise  Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards “Climate Refugees”  Effect on health and livelihood of coastal people.  Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans.  Hampered Food Security & Social Security.

22. The Sundarbans..Mangrove forest?

23. Facing Climate Change National Awareness building –Capacity Building through Training –Innovative Research for knowledge generations Mitigation –Reduce Co 2 emission, Use Green technology –Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc. Adaptation – –Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads, Houses –Salinity tolerant crops, Forestation, alternative livelihood, improve warning system, migrations Global Awareness & Justice –– Kyoto Protocol, COP15, COP16…. Raise our voice !

24. Regional Climate Change Modeling for Bangladesh

25. Regional Climate change modeling in Bangladesh PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET. Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3). LBC data available for baseline, A2, B2, A1B scenarios up to 2100. Predictions for every hour. Needs more than 100 GB free space.

26. Domain used in PRECIS experiment

27. Topography of Experiment Domain Zoom over Bangladesh Simulation Domain = 88 x 88 Resolution = 0.44 degree

28. Predicted Change of Mean Temperature ( 0 C) using A1B 2050 2090 Baseline = 2000

29. Predicting Maximum Temperature using A2 Scenarios [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

30. Predicting Minimum Temperature using A2 Scenarios

31. Change of Mean Rainfall (mm/d) using A1B Scenarios 2050 2090 Baseline = 2000

32. Predicting Rainfall using A2 Scenarios [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

33. Change of mean climatic variables of Bangladesh using A1B Scenarios Temperate ( 0 C) Rainfall (mm/d)

34. Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/d) Month19902000201020202030204020502060207020802090 January2.610.340.03 0.420.991.240.210.121.661.02 February0.610.551.381.011.241.880.451.100.531.610.76 March2.421.024.823.041.873.070.993.622.841.273.59 April5.841.3811.465.992.827.8411.416.608.398.743.66 May 10.0 35.5910.366.4211.9218.1633.4716.5329.4711.2911.96 June 17.0 67.9014.7913.5910.8421.4812.8712.937.2410.0411.70 July7.209.077.978.137.3211.265.6210.2610.316.339.98 August7.395.465.113.929.796.677.4613.6010.659.139.59 September4.496.715.477.837.518.8210.2910.8010.528.187.48 October5.681.484.162.766.163.111.893.942.558.847.58 November0.140.160.410.910.030.730.081.910.271.230.51 December0.140.060.100.260.060.181.090.040.130.320.03

35. Monthly Average Temperature ( 0 C) Month19902000201020202030204020502060207020802090 January 14.7 415.0814.6315.9415.6617.6619.5216.4917.6821.5520.88 February 14.2 721.1820.1822.3620.6120.6523.1425.3724.5023.0023.32 March 24.2 526.3425.6825.6628.8226.7029.2329.0429.7128.5328.84 April 27.9 532.3629.1031.2834.0731.9631.2932.6432.8131.5334.52 May 29.5 132.1132.1633.1731.9732.3729.3132.0032.5933.8835.62 June 29.1 831.4230.6631.4430.8231.5631.9431.1837.2434.8035.07 July 28.5 928.2328.8828.9929.3530.2830.5830.4531.0331.7630.44 August 28.1 928.2429.0629.6528.6230.3430.2629.3130.1229.9330.09 September 28.0 227.2928.6528.1128.5830.7229.0729.7930.7229.0129.87 October 25.2 425.2127.1027.2926.1428.4828.2229.2529.7227.8229.09 November 19.4 420.2021.0320.5221.0623.2122.6422.0423.7625.5226.30 December 14.4 817.3717.8618.5316.2418.8519.9918.2619.3620.9020.80

36. Summary  Analysis of the historic data (1948-2007) shows that daily maximum and minimum temperature has been increased with a rate of 0.63 0 C and 1.37 0 C per 100 years respectively.  PRECIS simulation for Bangladesh using A1B climate change scenarios showed that mean temperature will be increased at a constant rate 4 0 C per 100 year from the base line year 2000.  On the other hand, mean rainfall will be increased by 4mm/d in 2050 and then decreased by 2.5mm/d in 2100 from base line year 2000.

37. Recommendations In future, Climate change predictions will be generated in more finer spatial scale(~25km). PRECIS model will be simulated with other Boundary condition data such as ECHAM5 using A1B scenarios. Results will be compared with other regional climate models such as RegCM3 etc.