1. Climate Change and Agriculture in the South-West Coastal of Bangladesh Presented By- Malay Krishna Madhu Student Id:1009282004 & SK. Abu Jahid Student Id:1009282005

2. Introduction Climate change (CC) is the most alarming issue facing the world today. The consequences of climate variability and CC are potentially more significant for the poor in developing countries. The impact of CC on agriculture will be huge and substantive. Coastal people are highly exposed to a range of natural hazards, from storms and cyclones to widespread flooding and coastal erosion Year Mean Temperature Change (0C) Mean Rainfall Change(mm) Sea Level Rise(cm) Annual Dec, Jan, Feb June, July Aug Annual Dec, Jan, Feb June, July Aug Baseline Average 2030 1.01.10.8+3.8-1.2+4.714 20501.41.61.1+5.6-1.7+6.832 2.42.71.9+9.7-3.0+11.888 Source: Agrawala et al 2003:IPCC2001, 2007 Table: Potential Change of Climatic Variability

3. Objectives of the Study To know the present scenarios of the climate change (CC) impacts on agricultural sector in the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh. To identify the potential impacts of climate change (CC) on agricultural sector in the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh

4. Methodology Firstly relevant recent papers, Journals of the CC and the report of IPCC are reviewed. Then the driving forces of CC have been identified. There after the damaging events of CC and its associated impacts on agriculture have been recognized. And finally, the potential impacts of CC on agriculture mainly crop production are predicted. Figure: The overall methodology of study

5. Results and Discussion Floods Flood affects agricultural production considerably. Prolonged floods would tend to delay Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman production The flood in1988 caused reduction of agricultural production by some 45 percent. In 1998, Aman production potential of some 2 to 2.3 Mha could not be realized. Source: Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: Consequences on Development, 2009 Figure : Crop damage (MT) due to historical flood

6. Cyclones-Storm Surges In terms of CC, 1°C increase in sea surface temperatures could increase tropical cyclone intensity by 10 percent Cyclones bring severe winds, storm surges, and flood that impact on lives, crops and property. Cyclone SIDR, on 15 November 2007, struck the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh and total damage for the crops sub‐sector is estimated at about BDT 28.4 billion. The loss of production in all crops is 1.3 million metric tons, of which 63 percent (0.8 million metric tons) is aman rice. Cyclone AILA, which struck the southern coast of Bangladesh on May 25, 2009 amount of damaged crops is estimated to be 340,660 acres. Results and Discussion (cont….)

7. Sea Level Rise-Salinity intrusion Salinity intrusion would be a more acute problem in the South-West coastal region. The South-West coastal region of Bangladesh would experience severe drainage congestion due to 62cm sea-level rise and embankments will be overtopped due to increased water level in the peripheral rivers. The adverse effects of saline water intrusion will be significant on coastal agriculture and the availability of fresh water for public water supply will fall. On an average year, increased salinity not only causes a net reduction of about 0.2 Mmt of rice production, but also diminishes potentials of Boro and wheat cultivation in saline affected soils of the coastal areas. Results and Discussion (cont….)

8. The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Higher discharge and low drainage capacity, in combination with increased backwater effects would increase frequency of such devastating floods under climate change scenarios. Prolonged floods would tend to delay Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman production. On an average year, increased salinity not only causes a net reduction of about 0.2 Mmt of rice production, but also diminishes potentials of Boro and wheat cultivation in saline affected soils of the coastal areas. Changes in climate may affect irrigation requirements for all the three cropping seasons: Rabi, Kharif-I, and Kharif-II. Increase in temperature will lead to escalating irrigation demands by 200 Mm3 for March only Results and Discussion (cont….)

9. The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (cont….) SimulationHYV AusHYV AmanHYV BoroWheat (‘000’ tones) Percent Change (‘000’ tones) Percent Change (‘000’ tones) Percent Change (‘000’ tones Percent Change Baseline(1994-95)70204,48406,20008900 CCCM512-274,170-76,014-3712-20 GFDL512-273,901-135,766-7347-61 330 ppmv CO 2 +2 0 C569-193,901-135,952-4561-37 330 ppmv CO 2 +4 0 C435-383,363-255,766-7285-68 580 ppmv CO 2 +0 0 C920315,605-257,626231,22838 580 ppmv CO 2 +2 0 C793134,977117,44020881 580 ppmv CO 2 +4 0 C660-64,52917,19216534-40 660 ppmv CO 2 +0 0 C983405,964338,060301,31748 660 ppmv CO 2 +2 0 C856225,336197,874279709 660 ppmv CO 2 +4 0 C73044,88897,62623614-31 Table: Rice and Wheat Production under Different Climate Change Scenarios Source: Karim et al., 1998

10. ScenarioCrop YieldsSea Level RiseFlooding Current Climate In 1988, yields were down 45% because of flooding. 2020 Based on interpolation of published data to be consistent with climate change scenarios; rice yields have increases of up to 5%. With less optimistic assumptions about the CO2 fertilization effect, generally have yield change -5% to +1%. Based on interpolation, a 0.1 m SLR would inundate 0.2 MMT of production < 1% of current total. Monsoonal floods increase yield loss. 2050Based on interpolation of published data to be consistent with climate change scenarios; rice yields have increases of up to 10%. With less optimistic assumptions about the CO2 fertilization effect, generally yield changes from few percent increase to 10% decrease. Pests and crop disease could reduce yields further. 0.3 SLR inundate 0.5 MMT of production ~ 2% of current total. Monsoonal floods increase yield loss. The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (cont….) Table: The potential impact of Sea Level Rise and Flooding on Crop Yield Source: World Bank,2006

11. Conclusion Floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges and Sea level rise and Salinity intrusion are the continuing features of the South-West region of Bangladesh. Crop production is more vulnerable sector in the coastal region. Developing countries like Bangladesh is not responsible for CC, but they are severely affected. On the other hand, developed countries are main culprit for CC. If the situation is continued 17% of the total area of Bangladesh will be inundated. For resolving the potential impact of CC as soon as possible the developed countries must be reached in a commitment, that they stop the responsible activities of CC. To cope with the present situation of CC in agriculture sector of Bangladesh, research should be conducted for introducing of salinity and flood tolerant variety of rice. Otherwise, the food security will be hampered in the near future.

12. Recommendations New agricultural practices, such as floating bed cultivation system Carry out research on new varieties e.g. Saline and flood tolerant crops Coastal dykes to protect flood damage Conference of the Parties (COP-15) did not provide as our expectation, in the next conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP- 16 have to raise our voice.

13. 13 THANKS TO ALL