1. CS 188: Artificial Intelligence Spring 2007 Lecture 14: Bayes Nets III 3/1/2007 Srini Narayanan – ICSI and UC Berkeley

2. Announcements  Office Hours this week will be on Friday  (11-1).  Assignment 2 grading  Midterm 3/13  Review 3/8 (next Thursday)  Midterm review materials up over the weekend.  Extended office hours next week  (Thursday 11-1, Friday 2:30-4:30)

3. Representing Knowledge

4. Inference  Inference: calculating some statistic from a joint probability distribution  Examples:  Posterior probability:  Most likely explanation: R T B D L T’

5. Inference in Graphical Models  Queries  Value of information  What evidence should I seek next  Sensitivity Analysis  What probability values are most critical  Explanation  e.g., Why do I need a new starter motor  Prediction  e.g., What would happen if my fuel pump stops working

6. Inference Techniques  Exact Inference  Inference by enumeration  Variable elimination  Approximate Inference/ Monte Carlo  Prior Sampling  Rejection Sampling  Likelihood weighting  Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC)

7. Reminder: Alarm Network

8. Inference by Enumeration  Given unlimited time, inference in BNs is easy  Recipe:  State the marginal probabilities you need  Figure out ALL the atomic probabilities you need  Calculate and combine them  Example:

9. Example Where did we use the BN structure? We didn’t!

10. Example  In this simple method, we only need the BN to synthesize the joint entries

11. Normalization Trick Normalize

12. Nesting Sums  Atomic inference is extremely slow!  Slightly clever way to save work:  Move the sums as far right as possible  Example:

13. Example

14. Evaluation Tree  View the nested sums as a computation tree:  Still repeated work: calculate P(m | a) P(j | a) twice, etc.

15. Variable Elimination: Idea  Lots of redundant work in the computation tree  We can save time if we carry out the summation right to left and cache all intermediate results into objects called factors  This is the basic idea behind variable elimination

16. Basic Objects  Track objects called factors  Initial factors are local CPTs  During elimination, create new factors  Anatomy of a factor: Variables introduced Variables summed out Factor argument variables

17. Basic Operations  First basic operation: join factors  Combining two factors:  Just like a database join  Build a factor over the union of the domains  Example:

18. Basic Operations  Second basic operation: marginalization  Take a factor and sum out a variable  Shrinks a factor to a smaller one  A projection operation  Example:

19. Example

21. General Variable Elimination  Query:  Start with initial factors:  Local CPTs (but instantiated by evidence)  While there are still hidden variables (not Q or evidence):  Pick a hidden variable H  Join all factors mentioning H  Project out H  Join all remaining factors and normalize

22. Variable Elimination  What you need to know:  VE caches intermediate computations  Polynomial time for tree-structured graphs!  Saves time by marginalizing variables as soon as possible rather than at the end  Approximations  Exact inference is slow, especially when you have a lot of hidden nodes  Approximate methods give you a (close) answer, faster

23. Sampling  Basic idea:  Draw N samples from a sampling distribution S  Compute an approximate posterior probability  Show this converges to the true probability P  Outline:  Sampling from an empty network  Rejection sampling: reject samples disagreeing with evidence  Likelihood weighting: use evidence to weight samples

24. Prior Sampling Cloudy Sprinkler Rain WetGrass Cloudy Sprinkler Rain WetGrass

25. Prior Sampling  This process generates samples with probability …i.e. the BN’s joint probability  Let the number of samples of an event be  Then  I.e., the sampling procedure is consistent

26. Example  We’ll get a bunch of samples from the BN: c,  s, r, w c, s, r, w  c, s, r,  w c,  s, r, w  c, s,  r, w  If we want to know P(W)  We have counts  Normalize to get P(W) =  This will get closer to the true distribution with more samples  Can estimate anything else, too  What about P(C|  r)? P(C|  r,  w)? Cloudy Sprinkler Rain WetGrass C S R W

27. Rejection Sampling  Let’s say we want P(C)  No point keeping all samples around  Just tally counts of C outcomes  Let’s say we want P(C| s)  Same thing: tally C outcomes, but ignore (reject) samples which don’t have S=s  This is rejection sampling  It is also consistent (correct in the limit) c,  s, r, w c, s, r, w  c, s, r,  w c,  s, r, w  c, s,  r, w Cloudy Sprinkler Rain WetGrass C S R W

28. Likelihood Weighting  Problem with rejection sampling:  If evidence is unlikely, you reject a lot of samples  You don’t exploit your evidence as you sample  Consider P(B|a)  Idea: fix evidence variables and sample the rest  Problem: sample distribution not consistent!  Solution: weight by probability of evidence given parents BurglaryAlarm BurglaryAlarm

29. Likelihood Sampling Cloudy Sprinkler Rain WetGrass Cloudy Sprinkler Rain WetGrass

30. Likelihood Weighting  Sampling distribution if z sampled and e fixed evidence  Now, samples have weights  Together, weighted sampling distribution is consistent Cloudy Rain C S R W =

31. Likelihood Weighting  Note that likelihood weighting doesn’t solve all our problems  Rare evidence is taken into account for downstream variables, but not upstream ones  A better solution is Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), more advanced  We’ll return to sampling for robot localization and tracking in dynamic BNs Cloudy Rain C S R W

32. Summary  Exact inference in graphical models is tractable only for polytrees.  Variable elimination caches intermediate results to make the exact inference process more efficient for a given for a given query.  Approximate inference techniques use a variety of sampling methods and can scale to large models.  NEXT: Adding dynamics and change to graphical models

33. Bayes Net for insurance