1. Closing the Loop: Modeling the coho salmon life cycle in the context of habitat, climate, and management Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua, Bob Francis, and Vera Agostini

2.           OCN Coho Queets River  Air Temperature Data  Streamflow Data OCN Oregon Coastal Natural Coho salmon Aggregate of 13 basins Rain-fed streams Threatened status (on and off)

3. The OCN Problem: OCN Recruits (t+1) and Spawners (t-2)

4. OCN Recruits (t+1) and OPIH survival (t)

5. OCN smolts and smolts/spawner reconstructed from OPIH- and GAM-estimated marine survivals. 1992 estimate omitted from analysis.

6. Environmental data sets -- freshwater 1969-1999 smolt year Stream Flow –From 6 USGS gauging stations Monthly mean flow Standardized at each station, then averaged Air Temperature –From 3 WRCC locations Annual mean air temperature Standardized at each station, then averaged

8. Partial plots for OCN smolts Winter Flow (t1)Spring Flow (t1) Fall TransitionvFall TransitionAnnual Temperature

9. Observed and fitted OCN smolts Year Smolts

11. So why should we believe this? One basin Glacier-fed 1981-2000 smolt years Smolts and spawners measured directly No dams Flow data from USGS -- one station Air temperature data from WRCC -- one station Because I repeated the analysis with a completely independent data set from the Queets River, Washington.

12. Annual Temperature Winter Flow (t1) Smolts Year Results for Queets Smolts

14. The bottom line: Marine and freshwater environmental variables are correlated so that good (poor) marine survival is associated with good (poor) freshwater production. YearSST.JFM.t0TransUW.AMJSST.JFM.t1 SST.JFM.t00.4661 Trans0.2460.2251 UW.AMJ-0.239-0.196-0.4621 SST.JFM.t10.4390.1340.261-0.1401 Fall Trans0.058-0.019-0.2350.0110.124 P4-0.054-0.1250.3520.175-0.054 P50.1560.0470.468-0.3990.082 Ann Temp0.6760.3750.424-0.4610.359 Marine Freshwater

15. OO ++ Spawners EarlyLate fecundity Eggs * * OO ++ Population Dynamics Freshwater Habitat Climate Patterns Marine Survival Harvest Management Metapopulation Dynamics

16. = 200 thousand <= 35%

17. Local Extinction Probabilities with Zero Harvest and Two Harvest Policies

18. DON’T PANIC! The model is definitive, reality may vary.

19. Nine Questions to Validate Models 1. Is the structure adequate to serve the purposes for which it will be used? 2. What characteristics of the simulated system have been left out or simplified? 3. What might the effects be? 4. How do model structure and behavior compare to similar models? 5. How are uncertainty and error incorporated into the analysis, and how do the results depend on uncertainties and assumptions?

20. Nine Questions to Validate Models (cont'd) 6. Are the parameter definitions and ranges justifiable? 7. Does the model produce expected behaviors for ordinary, as well as extraordinary cases-i.e., have the authors defined the range over which the model is valid, and the circumstances under which the model is questionable or invalid? 8. Does the model respond appropriately and usefully to simulated policies? 9. How does the analysis relate to the problem as it is defined, and the conclusions drawn?

21. Lawson 1993

22. PDO Projected by Hadley Centre Model

23. Peter Lawson NMFS/NWFSC 2030 SE Marine Science Drive Newport, OR 97365 541-867-0430 peter.w.lawson@noaa.gov