1. Missing collaborator

2. Conceptual Overview SHIRAZ Landscape Processes Land Use Freshwater Habitat Biological Response Land use & landscape processes affect habitat Freshwater habitat affects productivity & capacity

3. The SHIRAZ model Developed for Muckelshoot Tribe in WA to evaluate ESA recovery planning for salmon Uses flexible life history, with reach by reach specification of habitat characteristics Basic structure can be simplified and adapted to meet various needs (i.e. it’s a framework) Built with Visual Basic & integrates with Excel

4. Alternative life histories Spawners Adults Spawners Eggs Fry First winter residents Smolts Ocean residents Adults

5. Relate life history to habitat Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Habitat

6. Multistage Beverton-Holt Model (Mousalli & Hilborn 1986) N s ≡ individuals alive at stage s p ≡ max. survival rate from s  s+1 ≡ “productivity” c ≡ max. N producible at s+1 ≡ “capacity”

7. Key Attributes In general Freshwater survival driven by relationships between habitat, p, & c c determined by quantity of habitat p determined by quality of habitat Also assume Freshwater survival is density-dependent Marine survival is density-independent

8. Habitat Variables Inherent “hard-wired” 1) spawning area 2) rearing area 3) % fines 4) % impervious Generic –Increase or decrease c & p around a “reference” level –Multiplier specified by a general quadratic relationship –Based on difference between present state and reference Multiplier = exp[f 1 (state – ref) + f 2 (state – ref) 2 ]

9. Example of Habitat Relationship

10. Changing habitat variables H max 0 trend<0 trend>0 2) Intervention (i.e. bulk addition or removal) 1) Underlying trend (i.e. annual increase or decrease) H max 0 Time (+) (-)

11. Other model features Harvest strategies Ocean survival Hatchery influence

12. Integration with PRISM SHIRAZ Landscape Processes Land Use Freshwater Habitat Biological Response PRISM

13. Linking landscape to life history Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 FW Habitat Ocean Habitat Hydrology Landscape Processes Land use Climate

14. Current status Programming interactive improvements Researching habitat-fish relationships Researching hydrology-habitat relationships

15. Moving Forward Choose watershed (Snohomish or Puyallip/White?) Add variable hydrology inputs Allow for various “what if” scenarios

16. Example scenario Precipitation Stream flow % fines Fry survival Stream flow % fines Ambient Decrease Increase ?

17. Ocean regime shifts Evaluation of alternative harvest strategies should be robust to uncertainty about future ocean changes May want to include known ocean changes based on historical data

18. SHIRAZ Summary It’s a modeling framework Uses flexible life history Spatially explicit habitat characteristics Basic structure can be simplified and adapted