National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, NJ 08542 Evolution of Stratospheric.
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, NJ 08542 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov Evolution of Stratospheric Temperature in Climate Model Simulations John Austin
Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations Uniform, observed forcings (solar, GHGs, aerosols, SSTs/sea ice). 12 different models: complete climate models with reasonably complete stratospheric chemistry. Some runs have simplified tropospheric chemistry Some runs include several ensembles Period covered 1960-2050 mostly. Eyring et al. JGR, submitted. CCMval: Description and runs
AMTRAC polar spring lower stratosphere temperature evolution 1960-1999
AMTRAC polar lower stratospheric temperature evolution, 12-month running mean
AMTRAC (colored lines) and observed (black line) global average temperature for 1960 to 2005 weighted in the vertical by the MSU4 weighting function.
SOCOL MSU-4 equivalent temperature (25 months running mean) courtesy Schnadt et al.
Conclusions Past T trends are in reasonable agreement with observations for the period 1980-2000 in the lower and upper stratosphere. A solar cycle in T occurs in model results, but is smaller than the SSU solar cycle. In the global average, the lower stratosphere temperature evolution agrees well with observations. Tropopause T decreases 1960-2005 (0.16 K/decade) and increases thereafter (not shown) at 0.23 K/decade. Much work is yet to be done within CCMval and on individual models.