1. TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MITIGATION POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES major findings from the IPCC WG III contribution to the Third Assessment Report JOSÉ ROBERTO MOREIRA Biomass Users Network - Brazil CLA Chapter 3 WG III July 18, 2001

3. NO SHORTAGE OF FOSSIL FUELS

4. DECOUPLING BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND C EMISSION HAS OCCURRED BUT NOT ENOUGH USA China Japan Former USSR

5. DECOUPLING BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND C EMISSION HAS OCCURRED BUT NOT ENOUGH

6. TRANSPORTATION IS A MAJOR CONCERN

7. Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

9. GHG emissions per kilometer for different vehicle technologies Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001 gCeq/km

11. Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

12. Long term technical potential renewable and nuclear energy supply Nuclear 77-4620 EJ/yr on average over 100 years 2100 Total Energy Demand for SRES scenario ranges 515-2737 EJ/yr

13. Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

14. Carbon dioxide storage capacities Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001 Emissions to be avoided: 300-1500 GtC up to 2100

15. Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

16. Biological mitigation potential: 100GtC up to 2050 Emissions to be avoided: 300- 1500 GtC upto 2100

17. Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

19. Mitigation potential till 2020(cost<$100/tC) Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001 Compare to: 3,000-15,000 MtC/yr average to be avoided over 100 years

20. SRES Range Technological Opportunities 20002010 2020 Carbon Equivalent Emissions Technology improvements have the potential to reduce emissions by 2010 and 2020 to levels below those in 2000

21. Conclusions Technologies are available in the short term to stop the growth of global GHG emissions Technologies are available today to mitigate climate change in the long term The real problem of controlling emissions is to overcome the many political, economic, social and behavioural barriers to implementing mitigation options